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Assessing Catastrophes-Dragon-Kings, Black, and Gray Swans-for Science-Policy.

ABSTRACT: The threat of catastrophic incidents-from nonroutine events to extreme ones, such as Dragon-Kings (DK), Black Swans (BS), and Gray Swans-induces precautionary initiatives that, before the fact, may encounter public resistance or after the fact recriminations. This study develops three aspects of these events: (1) generating mechanisms, (2) the statistical distributions of near and far-term consequences, and (3) the aggregation of expert opinions about assumptions, mechanisms, and consequences that informs science-policy. This study shows how causal analysis should account for the: (1) nonlinear catastrophic behaviors that generate predictions, (2) common and power-law distributions of the consequences, (3) self-organizing criticality and self-similarity, and (4) feedbacks and couplings between mechanisms that produce snaps, crackles, and pops as precursor, warning signals. The distribution of the consequences associated with catastrophic incidents has longer and fatter right tails than those expected from failure analysis based on known nonroutine events. DK are extreme events that deviate from these fat tail distributions, have a much higher frequency than expected, and can be predicted unlike BS. This shows how to combine divergent expert individual beliefs over assumptions, causation, and results, and a paradox that affects agreements obtained by majority rule.

SUBMITTER: Ricci PF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6607139 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessing Catastrophes-Dragon-Kings, Black, and Gray Swans-for Science-Policy.

Ricci Paolo F PF Sheng Hua-Xia HX

Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ) 20170728 6

The threat of catastrophic incidents-from nonroutine events to extreme ones, such as Dragon-Kings (DK), Black Swans (BS), and Gray Swans-induces precautionary initiatives that, before the fact, may encounter public resistance or after the fact recriminations. This study develops three aspects of these events: (1) generating mechanisms, (2) the statistical distributions of near and far-term consequences, and (3) the aggregation of expert opinions about assumptions, mechanisms, and consequences th ...[more]

PMID: 31565283

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Project description:The Lisbon Strategy was adopted by the Heads of State and Government of the European Union (EU) in 2000. By moving science into a central position for the development of a European knowledge-based economy and society, its adoption at political level seems to have been a powerful catalyst for the increased involvement of scientists in science policy in the EU. Recognising the need for scientists to act collectively in order to contribute to shape the future of science policy in Europe, a pioneering group of European science organisations leaders and representatives, as well as other scientists, initiated a European, interdisciplinary, inclusive movement leading to the creation of the European Research Council (ERC) to support basic research of the highest quality. Having scientists' campaign for the funding of bottom-up research by the EU Framework Programmes exclusively on scientific grounds, and for an ERC, was a unique event in the recent history of European science policy. For the first time, the scientific community acted collectively and across disciplinary or national boundaries as a political actor for the sake of a better science policy for Europe. As is often the case when first-hand experience is gained through the creation of a new organization, novel forms of collaboration arise. The European biomedical community has recently proposed the creation of a strategic action plan for health research (the European Council of Health Research; EuCHR), provisionally translated at present into a Scientific Panel for Health (SPH) research in Horizon 2020, the EU's research-funding programme for the period 2014-2020. The creation of such Scientific Panel should be viewed as an important contribution by the biomedical community as a major political agreement has been reached on the need for a comprehensive and long-term scientific strategy to accelerate research and facilitate innovation at EU level. It is our belief that describing and analyzing the process leading to the creation of the ERC and SPH (2002-2014) should be widely shared with the research community in general, as this may contribute to the understanding of the evolving relations between scientists and science-policy making.

Dataset Information

Assessing Catastrophes-Dragon-Kings, Black, and Gray Swans-for Science-Policy.

Publications

Assessing Catastrophes-Dragon-Kings, Black, and Gray Swans-for Science-Policy.

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