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Drug resistance from preferred antiretroviral regimens for HIV infection in South Africa: A modeling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Tenofovir-containing regimens comprise the preferred first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in many countries including South Africa, where utilization of second-line regimens is limited. Considerable HIV drug resistance has occurred among persons failing tenofovir-containing first-line ART. We evaluated drug resistance at the population level using mathematical modeling. SETTING:Heterosexual HIV epidemic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS:We constructed a stochastic individual-based model and simulated scenarios of ART implementation, either CD4-based (threshold < 500 cells/mL) or Fast-track (81% coverage by 2020), with consideration of major drug-associated mutations (M184V, K65R and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)). Using base case and uncertainty analyses, we assessed (majority) drug resistance levels. RESULTS:By 2030, the median total resistance (proportion of HIV-infected persons with drug resistance) is predicted to reach 31.4% (interquartile range (IQR): 16.5%-50.2%) with CD4-based ART, decreasing to 14.5% (IQR: 7.7%-25.8%) with Fast-track implementation. In both scenarios, we find comparably high prevalence (~80%) of acquired NNRTI-associated, M184V and K65R mutations. Over 48% of individuals with acquired resistance harbor dual, 44% triple and 7% just single drug mutations. Drug-resistant HIV is predicted to comprise 40% (IQR: 27%-50%) of incident infections, while 70% of prevalent transmitted resistance is NNRTI-associated. At 2018, the projected total resistance is 15% (IQR: 7.5%-25%), with 18% (IQR: 13%-24%) of incident infections from transmitted drug-resistant HIV. CONCLUSIONS:WHO-recommended preferred first-line ART could lead to substantial drug resistance. Effective surveillance of HIV drug resistance and utilization of second-line as well as alternative first-line regimens is crucial.

SUBMITTER: Abbas UL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6609148 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Drug resistance from preferred antiretroviral regimens for HIV infection in South Africa: A modeling study.

Abbas Ume L UL Glaubius Robert L RL Ding Yajun Y Hood Gregory G

PloS one 20190703 7

<h4>Background</h4>Tenofovir-containing regimens comprise the preferred first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in many countries including South Africa, where utilization of second-line regimens is limited. Considerable HIV drug resistance has occurred among persons failing tenofovir-containing first-line ART. We evaluated drug resistance at the population level using mathematical modeling.<h4>Setting</h4>Heterosexual HIV epidemic in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>We constructed a ...[more]

PMID: 31269034

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Project description:BackgroundRising resistance of HIV-1 to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) threatens the success of the global scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The switch to WHO-recommended dolutegravir (DTG)-based regimens could reduce this threat due to DTG's high genetic barrier to resistance. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of the scale-up of DTG-based ART on NNRTI pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) in South Africa, 2020 to 2040.Methods and findingsWe adapted the Modeling Antiretroviral drug Resistance In South Africa (MARISA) model, an epidemiological model of the transmission of NNRTI resistance in South Africa. We modeled the introduction of DTG in 2020 under 2 scenarios: DTG as first-line regimen for ART initiators, or DTG for all patients, including patients on suppressive NNRTI-based ART. Given the safety concerns related to DTG during pregnancy, we assessed the impact of prescribing DTG to all men and in addition to (1) women beyond reproductive age; (2) women beyond reproductive age or using contraception; and (3) all women. The model projections show that, compared to the continuation of NNRTI-based ART, introducing DTG would lead to a reduction in NNRTI PDR in all scenarios if ART initiators are started on a DTG-based regimen, and those on NNRTI-based regimens are rapidly switched to DTG. NNRTI PDR would continue to increase if DTG-based ART was restricted to men. When given to all men and women, DTG-based ART could reduce the level of NNRTI PDR from 52.4% (without DTG) to 10.4% (with universal DTG) in 2040. If only men and women beyond reproductive age or on contraception are started on or switched to DTG-based ART, NNRTI PDR would reach 25.9% in 2040. Limitations include substantial uncertainty due to the long-term predictions and the current scarcity of knowledge about DTG efficacy in South Africa.ConclusionsOur model shows the potential benefit of scaling up DTG-based regimens for halting the rise of NNRTI resistance. Starting or switching all men and women to DTG would lead to a sustained decline in resistance levels, whereas using DTG-based ART in all men, or in men and women beyond childbearing age, would only slow down the increase in levels of NNRTI PDR.

Project description:BackgroundThe safety and efficacy of adding antiretroviral drugs to standard zidovudine prophylaxis in infants of mothers with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection who did not receive antenatal antiretroviral therapy (ART) because of late identification are unclear. We evaluated three ART regimens in such infants.MethodsWithin 48 hours after their birth, we randomly assigned formula-fed infants born to women with a peripartum diagnosis of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) infection to one of three regimens: zidovudine for 6 weeks (zidovudine-alone group), zidovudine for 6 weeks plus three doses of nevirapine during the first 8 days of life (two-drug group), or zidovudine for 6 weeks plus nelfinavir and lamivudine for 2 weeks (three-drug group). The primary outcome was HIV-1 infection at 3 months in infants uninfected at birth.ResultsA total of 1684 infants were enrolled in the Americas and South Africa (566 in the zidovudine-alone group, 562 in the two-drug group, and 556 in the three-drug group). The overall rate of in utero transmission of HIV-1 on the basis of Kaplan-Meier estimates was 5.7% (93 infants), with no significant differences among the groups. Intrapartum transmission occurred in 24 infants in the zidovudine-alone group (4.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2 to 7.1), as compared with 11 infants in the two-drug group (2.2%; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.9; P=0.046) and 12 in the three-drug group (2.4%; 95% CI, 1.4 to 4.3; P=0.046). The overall transmission rate was 8.5% (140 infants), with an increased rate in the zidovudine-alone group (P=0.03 for the comparisons with the two- and three-drug groups). On multivariate analysis, zidovudine monotherapy, a higher maternal viral load, and maternal use of illegal substances were significantly associated with transmission. The rate of neutropenia was significantly increased in the three-drug group (P<0.001 for both comparisons with the other groups).ConclusionsIn neonates whose mothers did not receive ART during pregnancy, prophylaxis with a two- or three-drug ART regimen is superior to zidovudine alone for the prevention of intrapartum HIV transmission; the two-drug regimen has less toxicity than the three-drug regimen. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development [NICHD] and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00099359.).

Project description:The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa substantially reduced AIDS-related deaths and new HIV infections. However, its success is threatened by the emergence of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). The MARISA (Modelling Antiretroviral drug Resistance In South Africa) model presented here aims at investigating the time trends and factors driving NNRTI resistance in South Africa. MARISA is a compartmental model that includes the key aspects of the local HIV epidemic: continuum of care, disease progression, and gender. The dynamics of NNRTI resistance emergence and transmission are then added to this framework. Model parameters are informed using data from HIV cohorts participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) and literature estimates, or fitted to UNAIDS estimates. Using this novel approach of triangulating clinical and resistance data from various sources, MARISA reproduces the time trends of HIV in South Africa in 2005-2016, with a decrease in new infections, undiagnosed individuals, and AIDS-related deaths. MARISA captures the dynamics of the spread of NNRTI resistance: high levels of acquired drug resistance (ADR, in 83% of first-line treatment failures in 2016), and increasing transmitted drug resistance (TDR, in 8.1% of ART initiators in 2016). Simulation of counter-factual scenarios reflecting alternative public health policies shows that increasing treatment coverage would have resulted in fewer new infections and deaths, at the cost of higher TDR (11.6% in 2016 for doubling the treatment rate). Conversely, improving switching to second-line treatment would have led to lower TDR (6.5% in 2016 for doubling the switching rate) and fewer new infections and deaths. Implementing drug resistance testing would have had little impact. The rapid ART scale-up and inadequate switching to second-line treatment were the key drivers of the spread of NNRTI resistance in South Africa. However, even though some interventions could have substantially reduced the level of NNRTI resistance, no policy including NNRTI-based first line regimens could have prevented this spread. Thus, by combining epidemiological data on HIV in South Africa with biological data on resistance evolution, our modelling approach identified key factors driving NNRTI resistance, highlighting the need of alternative first-line regimens.

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Drug resistance from preferred antiretroviral regimens for HIV infection in South Africa: A modeling study.

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Drug resistance from preferred antiretroviral regimens for HIV infection in South Africa: A modeling study.

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