Dataset Information

Determinants of Transmission Risk During the Late Stage of the West African Ebola Epidemic.

ABSTRACT: Understanding risk factors for Ebola transmission is key for effective prediction and design of interventions. We used data on 860 cases in 129 chains of transmission from the latter half of the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in Guinea. Using negative binomial regression, we determined characteristics associated with the number of secondary cases resulting from each infected individual. We found that attending an Ebola treatment unit was associated with a 38% decrease in secondary cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38, 0.99) among individuals that did not survive. Unsafe burial was associated with a higher number of secondary cases (IRR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.10, 3.02). The average number of secondary cases was higher for the first generation of a transmission chain (mean = 1.77) compared with subsequent generations (mean = 0.70). Children were least likely to transmit (IRR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.57) compared with adults, whereas older adults were associated with higher numbers of secondary cases. Men were less likely to transmit than women (IRR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.55, 0.93). This detailed surveillance data set provided an invaluable insight into transmission routes and risks. Our analysis highlights the key role that age, receiving treatment, and safe burial played in the spread of EVD.

SUBMITTER: Robert A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6601535 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Determinants of Transmission Risk During the Late Stage of the West African Ebola Epidemic.

Robert Alexis A Edmunds W John WJ Watson Conall H CH Henao-Restrepo Ana Maria AM Gsell Pierre-Stéphane PS Williamson Elizabeth E Longini Ira M IM Sakoba Keïta K Kucharski Adam J AJ Touré Alhassane A Nadlaou Sévérine Danmadji SD Diallo Boubacar B Barry Mamamdou Saidou MS Fofana Thierno Oumar TO Camara Louceny L Kaba Ibrahima Lansana IL Sylla Lansana L Diaby Mohamed Lamine ML Soumah Ousmane O Diallo Abdourahime A Niare Amadou A Diallo Abdourahmane A Eggo Rosalind M RM

American journal of epidemiology 20190701 7

Understanding risk factors for Ebola transmission is key for effective prediction and design of interventions. We used data on 860 cases in 129 chains of transmission from the latter half of the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in Guinea. Using negative binomial regression, we determined characteristics associated with the number of secondary cases resulting from each infected individual. We found that attending an Ebola treatment unit was associated with a 38% decrease in secondary cases (incidence rat ...[more]

PMID: 30941398

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Project description:BackgroundHealthcare and other front-line workers are at particular risk of infection with Ebola virus (EBOV). Despite the large-scale deployment of international responders, few cases of Ebola virus disease have been diagnosed in this group. Since asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic infection has been described, it is plausible that infections have occurred in healthcare workers but have escaped being diagnosed. We aimed to assess the prevalence of asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic infection, and of exposure events, among returned responders to the West African Ebola epidemic 2014-2016.Methods and findingsWe used snowball sampling to identify responders who had returned to the UK or Ireland, and used an online consent and questionnaire to determine their exposure to EBOV and their experience of illness. Oral fluid collection devices were sent and returned by post, and samples were tested using an EBOV IgG capture assay that detects IgG to Ebola glycoprotein. Blood was collected from returnees with reactive samples for further testing. Unexposed UK controls were also recruited. In all, 300 individuals consented, of whom 268 (89.3%) returned an oral fluid sample (OFS). The majority had worked in Sierra Leone in clinical, laboratory, research, and other roles. Fifty-three UK controls consented and provided samples using the same method. Of the returnees, 47 (17.5%) reported that they had had a possible EBOV exposure. Based on their free-text descriptions, using a published risk assessment method, we classified 43 (16%) as having had incidents with risk of Ebola transmission, including five intermediate-risk and one high-risk exposure. Of the returnees, 57 (21%) reported a febrile or diarrhoeal illness in West Africa or within 1 mo of return, of whom 40 (70%) were not tested at the time for EBOV infection. Of the 268 OFSs, 266 were unreactive. Two returnees, who did not experience an illness in West Africa or on return, had OFSs that were reactive on the EBOV IgG capture assay, with similar results on plasma. One individual had no further positive test results; the other had a positive result on a double-antigen bridging assay but not on a competitive assay or on an indirect EBOV IgG ELISA. All 53 controls had non-reactive OFSs. While the participants were not a random sample of returnees, the number participating was high.ConclusionsThis is the first study, to our knowledge, of the prevalence of EBOV infection in international responders. More than 99% had clear negative results. Sera from two individuals had discordant results on the different assays; both were negative on the competitive assay, suggesting that prior infection was unlikely. The finding that a significant proportion experienced "near miss" exposure events, and that most of those who experienced symptoms did not get tested for EBOV at the time, suggests a need to review and standardise protocols for the management of possible exposure to EBOV, and for the management of illness, across organisations that deploy staff to outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Determinants of Transmission Risk During the Late Stage of the West African Ebola Epidemic.

Publications

Determinants of Transmission Risk During the Late Stage of the West African Ebola Epidemic.

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