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Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions.

ABSTRACT: Emission of pollutants from shipping contributes to ambient air pollution. Our aim was to estimate exposure to particulate air pollution (PM2.5) and health effects from shipping in countries around the Baltic Sea, as well as effects of the sulfur regulations for fuels enforced in 2015 by the Baltic Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA). Yearly PM2.5 emissions, from ship activity data and emission inventories in 2014 and 2016, were estimated. Concentrations and population exposure (0.1° × 0.1°) of PM2.5 were estimated from a chemical transport mode, meteorology, and population density. Excess mortality and morbidity were estimated using established exposure-response (ER) functions. Estimated mean PM2.5 per inhabitant from Baltic shipping was 0.22 µg/m3 in 2014 in ten countries, highest in Denmark (0.57 µg/m3). For the ER function with the steepest slope, the number of estimated extra premature deaths was 3413 in total, highest in Germany and lowest in Norway. It decreased by about 35% in 2016 (after SECA), a reduction of >1000 cases. In addition, 1500 non-fatal cases of ischemic heart disease and 1500 non-fatal cases of stroke in 2014 caused by Baltic shipping emissions were reduced by the same extent in 2016. In conclusion, PM2.5 emissions from Baltic shipping, and resulting health impacts decreased substantially after the SECA regulations in 2015.

SUBMITTER: Barregard L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6603906 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions.

Barregard Lars L Molnàr Peter P Jonson Jan Eiof JE Stockfelt Leo L

International journal of environmental research and public health 20190601 11

Emission of pollutants from shipping contributes to ambient air pollution. Our aim was to estimate exposure to particulate air pollution (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and health effects from shipping in countries around the Baltic Sea, as well as effects of the sulfur regulations for fuels enforced in 2015 by the Baltic Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA). Yearly PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions, from ship activity data and emission inventories in 2014 and 2016, were estimated. Concentrations and population expo ...[more]

PMID: 31159436

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Project description:BackgroundWhile the unique marine and coastal environment of the Baltic Sea provides numerous ecosystem services, its ecosystems are under pressure due to the intensification and diversification of anthropogenic uses. This present work constitutes a systematic map of the evidence of the impacts of ecosystem services and disservices on human health and well-being. The aim is to create a better understanding of the threats of unsustainable management or the benefits of sustainable management of the Baltic Sea and the impacts these may have on the health and well-being of human populations and present these findings to policy advisors. The mapping process is described, and the characteristics of the evidence base are presented.MethodsThe applied method has been previously published in a systematic map protocol. Literature searches were carried out in English considering published peer-reviewed literature from traditional scientific journals and scientific reports from the grey literature, using synthesis software. A total of 17 databases were searched. Articles were screened in stages at title and abstract stage, then full-text stage. Geographic limitations were placed on the searches in accordance with research funders call, however, watersheds that had an impact on the Baltic Sea marine and coastal regions were considered. We used the more open PEO format, where population (P) included the human populations within the marine and coastal environment of the Baltic Sea region, exposure (E) related to the Baltic Sea ecosystems services and disservices, and the outcome (O) included all aspects of human health and well-being. After full-text screening articles selected for inclusion were searched for metadata connected to bibliographic information, ecosystem services, health and well-being outcomes and policy relevance.Review findingsOut of 6456 hits only 460 studies discussed either health or well-being indicators to some extent. Of these, only 67 explicitly mentioned ecosystem services and health and well-being indicators. However, few in this subset engaged with the topic of ecosystem services or disservices and health and well-being in depth. Studies are increasingly relating the two concepts but currently it is mainly studies focussed on cultural ecosystem services that deal with the concept of health and well-being to a greater degree. Studies in the medical literature relating to impacts on health from exposure to the Baltic Sea did not relate their findings to ecosystem services. The database of 67 studies is attached as Additional file 5.ConclusionsEcosystem services play an important role in human health and well-being; however, we found few studies that explicitly examine these impacts in detail. Further research is needed to link the health and well-being outcomes from the Baltic Sea to the ecosystem services supplied and therefore to demonstrate the benefits and disservices provided by the Baltic Sea ecosystems to human populations.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13750-021-00244-w.

Project description:BackgroundGlobal health implementing organizations benefit most from health impact estimation models that isolate the individual effects of distributed products and services - a feature not typically found in intervention impact models, but which allow comparisons across interventions and intervention settings. Population Services International (PSI), a social marketing organization, has developed a set of impact models covering seven health program areas, which translate product/service distribution data into impact estimates. Each model's primary output is the number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by an intervention within a specific country and population context. This paper aims to describe the structure and inputs for two types of DALYs averted models, considering the benefits and limitations of this methodology.MethodsPSI employs two modeling approaches for estimating health impact: a macro approach for most interventions and a micro approach for HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and behavior change communication (BCC) interventions. Within each intervention country context, the macro approach determines the coverage that one product/service unit provides a population in person-years, whereas the micro approach estimates an individual's risk of infection with and without the product/service unit. The models use these estimations to generate per unit DALYs averted coefficients for each intervention. When multiplied by program output data, these coefficients predict the total number of DALYs averted by an intervention in a country.ResultsModel outputs are presented by country for two examples: Water Chlorination DALYs Averted Model, a macro model, and the HIV Condom DALYs Averted Model for heterosexual transmission, a micro model. Health impact estimates measured in DALYs averted for PSI interventions on a global level are also presented.ConclusionsThe DALYs averted models offer implementing organizations practical measurement solutions for understanding an intervention's contribution to improving health. These models calculate health impact estimates that reflect the scale and diversity of program operations and intervention settings, and that enable comparisons across health areas and countries. Challenges remain in accounting for intervention synergies, attributing impact to a single organization, and sourcing and updating model inputs. Nevertheless, these models demonstrate how DALYs averted can be viably used by the global health community as a metric for predicting intervention impact using standard program output data.

Dataset Information

Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions.

Publications

Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions.

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