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Geostatistical analysis of Malawi's changing malaria transmission from 2010 to 2017.

ABSTRACT: Background: The prevalence of malaria infection in time and space provides important information on the likely sub-national epidemiology of malaria burdens and how this has changed following intervention. Model-based geostatitics (MBG) allow national malaria control programmes to leverage multiple data sources to provide predictions of malaria prevalance by district over time. These methods are used to explore the possible changes in malaria prevalance in Malawi from 2010 to 2017. Methods: Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence ( PfPR) surveys undertaken in Malawi between 2000 and 2017 were assembled. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict annual malaria risk for children aged 2-10 years ( PfPR _2-10) at 1×1 km spatial resolutions. Parameter estimation was carried out using the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. Population-adjusted prevalence and populations at risk by district were calculated for 2010 and 2017 to inform malaria control program priority setting. Results: 2,237 surveys at 1,834 communities undertaken between 2000 and 2017 were identified, geo-coded and used within the MBG framework to predict district malaria prevalence properties for 2010 and 2017. Nationally, there was a 47.2% reduction in the mean modelled PfPR _2-10 from 29.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 26.6 to 32.3%) in 2010 to 15.2% (95% CI 13.3 to 18.0%) in 2017. Declining prevalence was not equal across the country, 25 of 27 districts showed a substantial decline ranging from a 3.3% reduction to 79% reduction. By 2017, 16% of Malawi's population still lived in areas that support PfPR _2-10 ≥ 25%. Conclusions: Malawi has made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of malaria over the last seven years. However, Malawi remains in meso-endemic malaria transmission risk. To sustain the gains made and continue reducing the transmission further, universal control interventions need to be maintained at a national level.

SUBMITTER: Chipeta MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6662685 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundReports of declining incidence of malaria disease burden across several countries in Africa suggest that the epidemiology of malaria across the continent is in transition. Whether this transition is directly related to the scaling of intervention coverage remains a moot point.MethodsPaediatric admission data from eight Kenyan hospitals and their catchments have been assembled across two three-year time periods: September 2003 to August 2006 (pre-scaled intervention) and September 2006 to August 2009 (post-scaled intervention). Interrupted time series (ITS) models were developed adjusting for variations in rainfall and hospital use by surrounding communities to show changes in malaria hospitalization over the two periods. The temporal changes in factors that might explain changes in disease incidence were examined sequentially for each hospital setting, compared between hospital settings and ranked according to plausible explanatory factors.ResultsIn six out of eight sites there was a decline in Malaria admission rates with declines between 18% and 69%. At two sites malaria admissions rates increased by 55% and 35%. Results from the ITS models indicate that before scaled intervention in September 2006, there was a significant month-to-month decline in the mean malaria admission rates at four hospitals (trend P < 0.05). At the point of scaled intervention, the estimated mean admission rates for malaria was significantly less at four sites compared to the pre-scaled period baseline. Following scaled intervention there was a significant change in the month-to-month trend in the mean malaria admission rates in some but not all of the sites. Plausibility assessment of possible drivers of change pre- versus post-scaled intervention showed inconsistent patterns however, allowing for the increase in rainfall in the second period, there is a suggestion that starting transmission intensity and the scale of change in ITN coverage might explain some but not all of the variation in effect size. At most sites where declines between observation periods were documented admission rates were changing before free mass ITN distribution and prior to the implementation of ACT across Kenya.ConclusionThis study provides evidence of significant within and between location heterogeneity in temporal trends of malaria disease burden. Plausible drivers for changing disease incidence suggest a complex combination of mechanisms, not easily measured retrospectively.

Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies in Dakar have highlighted the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of Anopheles gambiae s.l. biting rates. In order to improve the knowledge of the determinants of malaria transmission in this city, the present study reports the results of an extensive entomological survey that was conducted in 45 areas in Dakar from 2007 to 2010.MethodsWater collections were monitored for the presence of anopheline larvae. Adult mosquitoes were sampled by human landing collection. Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoïte (CSP) protein indexes were measured by ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay), and the entomological inoculation rates were calculated.ResultsThe presence of anopheline larvae were recorded in 1,015 out of 2,683 observations made from 325 water collections. A water pH of equal to or above 8.0, a water temperature that was equal to or above 30°C, the absence of larvivorous fishes, the wet season, the presence of surface vegetation, the persistence of water and location in a slightly urbanised area were significantly associated with the presence of anopheline larvae and/or with a higher density of anopheline larvae. Most of the larval habitats were observed in public areas, i.e., freely accessible. A total of 496,310 adult mosquitoes were caught during 3096 person-nights, and 44967 of these specimens were identified as An.gambiae s.l. The mean An. gambiae s.l. human-biting rate ranged from 0.1 to 248.9 bites per person per night during the rainy season. Anopheles arabiensis (93.14%), Anopheles melas (6.83%) and An. gambiae s.s. M form (0.03%) were the three members of the An. gambiae complex. Fifty-two An. arabiensis and two An. melas specimens were CSP-positive, and the annual CSP index was 0.64% in 2007, 0.09% in 2008-2009 and 0.12% in 2009-2010. In the studied areas, the average EIR ranged from 0 to 17.6 infected bites per person during the entire transmission season.ConclusionThe spatial and temporal heterogeneity of An. gambiae s.l. larval density, adult human-biting rate (HBR) and malaria transmission in Dakar has been confirmed, and the environmental factors associated with this heterogeneity have been identified. These results pave the way for the creation of malaria risk maps and for a focused anti-vectorial control strategy.

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Malaria epidemiological and immunological data suggest that parasite tolerance wanes in the absence of continuous exposure to the parasite, potentially enhancing pathogenesis. The expansion of control interventions and elimination campaigns raises the necessity to better understand the host factors leading to susceptibility or tolerance that are affected by rapid changes in malaria transmission intensity (MTI). Mediators of cellular immune responses are responsible for the symptoms and pathological alterations during disease and are expected to change rapidly upon malaria exposure or cessation. METHODS:The plasma concentrations of 30 cytokine, chemokine and growth factors in individuals of all ages from a malaria endemic area of southern Mozambique were compared between 2 years of different MTI: 2010 (lower, n = 234) and 2013 (higher, n = 143). The effect of the year on the correlations between cytokines, chemokines and growth factors and IgGs to Plasmodium falciparum (markers of exposure) was explored. The effects of age, sex, neighbourhood and parasitaemia on analyte levels and their interactions with year were also assessed. RESULTS:An inverse correlation of several cellular immune mediators with malarial antibodies in 2013, and a lack of correlation or even a positive correlation in 2010 were observed. Most cytokines, chemokines and growth factors, regardless of their immune function, had higher concentrations in 2010 compared with 2013 in P. falciparum-infected and uninfected subjects. Age and neighbourhood showed an effect on analyte concentrations. CONCLUSIONS:The results show a different regulation of the cellular immune response in 2010 vs 2013 which could be related to a loss of immune-tolerance after a decline in MTI in 2010 and previous years, and a rapid re-establishment of tolerance as a consequence of more continuous exposure as MTI began increasing in 2012. Cellular immune mediators warrant further investigation as possible surrogates of MTI-associated host susceptibility or tolerance.

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Geostatistical analysis of Malawi's changing malaria transmission from 2010 to 2017.

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