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Decision models of prediabetes populations: A systematic review.

ABSTRACT: AIMS:With evidence supporting the use of preventive interventions for prediabetes populations and the use of novel biomarkers to stratify the risk of progression, there is a need to evaluate their cost-effectiveness across jurisdictions. Our aim is to summarize and assess the quality and validity of decision models and model-based economic evaluations of populations with prediabetes, to evaluate their potential use for the assessment of novel prevention strategies and to discuss the knowledge gaps, challenges and opportunities. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We searched Medline, Embase, EconLit and NHS EED between 2000 and 2018 for studies reporting computer simulation models of the natural history of individuals with prediabetes and/or we used decision models to evaluate the impact of treatment strategies on these populations. Data were extracted following PRISMA guidelines and assessed using modelling checklists. Two reviewers independently assessed 50% of the titles and abstracts to determine whether a full text review was needed. Of these, 10% was assessed by each reviewer to cross-reference the decision to proceed to full review. Using a standardized form and double extraction, each of four reviewers extracted 50% of the identified studies. RESULTS:A total of 29 published decision models that simulate prediabetes populations were identified. Studies showed large variations in the definition of prediabetes and model structure. The inclusion of complications in prediabetes (n?=?8) and type 2 diabetes (n?=?17) health states also varied. A minority of studies simulated annual changes in risk factors (glycaemia, HbA1c, blood pressure, BMI, lipids) as individuals progressed in the models (n?=?7) and accounted for heterogeneity among individuals with prediabetes (n?=?7). CONCLUSIONS:Current prediabetes decision models have considerable limitations in terms of their quality and validity and do not allow evaluation of stratified strategies using novel biomarkers, highlighting a clear need for more comprehensive prediabetes decision models.

SUBMITTER: Leal J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6619188 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Decision models of prediabetes populations: A systematic review.

Leal Jose J Morrow Liam Mc LM Khurshid Waqar W Pagano Eva E Feenstra Talitha T

Diabetes, obesity & metabolism 20190401 7

<h4>Aims</h4>With evidence supporting the use of preventive interventions for prediabetes populations and the use of novel biomarkers to stratify the risk of progression, there is a need to evaluate their cost-effectiveness across jurisdictions. Our aim is to summarize and assess the quality and validity of decision models and model-based economic evaluations of populations with prediabetes, to evaluate their potential use for the assessment of novel prevention strategies and to discuss the know ...[more]

PMID: 30828927

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Project description:ObjectivesTo (1) provide an up-to-date overview of shared decision making (SDM)-models, (2) give insight in the prominence of components present in SDM-models, (3) describe who is identified as responsible within the components (patient, healthcare professional, both, none), (4) show the occurrence of SDM-components over time, and (5) present an SDM-map to identify SDM-components seen as key, per healthcare setting.DesignSystematic review.Eligibility criteriaPeer-reviewed articles in English presenting a new or adapted model of SDM.Information sourcesAcademic Search Premier, Cochrane, Embase, Emcare, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Web of Science were systematically searched for articles published up to and including September 2, 2019.ResultsForty articles were included, each describing a unique SDM-model. Twelve models were generic, the others were specific to a healthcare setting. Fourteen were based on empirical data, 26 primarily on analytical thinking. Fifty-three different elements were identified and clustered into 24 components. Overall, Describe treatment options was the most prominent component across models. Components present in >50% of models were: Make the decision (75%), Patient preferences (65%), Tailor information (65%), Deliberate (58%), Create choice awareness (55%), and Learn about the patient (53%). In the majority of the models (27/40), both healthcare professional and patient were identified as actors. Over time, Describe treatment options and Make the decision are the two components which are present in most models in any time period. Create choice awareness stood out for being present in a markedly larger proportion of models over time.ConclusionsThis review provides an up-to-date overview of SDM-models, showing that SDM-models quite consistently share some components but that a unified view on what SDM is, is still lacking. Clarity about what SDM constitutes is essential though for implementation, assessment, and research purposes. A map is offered to identify SDM-components seen as key.Trial registrationPROSPERO registration CRD42015019740.

Project description:IntroductionDiabetes is a major public health problem and prediabetes (intermediate hyperglycaemia) is associated with a high risk of developing diabetes. With evidence supporting the use of preventive interventions for prediabetes populations and the discovery of novel biomarkers stratifying the risk of progression, there is a need to evaluate their cost-effectiveness across jurisdictions. In diabetes and prediabetes, it is relevant to inform cost-effectiveness analysis using decision models due to their ability to forecast long-term health outcomes and costs beyond the time frame of clinical trials. To support good implementation and reimbursement decisions of interventions in these populations, models should be clinically credible, based on best available evidence, reproducible and validated against clinical data. Our aim is to identify recent studies on computer simulation models and model-based economic evaluations of populations of individuals with prediabetes, qualify them and discuss the knowledge gaps, challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed for future evaluations.Methods and analysisA systematic review will be conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, EconLit and National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database. We will extract peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2016 that describe computer simulation models of the natural history of individuals with prediabetes and/or decision models to evaluate the impact of interventions, risk stratification and/or screening on these populations. Two reviewers will independently assess each study for inclusion. Data will be extracted using a predefined pro forma developed using best practice. Study quality will be assessed using a modelling checklist. A narrative synthesis of all studies will be presented, focussing on model structure, quality of models and input data, and validation status.Ethics and disseminationThis systematic review is exempt from ethics approval because the work is carried out on published documents. The findings of the review will be disseminated in a related peer-reviewed journal and presented at conferences.Reviewregistration numberCRD42016047228.

Project description:There is ongoing debate about the harms and benefits of a national prostate cancer screening programme. Several model-based cost-effectiveness analyses have been developed to determine whether the benefits of prostate cancer screening outweigh the costs and harms caused by over-detection and over-treatment, and the different approaches may impact results.To identify models of prostate cancer used to assess the cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening strategies, a systematic review of articles published since 2006 was conducted using the NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Medline, EMBASE and HTA databases. The NICE website, UK National Screening website, reference lists from relevant studies were also searched and experts contacted. Key model features, inputs, and cost-effectiveness recommendations were extracted.Ten studies were included. Four of the studies identified some screening strategies to be potentially cost-effective at a PSA threshold of 3.0 ng/ml, including single screen at 55 years, annual or two yearly screens starting at 55 years old, and delayed radical treatment. Prostate cancer screening was modelled using both individual and cohort level models. Model pathways to reflect cancer progression varied widely, Gleason grade was not always considered and clinical verification was rarely outlined. Where quality of life was considered, the methods used did not follow recommended practice and key issues of overdiagnosis and overtreatment were not addressed by all studies.The cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening is unclear. There was no consensus on the optimal model type or approach to model prostate cancer progression. Due to limited data availability, individual patient-level modelling is unlikely to increase the accuracy of cost-effectiveness results compared with cohort-level modelling, but is more suitable when assessing adaptive screening strategies. Modelling prostate cancer is challenging and the justification for the data used and the approach to modelling natural disease progression was lacking. Country-specific data are required and recommended methods used to incorporate quality of life. Influence of data inputs on cost-effectiveness results need to be comprehensively assessed and the model structure and assumptions verified by clinical experts.

Project description:Decision-making has many different definitions and is measured in varied ways using neuropsychological tasks. Offenders with mental disorder habitually make disadvantageous decisions, but no study has systematically appraised the literature. This review aimed to clarify the field by bringing together different neuropsychological measures of decision-making, and using meta-analysis and systematic review to explore the performance of offenders with mental disorders on neuropsychological tasks of decision-making. A structured search of PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, Medline, Cinahl was conducted with additional hand searching and grey literature consulted. Controlled studies of decision-making in offenders with evidence of any mental disorder, including a validated measure of decision-making were included. Total score on each relevant decision-making task was collated. Twenty-three studies met inclusion criteria (n = 1820), and 10 studies (with 15 experiments) were entered into the meta-analysis (n = 841). All studies included in the meta-analysis used the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to measure decision-making. Systematic review findings from individual studies showed violent offenders made poorer decisions than matched offender groups or controls. An omnibus meta-analysis was computed to examine performance on IGT in offenders with mental disorder compared with controls. Additionally, two sub-group meta-analyses were computed for studies involving offenders with personality disorder and psychopathy, and recidivists who were convicted of Driving While Intoxicated (DWI). Individual studies not included in the meta-analysis partially supported the view that offenders make poorer decisions. However, the meta-analyses showed no significant differences in performance on IGT between the offender groups and controls. Further research is required to ascertain whether offenders with mental disorder have difficulty in making advantageous decisions. An analysis of cause and effect and various directions for future work are recommended to help understand the underpinning of these findings. Trial Registration: CRD42018088402 .

Project description:BACKGROUND:Chronic wounds such as diabetic foot ulcers, venous leg ulcers, and pressure ulcers are a massive burden to health care facilities. Many randomized controlled trials on different wound care elements have been conducted and published in the Cochrane Library, all of which have only a low evidential basis. Thus, health care professionals are forced to rely on their own experience when making decisions regarding wound care. To progress from experience-based practice to evidence-based wound care practice, clinical decision support systems (CDSS) that help health care providers with decision-making in a clinical workflow have been developed. These systems have proven useful in many areas of the health care sector, partly because they have increased the quality of care, and partially because they have generated a solid basis for evidence-based practice. However, no systematic reviews focus on CDSS within the field of wound care to chronic wounds. OBJECTIVE:The aims of this systematic literature review are (1) to identify models used in CDSS that support health care professionals treating chronic wounds, and (2) to classify each clinical decision support model according to selected variables and to create an overview. METHODS:A systematic review was conducted using 6 databases. This systematic literature review follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement for systematic reviews. The search strategy consisted of three facets, respectively: Facet 1 (Algorithm), Facet 2 (Wound care) and Facet 3 (Clinical decision support system). Studies based on acute wounds or trauma were excluded. Similarly, studies that presented guidelines, protocols and instructions were excluded, since they do not require progression along an active chain of reasoning from the clinicians, just their focus. Finally, studies were excluded if they had not undergone a peer review process. The following aspects were extracted from each article: authors, year, country, the sample size of data and variables describing the type of clinical decision support models. The decision support models were classified in 2 ways: quantitative decision support models, and qualitative decision support models. RESULTS:The final number of studies included in the systematic literature review was 10. These clinical decision support models included 4/10 (40%) quantitative decision support models and 6/10 (60%) qualitative decision support models. The earliest article was published in 2007, and the most recent was from 2015. CONCLUSIONS:The clinical decision support models were targeted at a variety of different types of chronic wounds. The degree of accessibility of the inference engines varied. Quantitative models served as the engine and were invisible to the health care professionals, while qualitative models required interaction with the user.

Project description:ObjectiveCritically appraise prediction models for hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) in general populations.DesignSystematic review.Data sourcesMedline, Embase and Web of Science until November 2016.EligibilityStudies describing development of a multivariable model for predicting HA-AKI in non-specialised adult hospital populations. Published guidance followed for data extraction reporting and appraisal.Results14?046 references were screened. Of 53 HA-AKI prediction models, 11 met inclusion criteria (general medicine and/or surgery populations, 474?478 patient episodes) and five externally validated. The most common predictors were age (n=9 models), diabetes (5), admission serum creatinine (SCr) (5), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (4), drugs (diuretics (4) and/or ACE inhibitors/angiotensin-receptor blockers (3)), bicarbonate and heart failure (4 models each). Heterogeneity was identified for outcome definition. Deficiencies in reporting included handling of predictors, missing data and sample size. Admission SCr was frequently taken to represent baseline renal function. Most models were considered at high risk of bias. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves to predict HA-AKI ranged 0.71-0.80 in derivation (reported in 8/11 studies), 0.66-0.80 for internal validation studies (n=7) and 0.65-0.71 in five external validations. For calibration, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test or a calibration plot was provided in 4/11 derivations, 3/11 internal and 3/5 external validations. A minority of the models allow easy bedside calculation and potential electronic automation. No impact analysis studies were found.ConclusionsAKI prediction models may help address shortcomings in risk assessment; however, in general hospital populations, few have external validation. Similar predictors reflect an elderly demographic with chronic comorbidities. Reporting deficiencies mirrors prediction research more broadly, with handling of SCr (baseline function and use as a predictor) a concern. Future research should focus on validation, exploration of electronic linkage and impact analysis. The latter could combine a prediction model with AKI alerting to address prevention and early recognition of evolving AKI.

Project description:ObjectiveTo conduct a systematic review of cross-sectional and prospective human studies evaluating metabolite markers identified using high-throughput metabolomics techniques on prediabetes and type 2 diabetes.Research design and methodsWe searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases through August 2015. We conducted a qualitative review of cross-sectional and prospective studies. Additionally, meta-analyses of metabolite markers, with data estimates from at least three prospective studies, and type 2 diabetes risk were conducted, and multivariable-adjusted relative risks of type 2 diabetes were calculated per study-specific SD difference in a given metabolite.ResultsWe identified 27 cross-sectional and 19 prospective publications reporting associations of metabolites and prediabetes and/or type 2 diabetes. Carbohydrate (glucose and fructose), lipid (phospholipids, sphingomyelins, and triglycerides), and amino acid (branched-chain amino acids, aromatic amino acids, glycine, and glutamine) metabolites were higher in individuals with type 2 diabetes compared with control subjects. Prospective studies provided evidence that blood concentrations of several metabolites, including hexoses, branched-chain amino acids, aromatic amino acids, phospholipids, and triglycerides, were associated with the incidence of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes. We meta-analyzed results from eight prospective studies that reported risk estimates for metabolites and type 2 diabetes, including 8,000 individuals of whom 1,940 had type 2 diabetes. We found 36% higher risk of type 2 diabetes per study-specific SD difference for isoleucine (pooled relative risk 1.36 [1.24-1.48]; I(2) = 9.5%), 36% for leucine (1.36 [1.17-1.58]; I(2) = 37.4%), 35% for valine (1.35 [1.19-1.53]; I(2) = 45.8%), 36% for tyrosine (1.36 [1.19-1.55]; I(2) = 51.6%), and 26% for phenylalanine (1.26 [1.10-1.44]; I(2) = 56%). Glycine and glutamine were inversely associated with type 2 diabetes risk (0.89 [0.81-0.96] and 0.85 [0.82-0.89], respectively; both I(2) = 0.0%).ConclusionsIn studies using high-throughput metabolomics, several blood amino acids appear to be consistently associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

Project description:Aims/hypothesisCardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) is independently associated with silent myocardial ischaemia, major cardiovascular events, myocardial dysfunction and cardiovascular mortality. Several studies have highlighted the increased prevalence of CAN in prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance and/or impaired fasting glucose). Considering the exponential rise of prediabetes, we aimed to determine the prevalence of CAN through a systematic literature review.MethodsThis systematic review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42019125447). An electronic literature search was performed using MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus and Cochrane databases. Published full text, English language articles that provide CAN prevalence data of studies in individuals with prediabetes and aged over 18 years were included. Prevalence data for normal glucose tolerance and diabetes were also extracted from the selected articles, if present. All articles were screened by two independent reviewers using a priori criteria. Methodological quality and risk of bias were evaluated using a critical appraisal tool.ResultsDatabase searches found 4500 articles; subsequently, 199 full text articles were screened, 11 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria (4431 total participants, 1730 people with prediabetes, 1999 people with normal glucose tolerance [NGT] and 702 people with predominantly type 2 diabetes). Six of the selected studies reported definite CAN prevalence data (9-39%). Only a single large population-based study by Ziegler et al (KORA S4 study, 1332 participants) determined definite CAN based on two or more positive autonomic function tests (AFTs), with a mean prevalence of 9% in all prediabetes groups (isolated impaired glucose tolerance 5.9%; isolated impaired fasting glucose 8.1%; impaired fasting glucose plus impaired glucose tolerance 11.4%), which was higher than NGT (4.5%). This study is most likely to provide a reliable population-specific estimate of CAN in prediabetes. There was a higher than expected prevalence of CAN in prediabetes (9-38%) when compared with normal glucose tolerance (0-18%) within the same studies (n = 8). There was a wide prevalence of possible CAN based on one positive AFT (n = 5). There was heterogeneity between the studies with variations in the definition of CAN, methodology and characteristics of the populations, which likely contributed to the diversity of prevalence estimates. The overall risk of bias was low.Conclusions/interpretationThere is a higher than expected prevalence of CAN in prediabetes. Early detection of CAN in prediabetes through population screening needs careful consideration in view of the excess morbidity and mortality risk associated with this condition. Graphical abstract.

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Decision models of prediabetes populations: A systematic review.

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Decision models of prediabetes populations: A systematic review.

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