Dataset Information

A Real-Time Early Warning System for Monitoring Inpatient Mortality Risk: Prospective Study Using Electronic Medical Record Data.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The rapid deterioration observed in the condition of some hospitalized patients can be attributed to either disease progression or imperfect triage and level of care assignment after their admission. An early warning system (EWS) to identify patients at high risk of subsequent intrahospital death can be an effective tool for ensuring patient safety and quality of care and reducing avoidable harm and costs.

Objective

The aim of this study was to prospectively validate a real-time EWS designed to predict patients at high risk of inpatient mortality during their hospital episodes.

Methods

Data were collected from the system-wide electronic medical record (EMR) of two acute Berkshire Health System hospitals, comprising 54,246 inpatient admissions from January 1, 2015, to September 30, 2017, of which 2.30% (1248/54,246) resulted in intrahospital deaths. Multiple machine learning methods (linear and nonlinear) were explored and compared. The tree-based random forest method was selected to develop the predictive application for the intrahospital mortality assessment. After constructing the model, we prospectively validated the algorithms as a real-time inpatient EWS for mortality.

Results

The EWS algorithm scored patients' daily and long-term risk of inpatient mortality probability after admission and stratified them into distinct risk groups. In the prospective validation, the EWS prospectively attained a c-statistic of 0.884, where 99 encounters were captured in the highest risk group, 69% (68/99) of whom died during the episodes. It accurately predicted the possibility of death for the top 13.3% (34/255) of the patients at least 40.8 hours before death. Important clinical utilization features, together with coded diagnoses, vital signs, and laboratory test results were recognized as impactful predictors in the final EWS.

Conclusions

In this study, we prospectively demonstrated the capability of the newly-designed EWS to monitor and alert clinicians about patients at high risk of in-hospital death in real time, thereby providing opportunities for timely interventions. This real-time EWS is able to assist clinical decision making and enable more actionable and effective individualized care for patients' better health outcomes in target medical facilities.

SUBMITTER: Ye C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6640073 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A Real-Time Early Warning System for Monitoring Inpatient Mortality Risk: Prospective Study Using Electronic Medical Record Data.

Ye Chengyin C Wang Oliver O Liu Modi M Zheng Le L Xia Minjie M Hao Shiying S Jin Bo B Jin Hua H Zhu Chunqing C Huang Chao Jung CJ Gao Peng P Ellrodt Gray G Brennan Denny D Stearns Frank F Sylvester Karl G KG Widen Eric E McElhinney Doff B DB Ling Xuefeng X

Journal of medical Internet research 20190705 7

<h4>Background</h4>The rapid deterioration observed in the condition of some hospitalized patients can be attributed to either disease progression or imperfect triage and level of care assignment after their admission. An early warning system (EWS) to identify patients at high risk of subsequent intrahospital death can be an effective tool for ensuring patient safety and quality of care and reducing avoidable harm and costs.<h4>Objective</h4>The aim of this study was to prospectively validate a ...[more]

PMID: 31278734

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectivesTo determine whether a statistically derived, trend-based, deterioration index is superior to other early warning scores at predicting adverse events and whether it can be integrated into an electronic medical record to enable real-time alerts.DesignForty-three variables and their trends from cases and controls were used to develop a logistic model and deterioration index to predict patient deterioration greater than or equal to 1 hour prior to an adverse event.SettingTwo large Australian teaching hospitals.PatientsCases were considered as patients who suffered adverse events (unexpected death, unplanned ICU transfer, urgent surgery, and rapid-response alert) between August 1, 2016, and April 1, 2019.InterventionsThe logistic model and deterioration index were tested on historical data and then integrated into an electronic medical record for a 6-month prospective "silent" validation.Measurements and main resultsData were acquired from 258,732 admissions. There were 8,002 adverse events. The addition of vital sign and laboratory trend values to the logistic model increased the area under the curve from 0.84 to 0.89 and the sensitivity to predict an adverse event 1-48 hours prior from 0.35 to 0.41. A 48-hour simulation showed that the logistic model had a higher area under the curve than the Modified Early Warning Score and National Early Warning Score (0.87 vs 0.74 vs 0.71). During the silently run prospective trial, the sensitivity of the deterioration index to detect adverse event any time prior to the adverse event was 0.474, 0.369 1 hour prior, and 0.327 4 hours prior, with a specificity of 0.972.ConclusionsA deterioration prediction model was developed using patient demographics, ward-based observations, laboratory values, and their trends. The model's outputs were converted to a deterioration index that was successfully integrated into a live hospital electronic medical record. The sensitivity and specificity of the tool to detect inpatient deterioration were superior to traditional early warning scores.

Project description:ImportanceNumerous prognostic models of suicide risk have been published, but few have been implemented outside of integrated managed care systems.ObjectiveTo evaluate performance of a suicide attempt risk prediction model implemented in a vendor-supplied electronic health record to predict subsequent (1) suicidal ideation and (2) suicide attempt.Design, setting, and participantsThis observational cohort study evaluated implementation of a suicide attempt prediction model in live clinical systems without alerting. The cohort comprised patients seen for any reason in adult inpatient, emergency department, and ambulatory surgery settings at an academic medical center in the mid-South from June 2019 to April 2020.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary measures assessed external, prospective, and concurrent validity. Manual medical record validation of coded suicide attempts confirmed incident behaviors with intent to die. Subgroup analyses were performed based on demographic characteristics, relevant clinical context/setting, and presence or absence of universal screening. Performance was evaluated using discrimination (number needed to screen, C statistics, positive/negative predictive values) and calibration (Spiegelhalter z statistic). Recalibration was performed with logistic calibration.ResultsThe system generated 115 905 predictions for 77 973 patients (42 490 [54%] men, 35 404 [45%] women, 60 586 [78%] White, 12 620 [16%] Black). Numbers needed to screen in highest risk quantiles were 23 and 271 for suicidal ideation and attempt, respectively. Performance was maintained across demographic subgroups. Numbers needed to screen for suicide attempt by sex were 256 for men and 323 for women; and by race: 373, 176, and 407 for White, Black, and non-White/non-Black patients, respectively. Model C statistics were, across the health system: 0.836 (95% CI, 0.836-0.837); adult hospital: 0.77 (95% CI, 0.77-0.772); emergency department: 0.778 (95% CI, 0.777-0.778); psychiatry inpatient settings: 0.634 (95% CI, 0.633-0.636). Predictions were initially miscalibrated (Spiegelhalter z = -3.1; P = .001) with improvement after recalibration (Spiegelhalter z = 1.1; P = .26).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, this real-time predictive model of suicide attempt risk showed reasonable numbers needed to screen in nonpsychiatric specialty settings in a large clinical system. Assuming that research-valid models will translate without performing this type of analysis risks inaccuracy in clinical practice, misclassification of risk, wasted effort, and missed opportunity to correct and prevent such problems. The next step is careful pairing with low-cost, low-harm preventive strategies in a pragmatic trial of effectiveness in preventing future suicidality.

Project description:BackgroundAbstracting cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) from inpatient electronic medical records (EMRs) through natural language processing (NLP) is pivotal for automated disease surveillance and improving patient outcomes. Existing methods rely on coders' abstraction, which has time delays and under-coding issues. This study sought to develop an NLP-based method to detect CeVD using EMR clinical notes.MethodsCeVD status was confirmed through a chart review on randomly selected hospitalized patients who were 18 years or older and discharged from 3 hospitals in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, between January 1 and June 30, 2015. These patients' chart data were linked to administrative discharge abstract database (DAD) and Sunrise™ Clinical Manager (SCM) EMR database records by Personal Health Number (a unique lifetime identifier) and admission date. We trained multiple natural language processing (NLP) predictive models by combining two clinical concept extraction methods and two supervised machine learning (ML) methods: random forest and XGBoost. Using chart review as the reference standard, we compared the model performances with those of the commonly applied International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10-CA) codes, on the metrics of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV).ResultOf the study sample (n = 3036), the prevalence of CeVD was 11.8% (n = 360); the median patient age was 63; and females accounted for 50.3% (n = 1528) based on chart data. Among 49 extracted clinical documents from the EMR, four document types were identified as the most influential text sources for identifying CeVD disease ("nursing transfer report," "discharge summary," "nursing notes," and "inpatient consultation."). The best performing NLP model was XGBoost, combining the Unified Medical Language System concepts extracted by cTAKES (e.g., top-ranked concepts, "Cerebrovascular accident" and "Transient ischemic attack"), and the term frequency-inverse document frequency vectorizer. Compared with ICD codes, the model achieved higher validity overall, such as sensitivity (25.0% vs 70.0%), specificity (99.3% vs 99.1%), PPV (82.6 vs. 87.8%), and NPV (90.8% vs 97.1%).ConclusionThe NLP algorithm developed in this study performed better than the ICD code algorithm in detecting CeVD. The NLP models could result in an automated EMR tool for identifying CeVD cases and be applied for future studies such as surveillance, and longitudinal studies.

Dataset Information

A Real-Time Early Warning System for Monitoring Inpatient Mortality Risk: Prospective Study Using Electronic Medical Record Data.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A Real-Time Early Warning System for Monitoring Inpatient Mortality Risk: Prospective Study Using Electronic Medical Record Data.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets