Dataset Information

Improved Monte Carlo methods for estimating confidence intervals for eleven commonly used health disparity measures.

ABSTRACT: Health disparities are commonplace and of broad interest to policy makers, but are also challenging to measure and communicate. The Health Disparity Calculator software (HD*Calc, v1.2.4) offers Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)-based confidence interval (CI) estimation of eleven disparity measures. The MCS approach provides accurate CI estimation, except when data are scarce (e.g., rare cancers). To address sparse data challenges to CI estimation, we propose two solutions: 1) employing the gamma distribution in the MCS and 2) utilizing a zero-inflated Poisson estimate for Poisson sampling in simulation experiments. We evaluate each solution through simulation studies using female breast, female brain, lung, and cervical cancer data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. We compare the coverage probabilities (CPs) of eleven health disparity measures based on simulated datasets. The truncated normal distribution implemented in the MCS with the standard Poisson samples (the default setting of HD*Calc) leads to less-than-optimal coverage probabilities (<95%). When both the gamma distribution and the estimated mean from the zero-inflated Poisson are used for the MCS, the coverage probabilities are close to the nominal level of 95%. Simulation studies also demonstrate that collapsing age categories for better CI estimation is not a pragmatic solution.

SUBMITTER: Ahn J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6622532 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Improved Monte Carlo methods for estimating confidence intervals for eleven commonly used health disparity measures.

Ahn Jaeil J Harper Sam S Yu Mandi M Feuer Eric J EJ Liu Benmei B

PloS one 20190711 7

Health disparities are commonplace and of broad interest to policy makers, but are also challenging to measure and communicate. The Health Disparity Calculator software (HD*Calc, v1.2.4) offers Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)-based confidence interval (CI) estimation of eleven disparity measures. The MCS approach provides accurate CI estimation, except when data are scarce (e.g., rare cancers). To address sparse data challenges to CI estimation, we propose two solutions: 1) employing the gamma dist ...[more]

PMID: 31295305

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Project description:BackgroundThe dynamics of gene regulation play a crucial role in a cellular control: allowing the cell to express the right proteins to meet changing needs. Some needs, such as correctly anticipating the day-night cycle, require complicated oscillatory features. In the analysis of gene regulatory networks, mathematical models are frequently used to understand how a network's structure enables it to respond appropriately to external inputs. These models typically consist of a set of ordinary differential equations, describing a network of biochemical reactions, and unknown kinetic parameters, chosen such that the model best captures experimental data. However, since a model's parameter values are uncertain, and since dynamic responses to inputs are highly parameter-dependent, it is difficult to assess the confidence associated with these in silico predictions. In particular, models with complex dynamics - such as oscillations - must be fit with computationally expensive global optimization routines, and cannot take advantage of existing measures of identifiability. Despite their difficulty to model mathematically, limit cycle oscillations play a key role in many biological processes, including cell cycling, metabolism, neuron firing, and circadian rhythms.ResultsIn this study, we employ an efficient parameter estimation technique to enable a bootstrap uncertainty analysis for limit cycle models. Since the primary role of systems biology models is the insight they provide on responses to rate perturbations, we extend our uncertainty analysis to include first order sensitivity coefficients. Using a literature model of circadian rhythms, we show how predictive precision is degraded with decreasing sample points and increasing relative error. Additionally, we show how this method can be used for model discrimination by comparing the output identifiability of two candidate model structures to published literature data.ConclusionsOur method permits modellers of oscillatory systems to confidently show that a model's dynamic characteristics follow directly from experimental data and model structure, relaxing assumptions on the particular parameters chosen. Ultimately, this work highlights the importance of continued collection of high-resolution data on gene and protein activity levels, as they allow the development of predictive mathematical models.

Dataset Information

Improved Monte Carlo methods for estimating confidence intervals for eleven commonly used health disparity measures.

Publications

Improved Monte Carlo methods for estimating confidence intervals for eleven commonly used health disparity measures.

Similar Datasets

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