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Reducing Malaria Mortality at the Lowest Budget: An Optimization Tool for Selecting Malaria Preventative Interventions Applied to Ghana.

ABSTRACT: Background. Preventative malaria interventions include long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). The RTS,S vaccine candidate is now also approved for pilot introduction. This analysis estimates the optimal approach when combining current interventions with the vaccine to reduce under-five malaria mortality in Ghana at the lowest cost. Methods. A vector model was combined with a static human cohort model, using country-specific unit costs. Current coverage of each intervention was used as baseline. The base-case vaccine price was US$5/dose, with US$2 or US$10 tested in sensitivity analysis. Model simulations used a goal for extra mortality reduction in children aged <5 years, and identified the optimal combination of interventions to reach that goal at the lowest cost. The time horizon was 5 years. Results. The optimal sequence of investments would be the following: (1) introduce RTS,S; (2) introduce SMC; (3) increase LLINs and IRS concurrently. RTS,S introduction was associated with mortality reduction of 16% for a budget increase of US$15.6 million. Adding SMC with a partial coverage of 4% further reduced mortality by 1% at an additional budget of US$1.4 million. Subsequently scaling-up IRS, LLINs, and SMC at their maximum achievable coverage further reduced mortality by 82% (total reduction 98%) at an additional budget of US$474 million. At an RTS,S price of US$10/dose, SMC was first in the optimal sequence. A lower RTS,S price maintained the sequence but reduced the budget need. Conclusions. In Ghana, RTS,S introduction in addition to the existing measures would be the optimal first step for reducing under-five malaria mortality at the lowest cost, followed by SMC in relevant areas, and then further scaling-up of IRS and LLINs.

SUBMITTER: Sauboin C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6659186 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reducing Malaria Mortality at the Lowest Budget: An Optimization Tool for Selecting Malaria Preventative Interventions Applied to Ghana.

Sauboin Christophe C Van Vlaenderen Ilse I Van Bellinghen Laure-Anne LA Standaert Baudouin B

MDM policy & practice 20190725 2

<i>Background</i>. Preventative malaria interventions include long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). The RTS,S vaccine candidate is now also approved for pilot introduction. This analysis estimates the optimal approach when combining current interventions with the vaccine to reduce under-five malaria mortality in Ghana at the lowest cost. <i>Methods</i>. A vector model was combined with a static human cohort model, usin ...[more]

PMID: 31384668

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Project description:BackgroundWith the challenges that dengue fever (DF) presents to healthcare systems and societies, public health officials must determine where best to allocate scarce resources and restricted budgets. Constrained optimization (CO) helps to address some of the acknowledged limitations of conventional health economic analyses and has typically been used to identify the optimal allocation of resources across interventions subject to a variety of constraints.MethodsA dynamic transmission model was developed to predict the number of dengue cases in Thailand at steady state. A CO was then applied to identify the optimal combination of interventions (release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes and paediatric vaccination) within the constraints of a fixed budget, set no higher than cost estimates of the current vector control programme, to minimize the number of dengue cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Epidemiological, cost, and effectiveness data were informed by national data and the research literature. The time horizon was 10 years. Scenario analyses examined different disease management and intervention costs, budget constraints, vaccine efficacy, and optimization time horizon.ResultsUnder base-case budget constraints, the optimal coverage of the two interventions to minimize dengue incidence was predicted to be nearly equal (Wolbachia 50%; paediatric vaccination 49%) with corresponding coverages under lower bound (Wolbachia 54%; paediatric vaccination 10%) and upper bound (Wolbachia 67%; paediatric vaccination 100%) budget ceilings. Scenario analyses indicated that the most impactful situations related to the costs of Wolbachia and paediatric vaccination with decreases/ increases in costs of interventions demonstrating a direct correlation with coverage (increases/ decreases) of the respective control strategies under examination.ConclusionsDetermining the best investment strategy for dengue control requires the identification of the optimal mix of interventions to implement in order to maximize public health outcomes, often under fixed budget constraints. A CO model was developed with the objective of minimizing dengue cases (and DALYs lost) over a 10-year time horizon, within the constraints of the estimated budgets for vector control in the absence of vaccination and Wolbachia. The model provides a tool for developing estimates of optimal coverage of combined dengue control strategies that minimize dengue burden at the lowest budget.

Project description:BACKGROUND:To improve the uptake of research into practice, knowledge translation frameworks recommend tailoring implementation strategies to address practice barriers. This study reports our experience pairing the Theoretical Domains Framework with information from multiple stakeholder groups to co-develop practice-informed strategies for improving the implementation of an evidence-based outcome measurement tool across a large community health system for preschoolers with communication impairments. METHODS:Concept mapping was used to identify strategies for improving implementation of the Focus on the Outcomes of Communication Under Six (FOCUS) in Ontario Canada's Preschool Speech and Language Program. This work was done in five stages. First, we interviewed 37 speech-language pathologists (clinicians) who identified 90 unique strategies to resolve practice barriers to FOCUS implementation. Second, clinicians (n?=?34), policy-makers (n?=?3), and members of the FOCUS research team (n?=?6) sorted and rated the strategies by importance and feasibility. Third, stakeholders' sorting data were analyzed to generate a two-dimensional concept map. Based on the rating data from stakeholders, we prioritized a list of strategies that were rated as highly important and highly feasible, and summarized the practice barriers addressed by each of the prioritized strategies. Fourth, we validated these findings with stakeholders via an online survey. Fifth, the mechanisms of action of the prioritized list of strategies were considered based on available evidence from the Theoretical Domains Framework and associated behavior change literature. RESULTS:Stakeholders categorized the 90 unique implementation strategies into a six-cluster concept map. Based on stakeholders' ratings, a list of 14 implementation strategies were prioritized. These implementation strategies were reported to resolve barriers within the environmental context and resources and beliefs about consequences domains of the Theoretical Domains Framework. All but one of the prioritized strategies have a demonstrated link in resolving existing barriers according to the behavioral change literature. CONCLUSIONS:Our study contributes to a growing literature that demonstrates the process of tailoring implementation strategies to specific barriers. Practical drawbacks and benefits of using concept mapping as a way to engage stakeholders in implementation research are discussed.

Project description:BackgroundThis paper investigates the impact of malaria preventive interventions in Ghana and the prospects of achieving programme goals using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones of the country.MethodsUsing data from the District Health Information Management System of the Ghana Health Service from 2008 to 2017, and historical intervention coverage levels, ordinary non-linear differential equations models were developed. These models incorporated transitions amongst various disease compartments for the three main ecological zones in Ghana. The Approximate Bayesian Computational sampling approach, with a distance based rejection criteria, was adopted for calibration. A leave-one-out approach was used to validate model parameters and the most sensitive parameters were evaluated using a multivariate regression analysis. The impact of insecticide-treated bed nets and their usage, and indoor residual spraying, as well as their protective efficacy on the incidence of malaria, was simulated at various levels of coverage and protective effectiveness in each ecological zone to investigate the prospects of achieving goals of the Ghana malaria control strategy for 2014-2020.ResultsIncreasing the coverage levels of both long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying activities, without a corresponding increase in their recommended utilization, does not impact highly on averting predicted incidence of malaria. Improving proper usage of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets could lead to substantial reductions in the predicted incidence of malaria. Similar results were obtained with indoor residual spraying across all ecological zones of Ghana.ConclusionsProjected goals set in the national strategic plan for malaria control 2014-2020, as well as World Health Organization targets for malaria pre-elimination by 2030, are only likely to be achieved if a substantial improvement in treated bed net usage is achieved, coupled with targeted deployment of indoor residual spraying with high community acceptability and efficacy.

Project description:IntroductionEswatini achieved a 44% decrease in new HIV infections from 2014 to 2019 through substantial scale-up of testing and treatment. However, it still has one of the highest rates of HIV incidence in the world, with 14 infections per 1,000 adults 15-49 years estimated for 2017. The Government of Eswatini has called for an 85% reduction in new infections by 2023 over 2017 levels. To make further progress towards this target and to achieve maximum health gains, this study aims to model optimized investments of available HIV resources.MethodsThe Optima HIV model was applied to estimate the impact of efficiency strategies to accelerate prevention of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. We estimated the number of infections and deaths that could be prevented by optimizing HIV investments. We optimize across HIV programs, then across service delivery modalities for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral refill, as well as switching to a lower cost antiretroviral regimen.FindingsUnder an optimized budget, prioritising HIV testing for the general population followed by key preventative interventions may result in approximately 1,000 more new infections (2% more) being averted by 2023. More infections could be averted with further optimization between service delivery modalities across the HIV cascade. Scaling-up index and self-testing could lead to 100,000 more people getting tested for HIV (25% more tests) with the same budget. By prioritizing Fast-Track, community-based, and facility-based antiretroviral refill options, an estimated 30,000 more people could receive treatment, 17% more than baseline or US$5.5 million could be saved, 4% of the total budget. Finally, switching non-pregnant HIV-positive adults to a Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy regimen and concentrating delivery of VMMC to existing fixed facilities over mobile clinics, US$4.5 million (7% of total budget) and US$6.6 million (10% of total budget) could be saved, respectively.SignificanceWith a relatively short five-year timeframe, even under a substantially increased and optimized budget, Eswatini is unlikely to reach their ambitious national prevention target by 2023. However, by optimizing investment of the same budget towards highly cost-effective VMMC, testing, and treatment modalities, further reductions in HIV incidence and cost savings could be realized.

Project description:BackgroundApproximately one million stillbirths occur annually during labour; most of these stillbirths occur in low and middle-income countries and are associated with absent, inadequate, or delayed obstetric care. The low proportion of intrapartum stillbirths in high-income countries suggests that intrapartum stillbirths are largely preventable with quality intrapartum care, including prompt recognition and management of intrapartum complications. The evidence for impact of intrapartum interventions on stillbirth and perinatal mortality outcomes has not yet been systematically examined.MethodsWe undertook a systematic review of the published literature, searching PubMed and the Cochrane Library, of trials and reviews (N = 230) that reported stillbirth or perinatal mortality outcomes for eight interventions delivered during labour. Where eligible randomised controlled trials had been published after the most recent Cochrane review on any given intervention, we incorporated these new trial findings into a new meta-analysis with the Cochrane included studies.ResultsWe found a paucity of studies reporting statistically significant evidence of impact on perinatal mortality, especially on stillbirths. Available evidence suggests that operative delivery, especially Caesarean section, contributes to decreased stillbirth rates. Induction of labour rather than expectant management in post-term pregnancies showed strong evidence of impact, though there was not enough evidence to suggest superior safety for the fetus of any given drug or drugs for induction of labour. Planned Caesarean section for term breech presentation has been shown in a large randomised trial to reduce stillbirths, but the feasibility and consequences of implementing this intervention routinely in low-/middle-income countries add caveats to recommending its use. Magnesium sulphate for pre-eclampsia and eclampsia is effective in preventing eclamptic seizures, but studies have not demonstrated impact on perinatal mortality. There was limited evidence of impact for maternal hyperoxygenation, and concerns remain about maternal safety. Transcervical amnioinfusion for meconium staining appears promising for low/middle income-country application according to the findings of many small studies, but a large randomised trial of the intervention had no significant impact on perinatal mortality, suggesting that further studies are needed.ConclusionAlthough the global appeal to prioritise access to emergency obstetric care, especially vacuum extraction and Caesarean section, rests largely on observational and population-based data, these interventions are clearly life-saving in many cases of fetal compromise. Safe, comprehensive essential and emergency obstetric care is particularly needed, and can make the greatest impact on stillbirth rates, in low-resource settings. Other advanced interventions such as amnioinfusion and hyperoxygenation may reduce perinatal mortality, but concerns about safety and effectiveness require further study before they can be routinely included in programs.

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Reducing Malaria Mortality at the Lowest Budget: An Optimization Tool for Selecting Malaria Preventative Interventions Applied to Ghana.

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Reducing Malaria Mortality at the Lowest Budget: An Optimization Tool for Selecting Malaria Preventative Interventions Applied to Ghana.

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