A General Age-Specific Mortality Model With an Example Indexed by Child Mortality or Both Child and Adult Mortality.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Clark SJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6594863 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
A General Age-Specific Mortality Model With an Example Indexed by Child Mortality or Both Child and Adult Mortality.
Demography 20190601 3
The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one-third of all countries require mortality models to infer the complete age schedules of mortality that are required to conduct population estimates, projections/forecasts, and other tasks in demography and epidemiology. Models that relate child mortality to mortality at other ages are important because almost all countries have measures of child mortality. A general, parameterizable component model (SVD-Comp) of mortality is defined using the sin ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:Do the mechanisms underlying language in fact serve general-purpose functions that preexist this uniquely human capacity? To address this contentious and empirically challenging issue, we systematically tested the predictions of a well-studied neurocognitive theory of language motivated by evolutionary principles. Multiple metaanalyses were performed to examine predicted links between language and two general-purpose learning systems, declarative and procedural memory. The results tied lexical abilities to learning only in declarative memory, while grammar was linked to learning in both systems in both child first language and adult second language, in specific ways. In second language learners, grammar was associated with only declarative memory at lower language experience, but with only procedural memory at higher experience. The findings yielded large effect sizes and held consistently across languages, language families, linguistic structures, and tasks, underscoring their reliability and validity. The results, which met the predicted pattern, provide comprehensive evidence that language is tied to general-purpose systems both in children acquiring their native language and adults learning an additional language. Crucially, if language learning relies on these systems, then our extensive knowledge of the systems from animal and human studies may also apply to this domain, leading to predictions that might be unwarranted in the more circumscribed study of language. Thus, by demonstrating a role for these systems in language, the findings simultaneously lay a foundation for potentially important advances in the study of this critical domain.
| S-EPMC5816159 | biostudies-literature
Project description:National malaria death rates are difficult to assess because reliably diagnosed malaria is likely to be cured, and deaths in the community from undiagnosed malaria could be misattributed in retrospective enquiries to other febrile causes of death, or vice-versa. We aimed to estimate plausible ranges of malaria mortality in India, the most populous country where the disease remains common.Full-time non-medical field workers interviewed families or other respondents about each of 122,000 deaths during 2001-03 in 6671 randomly selected areas of India, obtaining a half-page narrative plus answers to specific questions about the severity and course of any fevers. Each field report was sent to two of 130 trained physicians, who independently coded underlying causes, with discrepancies resolved either via anonymous reconciliation or adjudication.Of all coded deaths at ages 1 month to 70 years, 2681 (3·6%) of 75,342 were attributed to malaria. Of these, 2419 (90%) were in rural areas and 2311 (86%) were not in any health-care facility. Death rates attributed to malaria correlated geographically with local malaria transmission ratesderived independently from the Indian malaria control programme. The adjudicated results show 205,000 malaria deaths per year in India before age 70 years (55,000 in early childhood, 30,000 at ages 5-14 years, 120,000 at ages 15-69 years); 1·8% cumulative probability of death from malaria before age 70 years. Plausible lower and upper bounds (on the basis of only the initial coding) were 125,000-277,000. Malaria accounted for a substantial minority of about 1·3 million unattended rural fever deaths attributed to infectious diseases in people younger than 70 years.Despite uncertainty as to which unattended febrile deaths are from malaria, even the lower bound greatly exceeds the WHO estimate of only 15,000 malaria deaths per year in India (5000 early childhood, 10?000 thereafter). This low estimate should be reconsidered, as should the low WHO estimate of adult malaria deaths worldwide.US National Institutes of Health, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute.
| S-EPMC3021416 | biostudies-other
Project description:People are having children later in life. The consequences for offspring adult survival have been little studied due to the need for long follow-up linked to parental data and most research has considered offspring survival only in early life. We used Swedish registry data to examine all-cause and cause-specific adult mortality (293,470 deaths among 5,204,433 people, followed up to a maximum of 80 years old) in relation to parental age. For most common causes of death adult survival was improved in the offspring of older parents (HR for all-cause survival was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.97) and 0.98 (0.97, 0.98) per five years of maternal and paternal age, respectively). The childhood environment provided by older parents may more than compensate for any physiological disadvantages. Within-family analyses suggested stronger benefits of advanced parental age. This emphasises the importance of secular trends; a parent's later children were born into a wealthier, healthier world. Sibling-comparison analyses can best assess individual family planning choices, but our results suggested a vulnerability to selection bias when there is extensive censoring. We consider the numerous causal and non-causal mechanisms which can link parental age and offspring survival, and the difficulty of separating them with currently available data.
| S-EPMC6864242 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Growth faltering describes a widespread phenomenon that height- and weight-for-age of children in developing countries collapse rapidly in the first two years of life. We study age-specific correlates of child nutrition using Demographic and Health Surveys from 56 developing countries to shed light on the potential drivers of growth faltering. Applying nonparametric techniques and exploiting within-mother variation, we find that maternal and household factors predict best the observed shifts and bends in child nutrition age curves. The documented interaction between age and maternal characteristics further underlines the need not only to provide nutritional support during the first years of life but also to improve maternal conditions.
| S-EPMC4740575 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundModel averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model.ObjectiveThe crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in the determination of optimal weights from a finite sample. If the weights are selected sub-optimally, this can affect the accuracy of the model-averaged forecasts. Instead of choosing the optimal weights, we consider trimming a set of models before equally averaging forecasts from the selected superior models. Motivated by Hansen et al. (Econometrica 79(2):453-497, 2011), we apply and evaluate the model confidence set procedure when combining mortality forecasts.Data and methodsThe proposed model averaging procedure is motivated by Samuels and Sekkel (International Journal of Forecasting 33(1):48-60, 2017) based on the concept of model confidence sets as proposed by Hansen et al. (Econometrica 79(2):453-497, 2011) that incorporates the statistical significance of the forecasting performance. As the model confidence level increases, the set of superior models generally decreases. The proposed model averaging procedure is demonstrated via national and sub-national Japanese mortality for retirement ages between 60 and 100+.ResultsIllustrated by national and sub-national Japanese mortality for ages between 60 and 100+, the proposed model-averaged procedure gives the smallest interval forecast errors, especially for males.ConclusionWe find that robust out-of-sample point and interval forecasts may be obtained from the trimming method. By robust, we mean robustness against model misspecification.
| S-EPMC6276067 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe under-five mortality rate (the probability of dying between birth and age 5 y, also denoted in the literature as U5MR and (5)q(0)) is a key indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. One important distinction is what amount of the under-five mortality occurs below age 1 y ((1)q(0)) versus at age 1 y and above ((4)q(1)). However, in many country settings, this distinction is often difficult to establish because of various types of data errors. As a result, it is common practice to resort to model age patterns to estimate (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) on the basis of an observed value of (5)q(0). The most commonly used model age patterns for this purpose are the Coale and Demeny and the United Nations systems. Since the development of these models, many additional sources of data for under-five mortality have become available, making possible a general evaluation of age patterns of infant and child mortality. In this paper, we do a systematic comparison of empirical values of (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) against model age patterns, and discuss whether observed deviations are due to data errors, or whether they reflect true epidemiological patterns not addressed in existing model life tables.Methods and findingsWe used vital registration data from the Human Mortality Database, sample survey data from the World Fertility Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys programs, and data from Demographic Surveillance Systems. For each of these data sources, we compared empirical combinations of (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) against combinations provided by Coale and Demeny and United Nations model age patterns. We found that, on the whole, empirical values fall relatively well within the range provided by these models, but we also found important exceptions. Sub-Saharan African countries have a tendency to exhibit high values of (4)q(1) relative to (1)q(0), a pattern that appears to arise for the most part from true epidemiological causes. While this pattern is well known in the case of western Africa, we observed that it is more widespread than commonly thought. We also found that the emergence of HIV/AIDS, while perhaps contributing to high relative values of (4)q(1), does not appear to have substantially modified preexisting patterns. We also identified a small number of countries scattered in different parts of the world that exhibit unusually low values of (4)q(1) relative to (1)q(0), a pattern that is not likely to arise merely from data errors. Finally, we illustrate that it is relatively common for populations to experience changes in age patterns of infant and child mortality as they experience a decline in mortality.ConclusionsExisting models do not appear to cover the entire range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution for estimating (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) on the basis of (5)q(0). Moreover, this model-based estimation procedure assumes that the input value of (5)q(0) is correct, which may not always be warranted, especially in the case of survey data. A systematic evaluation of data errors in sample surveys and their impact on age patterns of (1)q(0) and (4)q(1) is urgently needed, along with the development of model age patterns of under-five mortality that would cover a wider range of epidemiological situations and trajectories. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
| S-EPMC3429403 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSierra Leone's child and maternal mortality rates are among the highest in the world. However, little is known about the causes of premature mortality in the country. To rectify this, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone launched the Sierra Leone Sample Registration System (SL-SRS) of births and deaths. Here, we report cause-specific mortality from the first SL-SRS round, representing deaths from 2018 to 2020.MethodsThe Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action platform established the SL-SRS, which involved conducting electronic verbal autopsies in 678 randomly selected villages and urban blocks throughout the country. 61 surveyors, in teams of four or five, enrolled people and ascertained deaths of individuals younger than 70 years in 2019-20, capturing verbal autopsies on deaths from 2018 to 2020. Centrally, two trained physicians independently assigned causes of death according to the International Classification of Diseases (tenth edition). SL-SRS death proportions were applied to 5-year mortality averages from the UN World Population Prospects (2019) to derive cause-specific death totals and risks of death nationally and in four Sierra Leone regions, with comparisons made with the Western region where Freetown, the capital, is located. We compared SL-SRS results with the cause-specific mortality estimates for Sierra Leone in the 2019 WHO Global Health Estimates.FindingsBetween Sept 1, 2019, and Dec 15, 2020, we enrolled 343 000 people and ascertained 8374 deaths of individuals younger than 70 years. Malaria was the leading cause of death in children and adults, nationally and in each region, representing 22% of deaths under age 70 years in 2020. Other infectious diseases accounted for an additional 16% of deaths. Overall maternal mortality ratio was 510 deaths per 100 000 livebirths (95% CI 483-538), and neonatal mortality rate was 31·1 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 30·4-31·8), both among the highest rates in the world. Haemorrhage was the major cause of maternal mortality and birth asphyxia or trauma was the major cause of neonatal mortality. Excess deaths were not detected in the months of 2020 corresponding to the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Half of the deaths occurred in rural areas and at home. If the Northern, Eastern, and Southern regions of Sierra Leone had the lower death rates observed in the Western region, about 20 000 deaths (just over a quarter of national total deaths in people younger than 70 years) would have been avoided. WHO model-based data vastly underestimated malaria deaths and some specific causes of injury deaths, and substantially overestimated maternal mortality.InterpretationOver 60% of individuals in Sierra Leone die prematurely, before age 70 years, most from preventable or treatable causes. Nationally representative mortality surveys such as the SL-SRS are of high value in providing reliable cause-of-death information to set public health priorities and target interventions in low-income countries.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Queen Elizabeth Scholarship Program.
| S-EPMC8672062 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We have carried out a systematic analysis of the contribution of a set of selected features that include three new features to the accuracy of operon prediction. Our analyses have led to a number of new insights about operon prediction, including that (i) different features have different levels of discerning power when used on adjacent gene pairs with different ranges of intergenic distance, (ii) certain features are universally useful for operon prediction while others are more genome-specific and (iii) the prediction reliability of operons is dependent on intergenic distances. Based on these new insights, our newly developed operon-prediction program achieves more accurate operon prediction than the previous ones, and it uses features that are most readily available from genomic sequences. Our prediction results indicate that our (non-linear) decision tree-based classifier can predict operons in a prokaryotic genome very accurately when a substantial number of operons in the genome are already known. For example, the prediction accuracy of our program can reach 90.2 and 93.7% on Bacillus subtilis and Escherichia coli genomes, respectively. When no such information is available, our (linear) logistic function-based classifier can reach the prediction accuracy at 84.6 and 83.3% for E.coli and B.subtilis, respectively.
| S-EPMC1802555 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We present a method for identifying features (time periods of interest) in data sets consisting of time-indexed model output. The method is used as a diagnostic to quickly focus the attention on a subset of the data before further analysis methods are applied. Mathematically, the infinity norm errors of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) reconstructions are calculated for each time output. The result is an EOF reconstruction error map which clearly identifies features as changes in the error structure over time. The ubiquity of EOF-type methods in a wide range of disciplines reduces barriers to comprehension and implementation of the method. We apply the error map method to three different Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) data sets as examples: the development of a spontaneous instability in a large amplitude internal solitary wave, an internal wave interacting with a density profile change, and the collision of two waves of different vertical mode. In all cases the EOF error map method identifies relevant features which are worthy of further study.
| S-EPMC6892550 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceCauses of death in children with birth defects are poorly understood.ObjectiveTo determine mortality rates by cause of death in children with and without birth defects.Design, setting, and participantsThis longitudinal cohort study included a population-based sample of 1 037 688 children and was conducted in all hospitals in Quebec, Canada, with 7 700 596 person-years of follow-up between birth and age 14 years (April 1, 2006, to March 31, 2020).ExposuresPresence or absence of a birth defect.Main outcomes and measuresOutcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were computed for the association between birth defects and mortality with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for patient characteristics.ResultsAmong the 1 037 688 children in the cohort, 95 566 had birth defects (56.5% boys). There were 532 542 boys in the cohort (51.3%), and mean (SD) age at the end of follow-up was 7.42 (3.72) years. There were 918 deaths among children with defects, and the mean (SD) age was 0.93 (2.07) years at death; there were 1082 deaths among the 942 122 children without defects, and the mean (SD) age at death was 0.50 (1.51) years. Mortality rates were higher for children with birth defects compared with no defect (1.3 vs 0.2 deaths per 1000 person-years, respectively). Girls (HR, 5.66; 95% CI, 4.96-6.47) and boys (HR, 4.69; 95% CI, 4.15-5.29) with birth defects had an elevated risk of death before 14 years compared with unaffected children. Birth defects were associated with mortality from circulatory (HR, 26.59; 95% CI, 17.73-39.87), respiratory (HR, 23.03; 95% CI, 15.09-35.14), and digestive causes (HR, 31.77; 95% CI, 11.87-85.04), but anomalies were rarely listed as the cause of death. Compared with children with no defect, those with birth defects were at greatest risk of death between 28 and 364 days of life.Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study of 1 037 688 children suggests that birth defects were strongly associated with mortality owing to circulatory, respiratory, and digestive causes. This finding suggests that the contribution of birth defects may be underestimated in mortality statistics.
| S-EPMC9002336 | biostudies-literature