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Predicting probability of perirectal colonization with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) and other carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs) at hospital unit admission.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Targeted screening for carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs), including carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) and carbapenemase-producing organisms (CPOs), remains limited; recent data suggest that existing policies miss many carriers. OBJECTIVE:Our objective was to measure the prevalence of CRO and CPO perirectal colonization at hospital unit admission and to use machine learning methods to predict probability of CRO and/or CPO carriage. METHODS:We performed an observational cohort study of all patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit (MICU) or solid organ transplant (SOT) unit at The Johns Hopkins Hospital between July 1, 2016 and July 1, 2017. Admission perirectal swabs were screened for CROs and CPOs. More than 125 variables capturing preadmission clinical and demographic characteristics were collected from the electronic medical record (EMR) system. We developed models to predict colonization probabilities using decision tree learning. RESULTS:Evaluating 2,878 admission swabs from 2,165 patients, we found that 7.5% and 1.3% of swabs were CRO and CPO positive, respectively. Organism and carbapenemase diversity among CPO isolates was high. Despite including many characteristics commonly associated with CRO/CPO carriage or infection, overall, decision tree models poorly predicted CRO and CPO colonization (C statistics, 0.57 and 0.58, respectively). In subgroup analyses, however, models did accurately identify patients with recent CRO-positive cultures who use proton-pump inhibitors as having a high likelihood of CRO colonization. CONCLUSIONS:In this inpatient population, CRO carriage was infrequent but was higher than previously published estimates. Despite including many variables associated with CRO/CPO carriage, models poorly predicted colonization status, likely due to significant host and organism heterogeneity.

SUBMITTER: Goodman KE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6613376 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting probability of perirectal colonization with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) and other carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs) at hospital unit admission.

Goodman Katherine E KE Simner Patricia J PJ Klein Eili Y EY Kazmi Abida Q AQ Gadala Avinash A Toerper Matthew F MF Levin Scott S Tamma Pranita D PD Rock Clare C Cosgrove Sara E SE Maragakis Lisa L LL Milstone Aaron M AM

Infection control and hospital epidemiology 20190327 5

<h4>Background</h4>Targeted screening for carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs), including carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) and carbapenemase-producing organisms (CPOs), remains limited; recent data suggest that existing policies miss many carriers.<h4>Objective</h4>Our objective was to measure the prevalence of CRO and CPO perirectal colonization at hospital unit admission and to use machine learning methods to predict probability of CRO and/or CPO carriage.<h4>Methods</h4>We perfo ...[more]

PMID: 30915928

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Project description:BackgroundCarbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) have emerged as an urgent public health threat. Intestinal colonization with CRE has been identified as a risk factor for the development of systemic CRE infection, but has not been compared to colonization with third and/or fourth generation cephalosporin-resistant (Ceph-R) Enterobacteriaceae. Moreover, the risk conferred by colonization on adverse outcomes is less clear, particularly in critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).MethodsWe carried out a cohort study of consecutive adult patients screened for rectal colonization with CRE or Ceph-R upon ICU entry between April and July 2013. We identified clinical variables and assessed the relationship between CRE or Ceph-R colonization and subsequent systemic CRE infection within 30 days (primary outcome) and all-cause mortality within 90 days (secondary outcome).ResultsAmong 338 ICU patients, 94 (28%) were colonized with either Ceph-R or CRE. 26 patients developed CRE infection within 30 days of swab collection; 47% (N = 17/36) of CRE-colonized and 3% (N = 2/58) of Ceph-R colonized patients. 36% (N = 13/36) of CRE-colonized patients died within 90 days compared to 31% (N = 18/58) of Ceph-R-colonized and 15% (N = 37/244) of non-colonized patients. In a multivariable analysis, CRE colonization independently predicted development of a systemic CRE infection at 30 days (aOR 10.8, 95% CI2.8-41.9, p = 0.0006); Ceph-R colonization did not (aOR 0.5, 95% CI0.1-3.3, p = 0.5). CRE colonization was associated with increased 90-day mortality in a univariable analysis (p-value 0.001), in a multivariable model, previous hospitalization and medical ICU admission were independent predictors of 90-day mortality whereas CRE colonization approached significance (aOR 2.3, 95% CI1.0-5.3, p = 0.056).ConclusionsOur study highlights the increased risk of CRE infection and mortality in patients with CRE colonization at the time of ICU admission. Future studies are needed to assess how CRE colonization can guide empiric antibiotic choices and to develop novel decolonization strategies.

Project description:BackgroundSearching the risk factors for carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) infection is important in clinical practice. In the present study, we aim to investigate bacterial characteristics of colonizing strains and their correlation with subsequent CRE infection.MethodsBetween May 2018 and January 2019, patients hospitalized in the department of haematology and intensive care unit (ICU) were screened for CRE by rectal swabs and monitored for the outcome of infection. We identified the species and carbapenemase-encoding genes of colonizing strains and performed antimicrobial susceptibility tests and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Risk factors for subsequent CRE infections were ascertained by univariate and multivariable analysis.ResultsWe collected a total of 219 colonizing strains from 153 patients. Klebsiella pneumoniae was the most abundant species, and MLST analysis showed rich diversity. K. pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC) was predominant in the infection group (72.4%). In the non-infection group, 35.4% of strains were non-carbapenemase-producing CRE (NCP-CRE), and New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM) was predominant (42.2%). The rate of high-level carbapenem resistance (minimum inhibitory concentration [MIC] ≥ 64 mg/L for meropenem and ertapenem, ≥ 32 mg/L for imipenem) was remarkably higher in the infection group than in the non-infection group (P < 0.001). Univariate analysis showed that K. pneumoniae, high-level carbapenem resistance, CP-CRE and KPC-CRE were infection risk factors after CRE colonization. On multivariable analysis with different carbapenemase dichotomizations, KPC-CRE (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.507; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.339-15.171; P = 0.015) or imipenem MIC ≥ 32 mg/L (aOR, 9.515; 95% CI, 1.617-55.977; P = 0.013) were respectively identified as independent risk factors for subsequent infection.ConclusionsPatients colonized with KPC-CRE or strains with an imipenem MIC ≥ 32 mg/L were at particularly high risk of subsequent CRE infections during their hospital stay.

Dataset Information

Predicting probability of perirectal colonization with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) and other carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs) at hospital unit admission.

Publications

Predicting probability of perirectal colonization with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) and other carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs) at hospital unit admission.

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