Dataset Information

Multi-study validation of data-driven disease progression models to characterize evolution of biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the sequence of biological and clinical events along the course of Alzheimer's disease provides insights into dementia pathophysiology and can help participant selection in clinical trials. Our objective is to train two data-driven computational models for sequencing these events, the Event Based Model (EBM) and discriminative-EBM (DEBM), on the basis of well-characterized research data, then validate the trained models on subjects from clinical cohorts characterized by less-structured data-acquisition protocols. Seven independent data cohorts were considered totalling 2389 cognitively normal (CN), 1424 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 743 Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set was used as training set for the constriction of disease models while a collection of multi-centric data cohorts was used as test set for validation. Cross-sectional information related to clinical, cognitive, imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers was used. Event sequences obtained with EBM and DEBM showed differences in the ordering of single biomarkers but according to both the first biomarkers to become abnormal were those related to CSF, followed by cognitive scores, while structural imaging showed significant volumetric decreases at later stages of the disease progression. Staging of test set subjects based on sequences obtained with both models showed good linear correlation with the Mini Mental State Examination score (R²_EBM = 0.866; R²_DEBM = 0.906). In discriminant analyses, significant differences (p-value ≤ 0.05) between the staging of subjects from training and test sets were observed in both models. No significant difference between the staging of subjects from the training and test was observed (p-value > 0.05) when considering a subset composed by 562 subjects for which all biomarker families (cognitive, imaging and CSF) are available. Event sequence obtained with DEBM recapitulates the heuristic models in a data-driven fashion and is clinically plausible. We demonstrated inter-cohort transferability of two disease progression models and their robustness in detecting AD phases. This is an important step towards the adoption of data-driven statistical models into clinical domain.

SUBMITTER: Archetti D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6675943 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:See Li and Donohue (doi:10.1093/brain/awy089) for a scientific commentary on this article.Dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease is widely hoped to hold the key to developing interventions for sporadic late onset Alzheimer's disease. We use emerging techniques in generative data-driven disease progression modelling to characterize dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression with unprecedented resolution, and without relying upon familial estimates of years until symptom onset. We retrospectively analysed biomarker data from the sixth data freeze of the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network observational study, including measures of amyloid proteins and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain, regional brain volumes and cortical thicknesses, brain glucose hypometabolism, and cognitive performance from the Mini-Mental State Examination (all adjusted for age, years of education, sex, and head size, as appropriate). Data included 338 participants with known mutation status (211 mutation carriers in three subtypes: 163 PSEN1, 17 PSEN2, and 31 APP) and a baseline visit (age 19-66; up to four visits each, 1.1 ± 1.9 years in duration; spanning 30 years before, to 21 years after, parental age of symptom onset). We used an event-based model to estimate sequences of biomarker changes from baseline data across disease subtypes (mutation groups), and a differential equation model to estimate biomarker trajectories from longitudinal data (up to 66 mutation carriers, all subtypes combined). The two models concur that biomarker abnormality proceeds as follows: amyloid deposition in cortical then subcortical regions (∼24 ± 11 years before onset); phosphorylated tau (17 ± 8 years), tau and amyloid-β changes in cerebrospinal fluid; neurodegeneration first in the putamen and nucleus accumbens (up to 6 ± 2 years); then cognitive decline (7 ± 6 years), cerebral hypometabolism (4 ± 4 years), and further regional neurodegeneration. Our models predicted symptom onset more accurately than predictions that used familial estimates: root mean squared error of 1.35 years versus 5.54 years. The models reveal hidden detail on dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression, as well as providing data-driven systems for fine-grained patient staging and prediction of symptom onset with great potential utility in clinical trials.

Project description:Current methods for measuring the chronic rates of cognitive decline and degeneration in Alzheimer's disease rely on the sensitivity of longitudinal neuropsychological batteries and clinical neuroimaging, particularly structural magnetic resonance imaging of brain atrophy, either at a global or regional scale. There is particular interest in approaches predictive of future disease progression and clinical outcomes using a single time point. If successful, such approaches could have great impact on differential diagnosis, therapeutic treatment and clinical trial inclusion. Unfortunately, it has proven quite challenging to accurately predict clinical and degeneration progression rates from baseline data. Specifically, a key limitation of the previously proposed approaches for disease progression based on the brain atrophy measures has been the limited incorporation of the knowledge from disease pathology progression models, which suggest a prion-like spread of disease pathology and hence the neurodegeneration. Here, we present a new metric for disease progression rate in Alzheimer that uses only MRI-derived atrophy data yet is able to infer the underlying rate of pathology transmission. This is enabled by imposing a spread process driven by the brain networks using a Network Diffusion Model. We first fit this model to each patient's longitudinal brain atrophy data defined on a brain network structure to estimate a patient-specific rate of pathology diffusion, called the pathology progression rate. Using machine learning algorithms, we then build a baseline data model and tested this rate metric on data from longitudinal Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study including 810 subjects. Our measure of disease progression differed significantly across diagnostic groups as well as between groups with different genetic risk factors. Remarkably, hierarchical clustering revealed 3 distinct clusters based on CSF profiles with >90% accuracy. These pathological clusters exhibit progressive atrophy and clinical impairments that correspond to the proposed rate measure. We demonstrate that a subject's degeneration speed can be best predicted from baseline neuroimaging volumetrics and fluid biomarkers for subjects in the middle of their degenerative course, which may be a practical, inexpensive screening tool for future prognostic applications.

Project description:BackgroundUsing surrogate biomarkers for disease progression as endpoints in neuroprotective clinical trials may help differentiate symptomatic effects of potential neuroprotective agents from true slowing of the neurodegenerative process. A systematic review was undertaken to determine what biomarkers for disease progression in Alzheimer's disease exist and how well they perform.MethodsMEDLINE and Embase (1950-2011) were searched using five search strategies. Abstracts were assessed to identify papers meriting review in full. Studies of participants with probable Alzheimer's disease diagnosed by formal criteria were included. We made no restriction on age, disease duration, or drug treatment. We only included studies with a longitudinal design, in which the putative biomarker and clinical measure were both measured at least twice, as this is the only appropriate study design to use when developing a disease progression biomarker. We included studies which attempted to draw associations between the changes over time in the biomarker used to investigate disease progression and a clinical measure of disease progression.ResultsFifty-nine studies were finally included. The commonest biomarker modality examined was brain MRI (17/59, 29% of included studies). Median follow-up in included studies was only 1.0 (IQR 0.8-1.7) year and most studies only measured the putative biomarker and clinical measure twice. Included studies were generally of poor quality with small numbers of participants (median 31 (IQR 17 to 64)), applied excessively restrictive study entry criteria, had flawed methodologies and conducted overly simplistic statistical analyses without adjusting for confounding factors.ConclusionsWe found insufficient evidence to recommend the use of any biomarker as an outcome measure for disease progression in Alzheimer's disease trials. However, further investigation into the efficacy of using MRI measurements of ventricular volume and whole brain volume appeared to be merited. A provisional 'roadmap' to improve the quality of future disease progression biomarker studies is presented.

Project description:ObjectiveWe analyzed the longitudinal profile of Alzheimer's disease (AD) cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers in early Parkinson's disease (PD) compared with healthy controls (HCs) and tested baseline CSF biomarkers for prediction of clinical decline in PD.MethodsAmyloid-β 1 to 42 (Aβ42 ), total tau (t-tau) and phosphorylated tau (p-tau) at the threonine 181 position were measured using the high-precision Roche Elecsys electrochemiluminescence immunoassay in all available CSF samples from longitudinally studied patients with PD (n = 416) and HCs (n = 192) followed for up to 3 years in the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). Longitudinal CSF and clinical data were analyzed with linear-mixed effects models.ResultsWe found patients with PD had lower CSF t-tau (median = 157.7 pg/mL; range = 80.9-467.0); p-tau (median = 13.4 pg/mL; range = 8.0-40.1), and Aβ42 (median = 846.2 pg/mL; range = 238.8-3,707.0) than HCs at baseline (CSF t-tau median = 173.5 pg/mL; range = 82.0-580.8; p-tau median = 15.4 pg/mL; range = 8.1-73.6; and Aβ42 median = 926.5 pg/mL; range = 239.1-3,297.0; p < 0.05-0.001) and a moderate-to-strong correlation among these biomarkers in both patients with PD and HCs (Rho = 0.50-0.97; p < 0.001). Of the patients with PD, 31.5% had pathologically low levels of CSF Aβ42 at baseline and these patients with PD had lower p-tau levels (median = 10.8 pg/mL; range = 8.0-32.8) compared with 27.7% of HCs with pathologically low CSF Aβ42 (CSF p-tau median = 12.8 pg/mL; range 8.2-73.6; p < 0.03). In longitudinal CSF analysis, we found patients with PD had greater decline in CSF Aβ42 (mean difference = -41.83 pg/mL; p = 0.03) and CSF p-tau (mean difference = -0.38 pg/mL; p = 0.03) at year 3 compared with HCs. Baseline CSF Aβ42 values predicted small but measurable decline on cognitive, autonomic, and motor function in early PD.InterpretationOur data suggest baseline CSF AD biomarkers may have prognostic value in early PD and that the dynamic change of these markers, although modest over a 3-year period, suggest biomarker profiles in PD may deviate from healthy aging. ANN NEUROL 2020;88:574-587.

Dataset Information

Multi-study validation of data-driven disease progression models to characterize evolution of biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets