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A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models.

ABSTRACT: A major conundrum in climate science is how to account for dependence between climate models. This complicates interpretation of probabilistic projections derived from such models. Here we show that this problem can be addressed using a novel method to test multiple non-exclusive hypotheses, and to make predictions under such hypotheses. We apply the method to probabilistically estimate the level of global warming needed for a September ice-free Arctic, using an ensemble of historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 emissions scenario climate model runs. We show that not accounting for model dependence can lead to biased projections. Incorporating more constraints on models may minimize the impact of neglecting model non-exclusivity. Most likely, September Arctic sea ice will effectively disappear at between approximately 2 and 2.5?K of global warming. Yet, limiting the warming to 1.5?K under the Paris agreement may not be sufficient to prevent the ice-free Arctic.

SUBMITTER: Olson R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6616623 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models.

Olson R R An S-I SI Fan Y Y Chang W W Evans J P JP Lee J-Y JY

Nature communications 20190709 1

A major conundrum in climate science is how to account for dependence between climate models. This complicates interpretation of probabilistic projections derived from such models. Here we show that this problem can be addressed using a novel method to test multiple non-exclusive hypotheses, and to make predictions under such hypotheses. We apply the method to probabilistically estimate the level of global warming needed for a September ice-free Arctic, using an ensemble of historical and repres ...[more]

PMID: 31289260

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Project description:BackgroundMouse studies have recently compared the age-onset patterns of cancer between different genotypes. Genes associated with earlier onset are tentatively assigned a causal role in carcinogenesis. These standard analyses ignore the great amount of information about kinetics contained in age-onset curves. We present a method for analyzing kinetics that measures quantitatively the causal role of candidate genes in cancer progression. We use our method to demonstrate a clear association between somatic mutation rates of different DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genotypes and the kinetics of cancer progression.MethodsMost experimental studies report age-onset curves as the fraction diagnosed with tumors at each age for each group. We use such data to estimate smoothed survival curves, then measure incidence rates at each age by the slope of the fitted curve divided by the fraction of mice that remain undiagnosed for tumors at that age. With the estimated incidence curves, we compare between different genotypes the median age of cancer onset and the acceleration of cancer, which is the rate of increase in incidence with age.ResultsThe direction of change in somatic mutation rate between MMR genotypes predicts the direction of change in the acceleration of cancer onset in all 7 cases (p approximately 0.008), with the same result for the association between mutation rate and the median age of onset.ConclusionMany animal experiments compare qualitatively the onset curves for different genotypes. If such experiments were designed to analyze kinetics, the research could move to the next stage in which the mechanistic consequences of particular genetic pathways are related to the dynamics of carcinogenesis. The data we analyzed here were not collected to test mechanistic and quantitative hypotheses about kinetics. Even so, a simple reanalysis revealed significant insights about how DNA repair genotypes affect separately the age of onset and the acceleration of cancer. Our method of comparing genotypes provides good statistical tests even with small samples for each genotype.

Dataset Information

A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models.

Publications

A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models.

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