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Development of a predictive risk model for school readiness at age 3 years using the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The aim of this study is to develop a predictive risk model (PRM) for school readiness measured at age 3 years using perinatal and early infancy data. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS:This paper describes the development of a PRM. Predictors were identified from the UK Millennium Cohort Study wave 1 data, collected when participants were 9 months old. The outcome was school readiness at age 3 years, measured by the Bracken School Readiness Assessment. Stepwise selection and dominance analysis were used to specify two models. The models were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). RESULTS:Data were available for 9487 complete cases. At age 3, 11.7% (95% CI 11.0% to 12.3%) of children were not school ready. The variables identified were: parents' Socio-Economic Classification, child's ethnicity, maternal education, income band, sex, household number of children, mother's age, low birth weight, mother's mental health, infant developmental milestones, breastfeeding, parents' employment, housing type. A parsimonious model included the first six listed variables (model 2). The AUROC for model 1 was 0.80 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.81) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.79) for model 2. Model 1 resulted in a small improvement in discrimination (IDI=1.3%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Perinatal and infant risk factors predicted school readiness at age three with good discrimination. Social determinants were strong predictors of school readiness. This study demonstrates that school readiness can be predicted by six attributes collected around the time of birth.

SUBMITTER: Camacho C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6596936 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a predictive risk model for school readiness at age 3 years using the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

Camacho Christine C Straatmann Viviane S VS Day Jennie C JC Taylor-Robinson David D

BMJ open 20190617 6

<h4>Objectives</h4>The aim of this study is to develop a predictive risk model (PRM) for school readiness measured at age 3 years using perinatal and early infancy data.<h4>Design and participants</h4>This paper describes the development of a PRM. Predictors were identified from the UK Millennium Cohort Study wave 1 data, collected when participants were 9 months old. The outcome was school readiness at age 3 years, measured by the Bracken School Readiness Assessment. Stepwise selection and domi ...[more]

PMID: 31213442

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Project description:BackgroundAmblyopia is a neurodevelopmental condition causing reduced vision, for which programmes of whole population child vision screening exist throughout the world. There is an ongoing debate about the value of screening due to the lack of evidence about meaningful functional impacts of amblyopia. Our objective was to determine whether amblyopia is associated with school readiness and early cognitive performance.Methods and findingsData from the prospective Millennium Cohort Study of children born in the United Kingdom in 2000-01 and followed-up to age 7 years (n = 13,967). Using parental self-report on eye conditions and treatment coded by clinical reviewers, participants were grouped into no eye conditions, strabismus alone, refractive amblyopia, or strabismic/mixed (refractive plus strabismic) amblyopia. The outcomes were poor school readiness using Bracken School Readiness Assessment <25th percentile (age 3); and cognitive tests and their age-related trajectories using British Ability Scale II Naming Vocabulary (ages 3/5) and Pattern Construction (ages 5/7). Multivariable analyses showed that compared to children without any eye conditions, only those with strabismic/mixed amblyopia had an increased risk of poor school readiness (OR = 2.04, 95%CI 1.09-3.82). Small differences in mean scores for NV and PC of children with amblyopia (all types) compared to those without any eye condition were not clinically significant (>10 points) irrespective of whether treatment had already started. The age-related cognitive trajectories of children with amblyopia did not differ from those without any eye conditions for either NV (p = 0.62) or PC (p = 0.51). These associations are at population rather than individual level, so it might be that some individuals with amblyopia did experience significant adverse outcomes that are not captured by summary statistics.ConclusionsAmblyopia is not significantly associated with adverse cognitive performance and trajectories in early schooling and there is no evidence that this is due to a mediating effect of treatment. Although amblyopia combined with strabismus is associated with poor school readiness, this is not translated into poor cognitive performance. These novel findings may explain the lack of association reported between amblyopia and educational outcomes in adult life and suggest that the impact of amblyopia on education is not of itself a justification for whole population child vision screening aimed at detecting this disorder.

Project description:BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:Maternal psychological distress is associated with a range of adverse child outcomes. We sought to determine whether children's exposure to medium or severe distress at 5 years was associated with increased risks of overweight and obesity when they were aged 11 years. We also investigated whether any association was attenuated after accounting for potential confounding and mediating factors. SUBJECTS/METHODS:We analysed data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study, a nationally representative sample with data collected throughout childhood, imputing missing covariates (analytic sample: n?=?9206). Multinomial regression was used to examine whether maternal psychological distress (Kessler-6 scale, using medium and severe score thresholds) at 5 years of age predicted children's objectively measured overweight and obesity at 11 years, adjusting for sex and ethnicity. We then carried out a series of models incorporating potential confounders (early life and socio-demographic, recorded at 9 months) and mediators (physical activity and dietary factors, at 7 years) in turn, and then simultaneously. RESULTS:A third of mothers reported distress when their child was aged 5 years (29% medium; 4% severe distress), and over a quarter of children were overweight at 11 years (22% overweight; 6% obese). Risks of obesity at 11 years increased with severity of maternal distress at 5 years (medium distress: relative risk ratio (RRR)?=?1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17-1.75; severe RRR?=?2.27, CI 1.42-3.63). Adjusting for each set of explanatory factors in turn (particularly early years and socio-demographic confounding factors) reduced but did not eliminate these elevated risks. However, risks were attenuated in the fully adjusted model (medium: RRR?=?1.14, CI 0.92-1.41; severe: RRR?=?1.26, CI 0.75-2.11). CONCLUSIONS:We demonstrated that maternal psychological distress, particularly if severe, at 5 years was associated with risk of obesity (but not overweight) at 11 years. Accounting for potential explanatory factors attenuated this association to non-significance, suggesting a range of mechanisms may be implicated. Future research should seek to disentangle the potentially complex pathways linking explanatory factors, maternal distress and child obesity.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To examine, in a population-based cohort of 3-year-old children, the association between self-regulation and exposure to the household routines of regular bedtime, regular mealtime and limits on watching television/video, and to determine whether self-regulation and these routines predict the risk of obesity at age 11. METHODS:Analyses included 10?955 children in the nationally representative UK Millennium Cohort Study. When children were age 3, parents reported whether children had a regular bedtime and mealtime, and the amount of television/video watched. Emotional and cognitive self-regulation at age 3 were assessed by parent-report with the Child Social Behaviour Questionnaire. Children's height and weight were measured at age 11 and obesity was defined using the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) criteria. RESULTS:At age 3, 41% of children always had a regular bedtime, 47% always had a regular mealtime and 23% were limited to ?1?h television/video daily. At age 11, 6.2% of children were obese. All three household routines were significantly associated with better emotional self-regulation, but not better cognitive self-regulation. In a multi-variable logistic regression model, including emotional and cognitive self-regulation, all routines and controlling for sociodemographic covariates, a 1-unit difference in emotional self-regulation at age 3 was associated with an OR (95% CI) for obesity of 1.38 (1.11, 1.71) at age 11, and inconsistent bedtimes with an OR (95% CI) for obesity of 1.87 (1.39, 2.51) at age 11. There was no evidence that emotional self-regulation mediated the relationship between regular bedtimes and later obesity. Cognitive self-regulation was not associated with later obesity. CONCLUSIONS:Three-year-old children who had regular bedtimes, mealtimes and limits on their television/video time had better emotional self-regulation. Lack of a regular bedtime and poorer emotional self-regulation at age 3 were independent predictors of obesity at age 11.

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Development of a predictive risk model for school readiness at age 3 years using the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

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Development of a predictive risk model for school readiness at age 3 years using the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

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