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Accurate outcome prediction after neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy for rectal cancer based on a TCP-based early regression index.


ABSTRACT:

Background and purpose

An early tumor regression index (ERITCP) was previously introduced and found to predict pathological response after neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy of rectal cancer. ERITCP was tested as a potential biomarker in predicting long-term disease-free survival.

Materials and methods

Data of 65 patients treated with an early regression-guided adaptive boosting technique (ART) were available. Overall, loco-regional relapse-free and distant metastasis-free survival (OS, LRFS, DMFS) were considered. Patients received 41.4?Gy in 18 fractions (2.3?Gy/fr), including ART concomitant boost on the residual GTV during the last 6 fractions (3?Gy/fr, Dmean: 45.6?Gy). Chemotherapy included oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil (5-FU). T2-weighted MRI taken before (MRIpre) and at half therapy (MRIhalf) were available and GTVs were contoured (Vpre, Vhalf). The parameter ERITCP?=?-ln[(1?-?(Vhalf/Vpre))Vpre] was calculated for all patients. Cox regression models were assessed considering several clinical and histological variables. Cox models not including/including ERITCP (CONV_model and REGR_model respectively) were assessed and their discriminative power compared.

Results

At a median follow-up of 47?months, OS, LRFS and DMFS were 94%, 95% and 78%. Due to too few events, multivariable analyses focused on DMFS: the resulting CONV_model included pathological complete remission or clinical complete remission followed by surgery refusal (HR: 0.15, p?=?0.07) and 5-FU dose >90% (HR: 0.29, p?=?0.03) as best predictors, with AUC?=?0.75. REGR_model included ERITCP (HR: 1.019, p?90% (HR: 0.18, p?=?0.005); AUC was 0.86, significantly higher than CONV_model (p?=?0.05). Stratifying patients according to the best cut-off value for ERITCP and to 5-FU dose (> vs <90%) resulted in 47-month DMFS equal to 100%/69%/0% for patients with two/one/zero positive factors respectively (p?=?0.0002). ERITCP was also the only variable significantly associated to OS (p?=?0.01) and LRFS (p?=?0.03).

Conclusion

ERITCP predicts long-term DMFS after radio-chemotherapy for rectal cancer: an independent impact of the 5-FU dose was also found. This result represents a first step toward application of ERITCP in treatment personalization: additional confirmation on independent cohorts is warranted.

SUBMITTER: Fiorino C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6617292 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Accurate outcome prediction after neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy for rectal cancer based on a TCP-based early regression index.

Fiorino Claudio C   Passoni Paolo P   Palmisano Anna A   Gumina Calogero C   Cattaneo Giovanni M GM   Broggi Sara S   Di Chiara Alessandra A   Esposito Antonio A   Mori Martina M   Ronzoni Monica M   Rosati Riccardo R   Slim Najla N   De Cobelli Francesco F   Calandrino Riccardo R   Di Muzio Nadia G NG  

Clinical and translational radiation oncology 20190703


<h4>Background and purpose</h4>An early tumor regression index (ERI<sub>TCP</sub>) was previously introduced and found to predict pathological response after neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy of rectal cancer. ERI<sub>TCP</sub> was tested as a potential biomarker in predicting long-term disease-free survival.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>Data of 65 patients treated with an early regression-guided adaptive boosting technique (ART) were available. Overall, loco-regional relapse-free and distant meta  ...[more]

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