Dataset Information

Estimates of past and future time trends in age-specific breast cancer incidence among women in Karachi, Pakistan: 2004-2025.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The current demographic trends indicate that breast cancer will pose an even greater public health concern in future for Pakistan. Details on the incidence, disease severity and mortality in respect of breast cancer are limited and without such data, therefore, future health policies or systems in respect of this disease cannot be strategically planned or implemented. The aim of this study was to examine past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2004-2015), and to estimate the future volume of breast cancer cases in Karachi through the year 2025.

Methods

Two statistical methods, namely the functional time series models and the log-linear regression model were used; additionally, their real forecasting efficacy in epidemic time series was also evaluated.

Results

In the past, women aged 60-64?years had the highest overall breast cancer incidence rates, while from 2016 to 2025, large increases in breast cancer rates among women aged 50 to 64?years are expected. The total projected breast cancer incidence will increase by approximately 23.1% in 2020 to 60.7% in 2025. Cases of breast cancer diagnosed in younger women, aged 30-34?years, will increase from 70.7 to 130.6% in 2020 and 2025 relative to 2015.

Conclusions

The breast cancer incidence appeared to have been rising more rapidly among post-menopausal women (aged 55 to 59), while a stable increase in incidence in the youngest age group (15-29?years) of women is expected. The results also infer an expected increase in incidence cases of breast cancer among middle aged women in Karachi, Pakistan. An increase in the number of incident cases of cancer has implications for understanding the health-care needs of growing population and the subsequent demands on health-care system.

SUBMITTER: Zaheer S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6659231 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Estimates of past and future time trends in age-specific breast cancer incidence among women in Karachi, Pakistan: 2004-2025.

Zaheer Sidra S Shah Nadia N Maqbool Syed Amir SA Soomro Noor Muhammad NM

BMC public health 20190725 1

<h4>Background</h4>The current demographic trends indicate that breast cancer will pose an even greater public health concern in future for Pakistan. Details on the incidence, disease severity and mortality in respect of breast cancer are limited and without such data, therefore, future health policies or systems in respect of this disease cannot be strategically planned or implemented. The aim of this study was to examine past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2004-2015), an ...[more]

PMID: 31345204

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Project description:Reptiles are one of the most popular exotic pets in the world, with over a third of all described species currently being traded. However, the most commonly available reptiles are typically non-threatened, captive-bred, and/or domestically obtained, which means they are also largely unregulated and unmonitored, resulting in a large portion of the reptile pet trade remaining unknown. In this study, the past, current, and future trends of the most popular reptiles in the pet trade were examined. Google Trends was used to determine the global popularity of the most popular pets from 2004 to 2020 and compared to the results from an online survey sent to individuals involved in the reptile trade. The most popular pets from the previous five years were also compared globally across regions and countries. The results determined that the most popular reptile species during the last decade is by far bearded dragons, followed by ball pythons and leopard geckos. Although the survey results were similar when asked what the top reptiles were, most respondents named ball pythons as the most popular reptile. However, when asked what reptiles had lost the most popularity during the previous decade, the survey respondents named green iguanas, Burmese pythons, chameleons, red-eared sliders, and green anoles, concurring with what was found with Google Trends. The reptiles thought to be more popular in the upcoming decade by the survey participants were blue-tongued skinks, tegus, uromastyx, crested geckos, and ball pythons-most of which did indeed show an increase in popularity during the last decade, as indicated with Google Trends. The results from Google Trends demonstrated that ball pythons and crested geckos have increased their popularity more than any other reptile in the last two decades. Reptile popularity also differed between countries, with bearded dragons the most popular reptile in Australia, Western Europe, the U.S., and Canada. Leopard geckos were the most popular reptile in Italy and Turkey, and ball pythons were the reptile of choice in Mexico, Indonesia, and India. The general finding of this study is that the reptiles declining in popularity were mostly wild-caught or restricted due to regulations, while current and future species were captive-bred and available in many varieties or morphs. The most popular species were also docile, medium-sized, and easy to handle, with relatively simple care requirements. This study demonstrates that Google Trends can be a useful tool for determining relative popularity among reptiles, or any other pet group, with results closely mirroring those obtained through direct surveying of people involved in the pet trade. However, unlike surveys, this analysis is quick, quantifiable, and can show what is popular and in-demand not only at the global level but at much finer scales. Thus, Google Trends can be a valuable tool in many research applications, especially in topics that may otherwise be difficult to monitor and quantify.

Dataset Information

Estimates of past and future time trends in age-specific breast cancer incidence among women in Karachi, Pakistan: 2004-2025.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Estimates of past and future time trends in age-specific breast cancer incidence among women in Karachi, Pakistan: 2004-2025.

Similar Datasets

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