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The urgent need for more potent antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries to achieve UNAIDS 90-90-90 and complete eradication of AIDS by 2030.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Over 90% of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected individuals will be on treatment by 2020 under UNAIDS 90-90-90 global targets. Under World Health Organisation (WHO) "Treat All" approach, this number will be approximately 36.4 million people with over 98% in low-income countries (LICs).

Main body

Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) largely driven by frequently use of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), efavirenz and nevirapine, has been increasing with roll-out of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with 29% annual increase in some LICs countries. PDR has exceeded 10% in most LICs which warrants change of first line regimen to more robust classes under WHO recommendations. If no change in regimens is enforced in LICs, it's estimated that over 16% of total deaths, 9% of new infections, and 8% of total cART costs will be contributed by HIV drug resistance by 2030. Less than optimal adherence, and adverse side effects associated with currently available drug regimens, all pose a great threat to achievement of 90% viral suppression and elimination of AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This calls for urgent introduction of policies that advocate for voluntary and compulsory drug licensing of new more potent drugs which should also emphasize universal access of these drugs to all individuals worldwide.

Conclusions

The achievement of United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS 2020 and 2030 targets in LICs depends on access to active cART with higher genetic barrier to drug resistance, better safety, and tolerability profiles. It's also imperative to strengthen quality service delivery in terms of retention of patients to treatment, support for adherence to cART, patient follow up and adequate drug stocks to help achieve a free AIDS generation.

SUBMITTER: Ndashimye E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6676518 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The urgent need for more potent antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries to achieve UNAIDS 90-90-90 and complete eradication of AIDS by 2030.

Ndashimye Emmanuel E Arts Eric J EJ

Infectious diseases of poverty 20190802 1

<h4>Background</h4>Over 90% of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected individuals will be on treatment by 2020 under UNAIDS 90-90-90 global targets. Under World Health Organisation (WHO) "Treat All" approach, this number will be approximately 36.4 million people with over 98% in low-income countries (LICs).<h4>Main body</h4>Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) largely driven by frequently use of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), efavirenz and nevirapine, has been incre ...[more]

PMID: 31370888

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Project description:BACKGROUND:HIV programmes face challenges achieving high rates of HIV testing and treatment needed to optimise health and to reduce transmission. We used data from the Botswana Combination Prevention Project study survey to assess Botswana's progress toward achieving UNAIDS targets for 2020: 90% of all people living with HIV knowing their status, 90% of these receiving sustained antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of those having virological suppression (90-90-90). METHODS:A population-based sample of individuals was recruited and interviewed in 30 rural and periurban communities from Oct 30, 2013, to Nov 24, 2015, as part of a large, ongoing community-randomised trial designed to assess the effect of a combination prevention package on HIV incidence. A random sample of about 20% of households in each community was selected. Consenting household residents aged 16-64 years who were Botswana citizens or spouses of citizens responded to a questionnaire and had blood drawn for HIV testing in the absence of documentation of positive HIV status. Viral load testing was done in all HIV-infected participants, irrespective of treatment status. We used modified Poisson generalised estimating equations to obtain prevalence ratios, corresponding Huber robust SEs, and 95% Wald CIs to examine associations between individual sociodemographic factors and a binary outcome indicating achievement of the three individual and combined overall 90-90-90 targets. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01965470. FINDINGS:81% of enumerated eligible household members took part in the survey (10% refused and 9% were absent). Among 12?610 participants surveyed, 3596 (29%) were infected with HIV, and 2995 (83·3%, 95% CI 81·4-85·2) of these individuals already knew their HIV status. Among those who knew their HIV status, 2617 (87·4%, 95% CI 85·8-89·0) were receiving ART (95% of those eligible by national guidelines, and 73% of all infected people). Of the 2609 individuals receiving ART with a viral load measurement, 2517 (96·5%, 95% CI 96·0-97·0) had viral load of 400 copies per mL or less. Overall, 70·2% (95% CI 67·5-73·0) of HIV-infected people had virological suppression, close to the UNAIDS target of 73%. INTERPRETATION:UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets are achievable even in resource-constrained settings with high HIV burden. FUNDING:US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Project description:BackgroundUNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets.Methods and findingsWe simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections.ConclusionsThe new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

Project description:BackgroundIn line with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 target, Norway aims for at least 90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) to know their HIV-status. We produced current estimates of the number of PLHIV and undiagnosed population in Norway, overall and for six key subpopulations: Norwegian-born men who have sex with men (MSM), migrant MSM, Norwegian-born heterosexuals, migrant Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)-born heterosexuals, migrant non-SSA-born heterosexuals and people who inject drugs.MethodsWe used the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) HIV Modelling Tool on Norwegian HIV surveillance data through 2018 to estimate incidence, time from infection to diagnosis, PLHIV, and the number and proportion undiagnosed. As surveillance data on CD4 count at diagnosis were not collected in Norway, we ran two models; using default model CD4 assumptions, or a proxy for CD4 distribution based on Danish national surveillance data. We also generated alternative overall PLHIV estimates using the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model, to compare with those obtained from the ECDC tool.ResultsEstimates of the overall number of PLHIV in 2018 using different modelling approaches aligned at approximately 5000. In both ECDC models, the overall number undiagnosed decreased continuously from 2008. The proportion undiagnosed in 2018 was lower using default model CD4 assumptions (7.1% [95%CI: 5.3-8.9%]), than the Danish CD4 proxy (10.2% [8.3-12.1%]). This difference was driven by results for heterosexual migrants. Estimates for Norwegian-born MSM, migrant MSM and Norwegian-born heterosexuals were similar in both models. In these three subpopulations, incidence in 2018 was <?30 new infections, and the number undiagnosed had decreased in recent years. Norwegian-born MSM had the lowest estimated number of undiagnosed infections (45 [30-75], using default CD4 assumptions) and undiagnosed fraction (3.6% [2.4-5.7%], using default CD4 assumptions) in 2018.ConclusionsResults allow cautious confidence in concluding that Norway has achieved the first UNAIDS 90-90-90 target, and clearly highlight the success of prevention strategies among MSM. Estimates for subpopulations strongly influenced by migration remain less clear, and future modelling should appropriately account for all-cause mortality and out-migration, and adjust for time of in-migration.

Project description:ABSTRACT Background: HIV/AIDS programmes and organisations around the world use routinely updated estimates of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets to track progress and prioritise further programme implementation. Any bias in these estimates has the potential to mislead organisations on where gaps exist in HIV testing and treatment programmes. Objective: To measure the extent of undisclosed HIV testing history and its impact on estimating the proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who know their HIV status (the ‘first 90’ of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population-based HIV serological surveillance conducted between 2010 and 2016 and linked, directly observed HIV testing records in Kisesa, Tanzania. Generalised estimating equations logistic regression models were used to detect associations with non-disclosure of HIV testing history adjusting for demographic, behavioural, and clinical characteristics. We compared estimates of the ‘first 90’ using self-reported survey data only and augmented estimates using information from linked records to quantify the absolute and relative impact of undisclosed HIV testing history. Results: Numbers of participants in each of the survey rounds ranged from 7171 to 7981 with an average HIV prevalence of 6.9%. Up to 33% of those who tested HIV-positive and 34% of those who tested HIV-negative did not disclose their HIV testing history. The proportion of PLHIV who reported knowing their status increased from 34% in 2010 to 65% in 2016. Augmented estimates including information from directly observed testing history resulted in an absolute impact of 6.7 percentage points and relative impact of 12.4%. Conclusions: In this population, self-reported testing history in population-based HIV serological surveys under-estimated the percentage of HIV positives that are diagnosed by a relative factor of 12%. Research should be employed in other surveillance systems that benefit from linked data to investigate how bias may vary across settings.

Project description:HIV-infected individuals on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings who do not achieve the last "90" (viral suppression) enter a complex care cascade: enhanced adherence counselling (EAC), repetition of viral load (VL) and switch to second-line ART aiming to achieve resuppression. This study describes the "failure cascade" in patients in Lesotho.Patients aged ?16 years on first-line ART at 10 facilities in rural Lesotho received a first-time VL in June 2014. Those with VL ?80 copies/mL were included in a cohort. The care cascade was assessed at four points: attendance of EAC, result of follow-up VL after EAC, switch to second-line in case of sustained unsuppressed VL and outcome 18 months after the initial unsuppressed VL. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess predictors of being retained in care with viral resuppression at follow-up.Out of 1563 patients who underwent first-time VL, 138 (8.8%) had unsuppressed VL in June 2014. Out of these, 124 (90%) attended EAC and 116 (84%) had follow-up VL (4 died, 2 transferred out, 11 lost, 5 switched to second-line before follow-up VL). Among the 116 with follow-up VL, 36 (31%) achieved resuppression. Out of the 80 with sustained unsuppressed VL, 58 were switched to second-line, the remaining continued first line. At 18 months' follow-up in December 2015, out of the initially 138 with unsuppressed VL, 56 (41%) were in care and virally suppressed, 37 (27%) were in care with unsuppressed VL and the remaining 45 (33%) were lost, dead, transferred to another clinic or without documented VL. Achieving viral resuppression after EAC (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 5.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.14-22.09; p = 0.033) and being switched to second-line in case of sustained viremia after EAC (aOR: 7.17; 1.90-27.04; p = 0.004) were associated with being retained in care and virally suppressed at 18 months of follow-up. Age, gender, education, time on ART and level of VL were not associated.In this study in rural Lesotho, outcomes along the "failure cascade" were poor. To improve outcomes in this vulnerable patient group who fails the last "90", programmes need to focus on timely EAC and switch to second line for cases with continuous viremia despite EAC.

Dataset Information

The urgent need for more potent antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries to achieve UNAIDS 90-90-90 and complete eradication of AIDS by 2030.

Background

Main body

Conclusions

Publications

The urgent need for more potent antiretroviral therapy in low-income countries to achieve UNAIDS 90-90-90 and complete eradication of AIDS by 2030.

Similar Datasets

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