Dataset Information

Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions.

ABSTRACT: Emission of pollutants from shipping contributes to ambient air pollution. Our aim was to estimate exposure to particulate air pollution (PM2.5) and health effects from shipping in countries around the Baltic Sea, as well as effects of the sulfur regulations for fuels enforced in 2015 by the Baltic Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA). Yearly PM2.5 emissions, from ship activity data and emission inventories in 2014 and 2016, were estimated. Concentrations and population exposure (0.1° × 0.1°) of PM2.5 were estimated from a chemical transport mode, meteorology, and population density. Excess mortality and morbidity were estimated using established exposure-response (ER) functions. Estimated mean PM2.5 per inhabitant from Baltic shipping was 0.22 µg/m3 in 2014 in ten countries, highest in Denmark (0.57 µg/m3). For the ER function with the steepest slope, the number of estimated extra premature deaths was 3413 in total, highest in Germany and lowest in Norway. It decreased by about 35% in 2016 (after SECA), a reduction of >1000 cases. In addition, 1500 non-fatal cases of ischemic heart disease and 1500 non-fatal cases of stroke in 2014 caused by Baltic shipping emissions were reduced by the same extent in 2016. In conclusion, PM2.5 emissions from Baltic shipping, and resulting health impacts decreased substantially after the SECA regulations in 2015.

SUBMITTER: Barregard L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6603906 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions.

Barregard Lars L Molnàr Peter P Jonson Jan Eiof JE Stockfelt Leo L

International journal of environmental research and public health 20190601 11

Emission of pollutants from shipping contributes to ambient air pollution. Our aim was to estimate exposure to particulate air pollution (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and health effects from shipping in countries around the Baltic Sea, as well as effects of the sulfur regulations for fuels enforced in 2015 by the Baltic Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA). Yearly PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions, from ship activity data and emission inventories in 2014 and 2016, were estimated. Concentrations and population expo ...[more]

PMID: 31159436

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Project description:The concept of “committed emissions” allows us to understand what proportion of the Paris-constrained and rapidly diminishing global carbon dioxide (CO2) budget is potentially taken up by existing infrastructure. Here, this concept is applied to international shipping, where long-lived assets increase the likelihood for high levels of committed emissions. To date, committed emissions studies have focussed predominantly on the power sector, or on global analyses in which shipping is a small element, with assumptions of asset lifetimes extrapolated from other transport modes. This study analyses new CO2, ship age and scrappage datasets covering the 11,000 ships included in the European Union’s new emissions monitoring scheme (EU MRV), to deliver original insights on the speed at which new and existing shipping infrastructure must be decarbonised. These results, using ship-specific assumptions on asset lifetimes, show higher committed emissions for shipping than previous estimates based on asset lifetimes similar to the road transport sector. The estimated baseline committed emissions value is equivalent to 85–212% of the carbon budget for 1.5 °C that is available for these EU MRV ships, with the central case exceeding the available carbon budget. The sector does, however, have significant potential to reduce this committed emissions figure without premature scrappage through a combination of slow speeds, operational and technical efficiency measures, and the timely retrofitting of ships to use zero-carbon fuels. Here, it is shown that if mitigation measures are applied comprehensively through strong and rapid policy implementation in the 2020s, and if zero-carbon ships are deployed rapidly from 2030, it is still possible for the ships in the EU MRV system to stay within 1.5 °C carbon budgets. Alongside this, as there are wide variations between and within ship types, this new analysis sheds light on opportunities for decision-makers to tailor policy interventions to deliver more effective CO2 mitigation. Delays to appropriately stringent policy implementation would mean additional measures, such as premature scrappage or curbing the growth in shipping tonne-km, become necessary to meet the Paris climate goals.

Project description:BackgroundWhile the unique marine and coastal environment of the Baltic Sea provides numerous ecosystem services, its ecosystems are under pressure due to the intensification and diversification of anthropogenic uses. This present work constitutes a systematic map of the evidence of the impacts of ecosystem services and disservices on human health and well-being. The aim is to create a better understanding of the threats of unsustainable management or the benefits of sustainable management of the Baltic Sea and the impacts these may have on the health and well-being of human populations and present these findings to policy advisors. The mapping process is described, and the characteristics of the evidence base are presented.MethodsThe applied method has been previously published in a systematic map protocol. Literature searches were carried out in English considering published peer-reviewed literature from traditional scientific journals and scientific reports from the grey literature, using synthesis software. A total of 17 databases were searched. Articles were screened in stages at title and abstract stage, then full-text stage. Geographic limitations were placed on the searches in accordance with research funders call, however, watersheds that had an impact on the Baltic Sea marine and coastal regions were considered. We used the more open PEO format, where population (P) included the human populations within the marine and coastal environment of the Baltic Sea region, exposure (E) related to the Baltic Sea ecosystems services and disservices, and the outcome (O) included all aspects of human health and well-being. After full-text screening articles selected for inclusion were searched for metadata connected to bibliographic information, ecosystem services, health and well-being outcomes and policy relevance.Review findingsOut of 6456 hits only 460 studies discussed either health or well-being indicators to some extent. Of these, only 67 explicitly mentioned ecosystem services and health and well-being indicators. However, few in this subset engaged with the topic of ecosystem services or disservices and health and well-being in depth. Studies are increasingly relating the two concepts but currently it is mainly studies focussed on cultural ecosystem services that deal with the concept of health and well-being to a greater degree. Studies in the medical literature relating to impacts on health from exposure to the Baltic Sea did not relate their findings to ecosystem services. The database of 67 studies is attached as Additional file 5.ConclusionsEcosystem services play an important role in human health and well-being; however, we found few studies that explicitly examine these impacts in detail. Further research is needed to link the health and well-being outcomes from the Baltic Sea to the ecosystem services supplied and therefore to demonstrate the benefits and disservices provided by the Baltic Sea ecosystems to human populations.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13750-021-00244-w.

Dataset Information

Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions.

Publications

Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions.

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