Dataset Information

Future projection of cancer patients with cardiovascular disease in Japan by the year 2039: a pilot study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The number of cancer patients in Japan is estimated to rise to 3.5 million by 2025. The disease burden may be further complicated by comorbidities caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). Predicting the number of cancer patients with CVD can help anticipate future resource needs.

Methods

We used statistics derived from the Niigata Cancer Center CVD Study (2015) as well as population estimates from the National Cancer Center's Cancer Registry and Statistics survey of 2017 for convenience. We simply multiplied the projected number of cancer patients through the year 2039 by the CVD prevalence in 2015, with patients classified by sex, age, and cancer type to estimate the number of cancer patients with CVD.

Results

The total number of Japanese cancer patients with CVD was 253,000 in 2015 and is predicted to increase rapidly by 30,000 in 2020 and peak at 313,000 in 2030-2034. Men will dominate the CVD population at 2.5-fold the number of women. The growth rate of the population with both cancer and CVD will be greater than that of the cancer-only population (1.23 vs 1.18, P?ConclusionFuture cancer patients will be older and more likely to have CVD. Although men will continue to dominate this population, the increase in the number of women will be pronounced. Cancer care providers should be trained to recognize CVD and provide any necessary interventions concurrently with cancer therapy.

SUBMITTER: Okura Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6597732 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Future projection of cancer patients with cardiovascular disease in Japan by the year 2039: a pilot study.

Okura Yuji Y Takayama Tsugumi T Ozaki Kazuyuki K Tanaka Hiroshi H Kikuchi Akira A Saito Toshihiro T Tanigawa Toshiki T Takii Yasumasa Y Seki Hiroshi H Takenouchi Tatsuya T Chou Takaaki T Sato Nobuaki N Tanabe Naohito N Minamino Tohru T

International journal of clinical oncology 20190322 8

<h4>Background</h4>The number of cancer patients in Japan is estimated to rise to 3.5 million by 2025. The disease burden may be further complicated by comorbidities caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). Predicting the number of cancer patients with CVD can help anticipate future resource needs.<h4>Methods</h4>We used statistics derived from the Niigata Cancer Center CVD Study (2015) as well as population estimates from the National Cancer Center's Cancer Registry and Statistics survey of 2017 ...[more]

PMID: 30903421

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Project description:BackgroundThe extent to which co-occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer is due to shared risk factors or other mechanisms is unknown.ObjectivesWe investigated the association of standard CVD risk factors, CVD biomarkers, preexisting CVD, and ideal CV health metrics with the development of future cancer.MethodsWe prospectively followed Framingham Heart Study and PREVEND participants free of cancer at baseline, and ascertained histology-proven cancer. We studied the association of baseline CV risk factors, 10-year atherosclerotic CVD risk score, established CVD biomarkers, prevalent CVD, and AHA Life's Simple 7 CV health score with incident cancer using multivariable Cox models. Analyses of interim CVD events with incident cancer used time-dependent covariates.ResultsAmong 20,305 participants (mean age 50 ± 14 years, 54% women), 2,548 incident cancer cases occurred over a median follow-up of 15.0 (13.3-15.0) surveillance years. Traditional CVD risk factors including age, sex, and smoking status were independently associated with cancer (P <0.001 for all). Estimated 10-year atherosclerotic CVD risk was also associated with future cancer (HR 1.16 per 5% increase in risk, 95% CI 1.14-1.17, P<0.001). We found that natriuretic peptides (NP) (tertile 3 vs 1: HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03-1.91, p=0.035) was associated with incident cancer, but not high sensitivity troponin (hs-cTn) (p=0.47). Prevalent CVD and the development of interim CV events were not associated with higher risk of subsequent cancer. However, ideal CV health was associated with lower future cancer risk (HR 0.95 per 1-point increase in AHA health score, 95% CI 0.92-0.99, p=0.009).ConclusionsCVD risk as captured by traditional CVD risk factors, 10-year atherosclerotic CVD risk score, and NP concentrations are associated with increased risk of future cancer. Conversely, a heart healthy lifestyle is associated with a reduced risk of future cancer. Our data suggest that the association between CVD and future cancer is attributable to shared risk factors.

Dataset Information

Future projection of cancer patients with cardiovascular disease in Japan by the year 2039: a pilot study.

Background

Methods

Results

Publications

Future projection of cancer patients with cardiovascular disease in Japan by the year 2039: a pilot study.

Similar Datasets

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