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External validation and comparison of multiple prognostic scores in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

ABSTRACT: Clinical decisions in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) are supported by the use of prognostic scores for outcome prediction. Scores vary in their features and in the composition of development cohorts. We sought to externally validate and compare the performance of 8 commonly applied scoring systems on a cohort of allo-HSCT recipients. Among 528 patients studied, acute myeloid leukemia was the leading transplant indication (44%) and 46% of patients had a matched sibling donor. Most models successfully grouped patients into higher and lower risk strata, supporting their use for risk classification. However, discrimination varied (2-year overall survival area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]: revised Pretransplantation Assessment of Mortality [rPAM], 0.64; PAM, 0.63; revised Disease Risk Index [rDRI], 0.62; Endothelial Activation and Stress Index [EASIx], 0.60; combined European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation [EBMT]/Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-specific Comorbidity Index [HCT-CI], 0.58; EBMT, 0.58; Comorbidity-Age, 0.58; HCT-CI, 0.55); AUC ranges from 0.5 (random) to 1.0 (perfect prediction). rPAM and PAM, which had the greatest predictive capacity across all outcomes, are comprehensive models including patient, disease, and transplantation information. Interestingly, EASIx, a biomarker-driven model, had comparable performance for nonrelapse mortality (NRM; 2-year AUC, 0.65) but no predictive value for relapse (2-year AUC, 0.53). Overall, allo-HSCT prognostic systems may be useful for risk stratification, but individual prediction remains a challenge, as reflected by the scores' limited discriminative capacity.

SUBMITTER: Shouval R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6595255 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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External validation and comparison of multiple prognostic scores in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Shouval Roni R Fein Joshua A JA Shouval Aniela A Danylesko Ivetta I Shem-Tov Noga N Zlotnik Maya M Yerushalmi Ronit R Shimoni Avichai A Nagler Arnon A

Blood advances 20190601 12

Clinical decisions in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) are supported by the use of prognostic scores for outcome prediction. Scores vary in their features and in the composition of development cohorts. We sought to externally validate and compare the performance of 8 commonly applied scoring systems on a cohort of allo-HSCT recipients. Among 528 patients studied, acute myeloid leukemia was the leading transplant indication (44%) and 46% of patients had a matched sib ...[more]

PMID: 31221661

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Myelofibrosis is a myeloproliferative stem cell disorder curable exclusively by allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to assess disease-specific and transplant-related risk factors that influence post-transplant outcome in patients with myelofibrosis. DESIGN AND METHODS: We retrospectively assessed 76 consecutive patients with primary (n=47) or secondary (n=29) myelofibrosis who underwent bone marrow (n=6) or peripheral blood stem cell (n=70) transplantation from sibling (n=30) or unrelated (n=46) donors between January 1994 and December 2010. The median follow-up of surviving patients was 55 ± 7.5 months. RESULTS: Primary graft failure occurred in 5% and the non-relapse mortality rate at 1 year was 28%. The relapse-free survival rate was 50% with a relapse rate of 19% at 5 years. The use of pharmacological pre-treatment and the post-transplant occurrence of chronic graft-versus-host disease were significant independent unfavourable risk factors for post-transplant survival in multivariate analysis. Using the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System for risk stratification, low-risk patients had significantly better overall survival (P=0.014, hazard ratio 1.4) and relapse-free survival (P=0.02, hazard ratio 1.3) compared to the other risk groups of patients. The additional inclusion of thrombocytopenia, abnormal karyotype and transfusion need (Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System Plus) resulted in a predicted 5-year overall survival of 100%, 51%, 54% and 30% for low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2 and high-risk groups, respectively. The relapse incidence was significantly higher in the absence of chronic graft-versus-host disease (P=0.006), and pharmacological pre-treatment (n=43) was associated with reduced relapse-free survival (P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The data corroborate a strong correlation between alloreactivity and long-term post-transplant disease control and confirm an inverse relationship between disease stage, pharmacotherapy and outcome after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for myelofibrosis. The Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System was demonstrated to be useful for risk stratification of patients with myelofibrosis who are to undergo hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Based on sequence variation in the UL55 gene that encodes glycoprotein B (gB), human cytomegalovirus (CMV) can be classified into four gB genotypes. Previous studies have suggested an association between CMV gB genotype and clinical outcome in patients who underwent an allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). The goals of this study were identify patients with active infection caused by CMV in recipients of HSCT; determine the prevalence of CMV genotypes in the study group; correlate genotype with CMV disease, acute GVHD and overall survival. METHODS: The diagnosis of active CMV infection after allogeneic HSCT was detected by antigenemia (AGM) and/or nested-PCR (N-PCR). Positive samples from patients with active CMV infection were submitted to genotyping using N-PCR to amplify a region of UL55, followed by restriction analysis based on HinfI and RsaI digestion. Real-time PCR (qPCR) was used to determine the viral load during active CMV infection and antiviral treatment. RESULTS: Sixty-three allogeneic HSCT recipients were prospectively evaluated; 49/63 (78%) patients were infected with CMV genotypes - gB1 19/49 (39%), gB2 17/49 (35%), gB3 3/49 (6%), gB4 7/49 (14%) - and 3 (6%) had mixed CMV genotypes (gB1 + gB3, gB1 + gB4 and gB2 + gB4). Characterized by gastrointestinal disease, CMV disease occurred in 3/49 (6.1%) patients, who had CMV gB3 genotype. These gB3 genotype patients presented an increasing AGM number, mean 125 (± 250) (P = 0.70), and qPCR copies/ml, mean 37938 (SD ± 50542) (P = 0.03), during antiviral treatment, when compared with other CMV genotypes. According to CMV genotypes, stratified overall survival was 55% for gB1, 43% for gB2; 0% for gB3 and 57% for gB4 (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: One of the restrictions of the presented study was the low number of CMV gB sub-cohorts). However, we demonstrated that the frequency of active CMV infection in this HSCT population was high, and the most prevalent genotype in these patients with active CMV infection was gB1 and gB2 genotype (74%). In Brazil, HSCT recipients seem to carry mainly gB1 and gB2 CMV genotype.

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External validation and comparison of multiple prognostic scores in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Publications

External validation and comparison of multiple prognostic scores in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

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