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Physical activity trajectories and mortality: population based cohort study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To assess the prospective associations of baseline and long term trajectories of physical activity on mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. DESIGN:Population based cohort study. SETTING:Adults from the general population in the UK. PARTICIPANTS:14?599 men and women (aged 40 to 79) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort, assessed at baseline (1993 to 1997) up to 2004 for lifestyle and other risk factors; then followed to 2016 for mortality (median of 12.5 years of follow-up, after the last exposure assessment). MAIN EXPOSURE:Physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) derived from questionnaires, calibrated against combined movement and heart rate monitoring. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Multivariable proportional hazards regression models were adjusted for age, sex, sociodemographics, and changes in medical history, overall diet quality, body mass index, blood pressure, triglycerides, and cholesterol levels. RESULTS:During 171?277 person years of follow-up, 3148 deaths occurred. Long term increases in PAEE were inversely associated with mortality, independent of baseline PAEE. For each 1 kJ/kg/day per year increase in PAEE (equivalent to a trajectory of being inactive at baseline and gradually, over five years, meeting the World Health Organization minimum physical activity guidelines of 150 minutes/week of moderate-intensity physical activity), hazard ratios were: 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.82) for all cause mortality, 0.71 (0.62 to 0.82) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 0.89 (0.79 to 0.99) for cancer mortality, adjusted for baseline PAEE, and established risk factors. Similar results were observed when analyses were stratified by medical history of cardiovascular disease and cancer. Joint analyses with baseline and trajectories of physical activity show that, compared with consistently inactive individuals, those with increasing physical activity trajectories over time experienced lower risks of mortality from all causes, with hazard ratios of 0.76 (0.65 to 0.88), 0.62 (0.53 to 0.72), and 0.58 (0.43 to 0.78) at low, medium, and high baseline physical activity, respectively. At the population level, meeting and maintaining at least the minimum physical activity recommendations would potentially prevent 46% of deaths associated with physical inactivity. CONCLUSIONS:Middle aged and older adults, including those with cardiovascular disease and cancer, can gain substantial longevity benefits by becoming more physically active, irrespective of past physical activity levels and established risk factors. Considerable population health impacts can be attained with consistent engagement in physical activity during mid to late life.

SUBMITTER: Mok A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6592407 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Physical activity trajectories and mortality: population based cohort study.

Mok Alexander A Khaw Kay-Tee KT Luben Robert R Wareham Nick N Brage Soren S

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20190626

<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the prospective associations of baseline and long term trajectories of physical activity on mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.<h4>Design</h4>Population based cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Adults from the general population in the UK.<h4>Participants</h4>14 599 men and women (aged 40 to 79) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort, assessed at baseline (1993 to 1997) up to 2004 for lifestyle and oth ...[more]

PMID: 31243014

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Project description:BackgroundMaintaining physical function and delaying frailty are of significant importance in both quality of life and health longevity for successful aging. The objective of this study is to investigate whether different trajectories of long-term physical activity (PA) participation are associated with subsequent motor function declines and incident frailty in middle-aged and elderly adults.Materials and methodsData from 8,227 aged ≥ 50 years adults enrolled in the English Longitudinal Study of Aging were analyzed. Long-term PA participation trajectories were assessed using group-based trajectory modeling over the first 6-year period from wave 1 (2002-2003) to wave 4 (2008-2009). The longitudinal associations of PA trajectories with motor function declines and incident frailty were evaluated by a linear mixed model and Cox regression model, respectively, with follow-up of 10 years from wave 4 to wave 9 (2018-2019).ResultsFive distinct trajectories of long-term PA participation were identified in the aging cohort, including persistently low-active trajectory (N = 2,039), increasing active trajectory (N = 1,711), declining active trajectory (N = 216), persistently moderate-active trajectory (N = 2,254), and persistently high-active trajectory (N = 2,007). Compared with the persistently low-active group, the participants in persistently moderate- and high-active groups experienced significantly decelerated grip strength decline, decreased gait speed decline, and faster chair rises after multiple-adjustment. Similarly, participants maintaining moderate- and high-active PA were also associated with a lower risk of incident frailty (multiple-adjusted hazard ratio: 0.70, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.80, and 0.42, 95% CI: 0.36-0.49, respectively), compared with those with persistently low PA. Notably, the participants with the increasing active trajectory got similar health benefits as those with persistently moderate and high levels of PA.ConclusionIn addition to persistent PA, increasing PA was linked to a slower decline in motor function and lower risk of incident frailty in the cohort. Our findings suggest that regular PA is never too late.

Project description:Regular physical activity is recommended for all people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but the dose of physical activity required to gain mortality benefit in this population is not yet known. This aim of this study was to examine the associations of total and type-specific physical activity with mortality risk in people with COPD.People with COPD aged ?40 years were identified from the 1997 Health Survey for England and the 1998 and 2003 Scottish Health Survey cohorts. Self-reported total physical activity, moderate-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA), walking, domestic physical activity, and sport/exercise were assessed at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations between physical activity and mortality risk.Two thousand three hundred ninety-eight participants with COPD were included in the analysis and followed up for a mean 8.5 (SD 3.9) years. For both total physical activity and MVPA, we observed dose-response associations with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk, and with respiratory mortality risk to a lesser extent. Compared to those who reported no physical activity, participants who met the physical activity guidelines demonstrated the greatest reductions in all-cause (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.45-0.69), CVD (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.32-0.71) and respiratory mortality risk (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.24-0.67). Participants who reported a level of physical activity of at least half the dosage recommended by the guidelines also had a reduced risk of all-cause (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.56-1.00) and CVD mortality (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.26-0.88). Dose-response associations with mortality risk were demonstrated for walking and sport/exercise, but not domestic physical activity.We found a dose-response association between physical activity and all-cause and CVD mortality risk in people with COPD, with protective effects appearing at levels considerably lower than the general physical activity recommendations. People with COPD may benefit from engagement in low levels of physical activity, particularly walking and structured exercise.

Project description:BackgroundPhysical activity (PA) is a recognized contributor to healthy aging. However, the majority of studies exploring its associations with adverse outcomes in cohorts of older adults use single-time PA estimates, which do not consider its dynamic nature. The aim of the present study is to explore the presence of different PA trajectories in the Toledo Study of Healthy Aging and their association with adverse outcomes. Our hypothesis is that prospectively maintaining or increasing PA is associated with a reduced risk of adverse outcomes.MethodsWe used data from 1679 participants enrolled in the Toledo Study of Healthy Aging. Trajectories based on the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Cox and logistic regression were used to investigate associations between PA trajectories and mortality and hospitalization, and incident and worsening disability, respectively. Mortality was ascertained by linkage to the Spanish National Death Index; disability was evaluated through the Katz Index; and hospitalization was defined as the first admission to Toledo Hospital. Models were adjusted by age, sex, smoking, Charlson Index, education, cognitive impairment, polypharmacy, and Katz Index at Wave 2.ResultsWe found four PA-decreasing and one PA-increasing trajectories: high PA-consistent (n = 566), moderate PA-mildly decreasing (n = 392), low PA-increasing (n = 237), moderate PA-consistent (n = 191), and low PA-decreasing (n = 293). Belonging to the high PA-consistent trajectory group was associated with reduced risks of mortality as compared with the low PA-decreasing group [hazard ratio (HR) 1.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21-2.31] and hospitalization compared with the low PA-increasing and low PA-decreasing trajectory groups (HR 1.24; 95% CI = 1.004-1.54 and HR 1.25; 95% CI = 1.01-1.55, respectively) and with lower rates of incident [odds ratio (OR) 3.14; 95% CI = 1.59-6.19] and worsening disability (OR 2.16; 95% CI = 1.35-3.45) in relation to the low PA-decreasing trajectory group and at follow-up. Increasing PA during late life (low PA-increasing group) was associated with lower incident disability rates (OR 0.38; 95% CI = 0.19-0.82) compared with decreasing PA (low PA-decreasing group), despite similar baseline PA.ConclusionsOur results suggest that sustaining higher PA levels during aging might lead to healthy aging, characterized by a reduction in adverse outcomes. Our study supports the need for enhancing PA participation among older populations, with the goal of reducing personal and economic burden in a worldwide aging population.

Project description:IntroductionPrevious research on post-diagnosis smoking among cancer survivors mainly relied on smoking status, which may not fully reflect the impact of changes in smoking levels. This study aimed to evaluate mortality risk according to smoking trajectories among Korean male cancer survivors, using a trajectory approach to comprehensively capture smoking patterns.MethodsThe study included 110555 men diagnosed with cancer between 2002 and 2018 from the Korean National Health Information Database. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify post-diagnosis smoking trajectories among pre-diagnosis current smokers (n=45331). Cox hazards models were fitted to evaluate mortality risk according to smoking trajectories for pooled cancers, pooled smoking-related cancers, smoking-unrelated cancers, and gastric, colorectal, liver, and lung cancers.ResultsSmoking trajectories included light-smoking quitters, heavy-smoking quitters, consistent moderate smokers, and decreasing heavy smokers. Smoking significantly increased all-cause and cancer mortality risks in cancer patients for pooled cancers, pooled smoking-related cancers, and pooled smoking-unrelated cancers. Compared to non-smokers, all-cause mortality risk for pooled cancers significantly increased according to smoking trajectories:(AHR=1.33; 95% CI: 1.27-1.40), (AHR=1.39; 95% CI: 1.34-1.44), (AHR=1.44; 95% CI: 1.34-1.54), and (AHR=1.47; 95% CI: 1.36-1.60), respectively. Smoking increased all-cause and cancer mortality risks in gastric and colorectal cancer patients and cancer-specific mortality in lung cancer patients. The significant associations of smoking trajectories with all-cause and cancer mortality risks were primarily observed in 5-year survivors but not in short-term survivors. Among heavy smokers, smoking cessation significantly reduced all-cause mortality risk in the long-term.ConclusionsThe post-diagnosis smoking trajectory independently predicts cancer prognosis among male cancer patients. Proactive cessation support should be strengthened, particularly for those who smoke heavily.

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Physical activity trajectories and mortality: population based cohort study.

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Physical activity trajectories and mortality: population based cohort study.

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