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Simplifying switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy in sub Saharan Africa: predicted effect of using a single viral load to define efavirenz-based first-line failure.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Many individuals failing first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa never initiate second-line ART or do so after significant delay. For people on ART with a viral load more than 1000 copies/ml, the WHO recommends a second viral load measurement 3 months after the first viral load and enhanced adherence support. Switch to a second-line regimen is contingent upon a persistently elevated viral load more than 1000 copies/ml. Delayed second-line switch places patients at increased risk for opportunistic infections and mortality. METHODS:To assess the potential benefits of a simplified second-line ART switch strategy, we use an individual-based model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of ART which incorporates consideration of adherence and drug resistance, to compare predicted outcomes of two policies, defining first-line regimen failure for patients on efavirenz-based ART as either two consecutive viral load values more than 1000 copies/ml, with the second after an enhanced adherence intervention (implemented as per current WHO guidelines) or a single viral load value more than 1000 copies/ml. We simulated a range of setting-scenarios reflecting the breadth of the sub-Saharan African HIV epidemic, taking into account potential delays in defining failure and switch to second-line ART. FINDINGS:The use of a single viral load more than 1000 copies/ml to define ART failure would lead to a higher proportion of persons with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor resistance switched to second-line ART [65 vs. 48%; difference 17% (90% range 14-20%)], resulting in a median 18% reduction in the rate of AIDS-related death over setting scenarios (90% range 6-30%; from a median of 3.1 to 2.5 per 100 person-years) over 3 years. The simplified strategy also is predicted to reduce the rate of AIDS conditions by a median of 31% (90% range 8-49%) among people on first-line ART with a viral load more than 1000 copies/ml in the past 6 months. For a country of 10 million adults (and a median of 880?000 people with HIV), we estimate that this approach would lead to a median of 1322 (90% range 67-3513) AIDS deaths averted per year over 3 years. For South Africa this would represent around 10?215 deaths averted annually. INTERPRETATION:As a step towards reducing unnecessary mortality associated with delayed second-line ART switch, defining failure of first-line efavirenz-based regimens as a single viral load more than 1000 copies/ml should be considered.

SUBMITTER: Shroufi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6641111 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Simplifying switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy in sub Saharan Africa: predicted effect of using a single viral load to define efavirenz-based first-line failure.

Shroufi Amir A Van Cutsem Gilles G Cambiano Valentina V Bansi-Matharu Loveleen L Duncan Kristal K Murphy Richard A RA Maman David D Phillips Andrew A

AIDS (London, England) 20190801 10

<h4>Background</h4>Many individuals failing first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa never initiate second-line ART or do so after significant delay. For people on ART with a viral load more than 1000 copies/ml, the WHO recommends a second viral load measurement 3 months after the first viral load and enhanced adherence support. Switch to a second-line regimen is contingent upon a persistently elevated viral load more than 1000 copies/ml. Delayed second-line switch places pa ...[more]

PMID: 31305331

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Project description:BackgroundThe number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030.MethodsWe developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included.FindingsDepending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries.InterpretationDonors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs.FundingWorld Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

Project description:ObjectivesRates of first-line treatment failure and switches to second-line therapy are key indicators for national HIV programmes. We assessed immunological treatment failure defined by WHO criteria in the Tanzanian national HIV programme.MethodsWe included adults initiating first-line therapy in 2004-2011 with a pre-treatment CD4 count, and ?6-months of follow-up. We assessed subhazard ratios (SHR) for immunological treatment failure, and subsequent switch to second-line therapy, using competing risks methods to account for deaths.ResultsOf 121 308 adults, 7% experienced immunological treatment failure, and 2% died without observed immunological treatment failure, over a median 1.7 years. The 6-year cumulative probability of immunological treatment failure was 19.0% (95% CI 18.5, 19.7) and of death, 5.1% (4.8, 5.4). Immunological treatment failure predictors included earlier year of treatment initiation (P < 0.001), initiation in lower level facilities (SHR = 2.23 [2.03, 2.45] for dispensaries vs. hospitals), being male (1.27 [1.19, 1.33]) and initiation at low or high CD4 counts (for example, 1.78 [1.65, 1.92] and 5.33 [4.65, 6.10] for <50 and ?500 vs. 200-349 cells/mm(3) , respectively). Of 7382 participants in the time-to-switch analysis, 6% switched and 5% died before switching. Four years after immunological treatment failure, the cumulative probability of switching was 7.3% (6.6, 8.0) and of death, 6.8% (6.0, 7.6). Those who immunologically failed in dispensaries, health centres and government facilities were least likely to switch.ConclusionsImmunological treatment failure rates and unmet need for second-line therapy are high in Tanzania; virological monitoring, at least for persons with immunological treatment failure, is required to minimise unnecessary switches to second-line therapy. Lower level government health facilities need more support to reduce treatment failure rates and improve second-line therapy uptake to sustain the benefits of increased coverage.

Project description:BackgroundCurrent World Health Organization (WHO) antiretroviral therapy (ART) guidelines define virologic failure as two consecutive viral load (VL) measurements ≥1,000 copies/mL, triggering empiric switch to next-line ART. This trial assessed if patients with sustained low-level HIV-1 viremia on first-line ART benefit from a switch to second-line treatment.Methods and findingsThis multicenter, parallel-group, open-label, superiority, randomized controlled trial enrolled patients on first-line ART containing non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) with two consecutive VLs ≥100 copies/mL, with the second VL between 100-999 copies/mL, from eight clinics in Lesotho. Consenting participants were randomly assigned (1:1), stratified by facility, demographic group, and baseline VL, to either switch to second-line ART (switch group) or continued first-line ART (control group; WHO guidelines). The primary endpoint was viral suppression (<50 copies/mL) at 36 weeks. Analyses were by intention to treat, using logistic regression models, adjusted for demographic group and baseline VL. Between August 1, 2017, and August 7, 2019, 137 individuals were screened, of whom 80 were eligible and randomly assigned to switch (n = 40) or control group (n = 40). The majority of participants were female (54 [68%]) with a median age of 42 y (interquartile range [IQR] 35-51), taking tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/lamivudine/efavirenz (49 [61%]) and on ART for a median of 5.9 y (IQR 3.3-8.6). At 36 weeks, 22/40 (55%) participants in the switch versus 10/40 (25%) in the control group achieved viral suppression (adjusted difference 29%, 95% CI 8%-50%, p = 0.009). The switch group had significantly higher probability of viral suppression across different VL thresholds (<20, <100, <200, <400, and <600 copies/mL) but not for <1,000 copies/mL. Thirty-four (85%) participants in switch group and 21 (53%) in control group experienced at least one adverse event (AE) (p = 0.002). No hospitalization or death or other serious adverse events were observed. Study limitations include a follow-up period too short to observe differences in clinical outcomes, missing values in CD4 cell counts due to national stockout of reagents during the study, and limited generalizability of findings to other than NNRTI-based first-line ART regimens.ConclusionsIn this study, switching to second-line ART among patients with sustained low-level HIV-1 viremia resulted in a higher proportion of participants with viral suppression. These results endorse lowering the threshold for virologic failure in future WHO guidelines.Trial registrationThe trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03088241.

Dataset Information

Simplifying switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy in sub Saharan Africa: predicted effect of using a single viral load to define efavirenz-based first-line failure.

Publications

Simplifying switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy in sub Saharan Africa: predicted effect of using a single viral load to define efavirenz-based first-line failure.

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