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Clinical Trajectories and Causes of Death in Septic Patients with a Low APACHE II Score.

ABSTRACT: Clinical course and mortality in septic patients with low disease severity remain poorly understood and is worth further investigation. We enrolled septic patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) between 2010 and 2014 with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores of ?15. We sought to determine their clinical trajectories and causes of death, and to analyze risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. A total of 352 patients were included, of whom 89 (25%) did not survive to hospital discharge, at a rate higher than predicted (<21%) by the APACHE II score. Approximately one third (31/89) of non-survivors succumbed to index sepsis; however, more patients (34/89) died of subsequent sepsis. New-onset ICU sepsis developed in 99 (28%) patients and was an independent risk factor for mortality. In addition, septic patients with comorbid malignancy or index infection acquired in the hospital settings were more likely to have in-hospital mortality than those without. In conclusion, septic patients with low APACHE II scores were at a higher mortality risk than expected, and subsequent sepsis rather than index sepsis was the primary cause of death. This study provides insight into unexpected clinical trajectories and outcomes of septic patients with low disease severity at ICU admission and highlights the need for more research and clinical attention in this patient population.

SUBMITTER: Huang CT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6678558 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Clinical Trajectories and Causes of Death in Septic Patients with a Low APACHE II Score.

Huang Chun-Ta CT Ruan Sheng-Yuan SY Tsai Yi-Ju YJ Ku Shih-Chi SC Yu Chong-Jen CJ

Journal of clinical medicine 20190720 7

Clinical course and mortality in septic patients with low disease severity remain poorly understood and is worth further investigation. We enrolled septic patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) between 2010 and 2014 with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores of ≤15. We sought to determine their clinical trajectories and causes of death, and to analyze risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. A total of 352 patients were included, of whom 89 (25 ...[more]

PMID: 31330785

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Project description:BackgroundSeverity scoring systems are inherent to ICU practice for multiple purposes. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) scoring systems are designed for ICU mortality prediction. This study aims to validate APACHE IV in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU.MethodsAll COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU between March 13, 2020, and October 17, 2020, were retrospectively analyzed. APACHE II and APACHE IV scores as well as SOFA scores were calculated within 24 hours after admission. Discrimination for mortality of all three scoring systems was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curves. Youden index was determined for the scoring system with the best discriminative performance. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to assess calibration. All analyses were performed for both the overall population as in a subgroup treated with anti-Xa adjusted dosages of LMWHs.Results116 patients were admitted to our ICU during the study period. 13 were excluded for various reasons, leaving 103 patients in the statistical analysis of the overall population. 57 patients were treated with anti-Xa adjusted prophylactic dosages of LMWH and were supplementary analyzed in a subgroup analysis. APACHE IV had the best discriminative power of the three scoring systems, both in the overall population (APACHE IV ROC AUC 0.67 vs. APACHE II ROC AUC 0.63) as in the subgroup (APACHE IV ROC AUC 0.82 vs. APACHE II ROC AUC 0.7). This model exhibits good calibration. Hosmer-Lemeshow p values for APACHE IV were 0.9234 for the overall population and 0.8017 for the subgroup. Calibration p values of the APACHE II score were 0.1394 and 0.6475 for the overall versus subgroup, respectively.ConclusionsAPACHE IV provided the best discrimination and calibration of the considered scoring systems in critically ill COVID-19 patients, both in the overall group and in the subgroup with anti-Xa adjusted LMWH doses. Only in the subgroup analysis, discriminative abilities of APACHE IV were very good. This trial is registered with NCT04713852.

Project description:BackgroundSeptic shock has a high incidence and mortality rate in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Earlier intravenous fluid resuscitation can significantly improve outcomes in septic patients but easily leads to fluid overload (FO), which is associated with poor clinical outcomes. A single point value of fluid cannot provide enough fluid information. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of fluid balance (FB) latent trajectories on clinical outcomes in septic patients.MethodsPatients were diagnosed with septic shock during the first 48 h, and sequential fluid data for the first 3 days of ICU admission were included. A group-based trajectory model (GBTM) which is designed to identify groups of individuals following similar developmental trajectories was used to identify latent subgroups of individuals following a similar progression of FB. The primary outcomes were hospital mortality, organ dysfunction, major adverse kidney events (MAKE) and severe respiratory adverse events (SRAE). We used multivariable Cox or logistic regression analysis to assess the association between FB trajectories and clinical outcomes.ResultsNine hundred eighty-six patients met the inclusion criteria and were assigned to GBTM analysis, and three latent FB trajectories were detected. 64 (6.5%), 841 (85.3%), and 81 (8.2%) patients were identified to have decreased, low, and high FB, respectively. Compared with low FB, high FB was associated with increased hospital mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-2.17], organ dysfunction [odds ratio (OR) 2.18, 95% CI 1.22-3.42], MAKE (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.04-2.63) and SRAE (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.46-3.71), and decreasing FB was significantly associated with decreased MAKE (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.29-0.79) after adjustment for potential covariates.ConclusionLatent subgroups of septic patients followed a similar FB progression. These latent fluid trajectories were associated with clinical outcomes. The decreasing FB trajectory was associated with a decreased risk of hospital mortality and MAKE.

Dataset Information

Clinical Trajectories and Causes of Death in Septic Patients with a Low APACHE II Score.

Publications

Clinical Trajectories and Causes of Death in Septic Patients with a Low APACHE II Score.

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