Dataset Information

A simple model to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus from 8 to 20 weeks of gestation in Chinese women.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with adverse perinatal outcomes. Screening for GDM and applying adequate interventions may reduce the risk of adverse outcomes. However, the diagnosis of GDM depends largely on tests performed in late second trimester. The aim of the present study was to bulid a simple model to predict GDM in early pregnancy in Chinese women using biochemical markers and machine learning algorithm.

Methods

Data on a total of 4771 pregnant women in early gestation were used to fit the GDM risk-prediction model. Predictive maternal factors were selected through Bayesian adaptive sampling. Selected maternal factors were incorporated into a multivariate Bayesian logistic regression using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess discrimination.

Results

The prevalence of GDM was 12.8%. From 8th to 20th week of gestation fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels decreased slightly and triglyceride (TG) levels increased slightly. These levels were correlated with those of other lipid metabolites. The risk of GDM could be predicted with maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), FPG and TG with a predictive accuracy of 0.64 and an AUC of 0.766 (95% CI 0.731, 0.801).

Conclusions

This GDM prediction model is simple and potentially applicable in Chinese women. Further validation is necessary.

SUBMITTER: Zheng T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6642502 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A simple model to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus from 8 to 20 weeks of gestation in Chinese women.

Zheng Tao T Ye Weiping W Wang Xipeng X Li Xiaoyong X Zhang Jun J Little Julian J Zhou Lixia L Zhang Lin L

BMC pregnancy and childbirth 20190719 1

<h4>Background</h4>Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with adverse perinatal outcomes. Screening for GDM and applying adequate interventions may reduce the risk of adverse outcomes. However, the diagnosis of GDM depends largely on tests performed in late second trimester. The aim of the present study was to bulid a simple model to predict GDM in early pregnancy in Chinese women using biochemical markers and machine learning algorithm.<h4>Methods</h4>Data on a total of 4771 pregnan ...[more]

PMID: 31324151

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Project description:ObjectivesThe aim of this pilot study was to determine the serum concentration of heparan sulfate, hyaluronan, chondroitin sulfate and syndecan-1 and if these serum concentrations can be used to identify women at 20 weeks' gestation who later develop gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).DesignNested case-control study from Auckland, New Zealand participants in the prospective cohort Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints study.SettingAuckland, New Zealand.Participants20 pregnant women (70% European, 15% Indian, 10% Asian, 5% Pacific Islander) at 20 weeks' gestation without any hypertensive complications who developed GDM by existing New Zealand criteria defined as a fasting glucose ≥5.5 mmol/L and/or 2 hours ≥9.0 mmol/L after a 75 g Oral Glucose Tolerance Test. Women not meeting these criteria were excluded from this study. The patients with GDM were matched with 20 women who had uncomplicated pregnancies and negative screening for GDM and matched for ethnicity, maternal age and BMI.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary measures were the serum concentrations of syndecan-1, heparan sulfate, hyaluronan and chondroitin sulfate determined by quantitative ELISA. There were no secondary outcome measures.ResultsBinary logistic regression was performed to determine if serum concentrations of endothelial glycocalyx layer constituents in women at 20 weeks' gestation would be useful in predicting the subsequent diagnosis of GDM. The model was not statistically significant χ2=12.5, df=8, p=0.13, which indicates that the model was unable to distinguish between pregnant women at 20 weeks' gestation who later developed GDM and those who did not.ConclusionsSerum concentrations of syndecan-1, heparan sulfate, hyaluronan and chondroitin sulfate in pregnant women at 20 weeks' gestation were not associated with later development of GDM. To further explore whether there is any relationship between endothelial glycocalyx constituents and GDM, the next step is to evaluate serum concentrations at the time diagnosis of GDM.

Project description:AIM/BACKGROUND:The prevalence of elderly pregnancy and maternal obesity is increasing worldwide. In old and obese women, metabolic derangement affecting fetal growth might be present earlier than the diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or even before pregnancy. We thus investigated whether GDM diagnosed at 24-28 weeks of gestation had already affected fetal abdominal growth and, if so, whether elderly pregnancy and/or maternal obesity aggravate fetal abdominal obesity. METHODS:We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 7820 singleton pregnant women who had been universally screened using a 50-g glucose challenge test (GCT) at 24-28 weeks of gestation, and underwent a 3-h 100-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) if GCT were ≥140mg/dl. GDM and normal glucose tolerance (NGT) were diagnosed using the Carpenter-Coustan criteria. Fetal abdominal obesity was investigated by assessing the fetal abdominal overgrowth ratios (FAORs) of the ultrasonographically estimated gestational age (GA) of abdominal circumference per actual GA by the last menstruation period, biparietal diameter or femur length, respectively. Fetal abdominal overgrowth was defined as FAOR ≥ 90th percentile. The subjects were divided into four study groups: group 1 (age < 35 years and pre-pregnancy body mass index [BMI] < 25 kg/m2), group 2 (age < 35 years and ≥ 25), group 3 (age ≥ 35 years and BMI < 25), and group 4 (age ≥ 35 years and ≥ 25). RESULTS:The overall prevalence of GDM was 5.1%, with old and obese group 4 exhibiting the highest prevalence (22.4%). FAORs were significantly higher in the fetus of those with GDM than in the NGT subjects. But, in the subgroup analysis, only old and nonobese group 3 and old and obese group 4 with GDM exhibited significantly higher FAORs than the NGT subjects. Also, risk of fetal abdominal overgrowth was increased in group 3 and 4 subjects with GDM but not in young and nonobese group 1 GDM. The risk of fetal abdominal overgrowth significantly increased with maternal age >35 years, pre-pregnancy BMI >20kg/m2, and HbA1c >37.7 mmol/mol (5.6%). In multivariate analyses, maternal age and HbA1c were significantly associated with FAORs. CONCLUSION:GDM diagnosed at 24-28 weeks of gestation already affected fetal abdominal obesity in older and/or obese women, but not in younger and nonobese women. Our data suggest that selective screening and appropriate intervention of GDM earlier than 24-28 weeks of gestation might be necessary for high-risk old and/or obese women.

Dataset Information

A simple model to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus from 8 to 20 weeks of gestation in Chinese women.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A simple model to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus from 8 to 20 weeks of gestation in Chinese women.

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