Dataset Information

How Initial Prevalence Moderates Network-based Smoking Change: Estimating Contextual Effects with Stochastic Actor-based Models.

ABSTRACT: We use an empirically grounded simulation model to examine how initial smoking prevalence moderates the effectiveness of potential interventions designed to change adolescent smoking behavior. Our model investigates the differences that result when manipulating peer influence and smoker popularity as intervention levers. We demonstrate how a simulation-based approach allows us to estimate outcomes that arise (1) when intervention effects could plausibly alter peer influence and/or smoker popularity effects and (2) across a sample of schools that match the range of initial conditions of smoking prevalence in U.S. schools. We show how these different initial conditions combined with the exact same intervention effects can produce substantially different outcomes-for example, effects that produce smoking declines in some settings can actually increase smoking in others. We explore the form and magnitude of these differences. Our model also provides a template to evaluate the potential effects of alternative intervention scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Adams J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6679597 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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How Initial Prevalence Moderates Network-based Smoking Change: Estimating Contextual Effects with Stochastic Actor-based Models.

Adams Jimi J Schaefer David R DR

Journal of health and social behavior 20160301 1

We use an empirically grounded simulation model to examine how initial smoking prevalence moderates the effectiveness of potential interventions designed to change adolescent smoking behavior. Our model investigates the differences that result when manipulating peer influence and smoker popularity as intervention levers. We demonstrate how a simulation-based approach allows us to estimate outcomes that arise (1) when intervention effects could plausibly alter peer influence and/or smoker popular ...[more]

PMID: 26957133

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Project description:IntroductionAlcohol consumption is a considerable public health problem that is especially harmful to young people. To develop effective prevention programmes targeted at adolescents, it is important to understand the social mechanisms triggering alcohol consumption. Among such mechanisms, peer influence plays an important role. The effects of peer influence are very difficult to evaluate because of the entanglement with social selection, that is, a tendency of people to befriend others with similar behaviour. The recently developed stochastic actor-oriented models (SAOM) approach is designed to disentangle social influence from social selection. The aim of this study is to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies employing SAOM methodology to evaluate the effects of social influence on adolescent drinking behaviour.Methods and analysisIn order to analyse the co-evolution of alcohol consumption and adolescent friendship networks, we will collect articles that use SAOM methodology through systematic electronic searches in Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, The Cochrane Library (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), EBSCOhost (MEDLINE, SocINDEX, Academic Source, ERIC), ProQuest (ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global), PsycINFO (PsycNET), Excerpta Medica database (Embase) and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL). We will collect the literature from academic journals, dissertations/theses, reports and conference materials. Three reviewers will retrieve and independently assess potentially relevant material in terms of whether they comply with prespecified criteria. Subsequently, we will summarise the results of the studies in a systematic review. If a sufficient number of studies can be found, SAOM quantitative results will be extracted and meta-analysed. The project will go from 1 December 2018 to 1 December 2019.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval will not be required as our work is based on published studies. A list of all the studies included in this work will be available for review. We plan dissemination in a peer-reviewed international scientific journal and through conference presentations. Our review will highlight the peer effect of peers in adolescent drinking behaviour and provide guidance for developing effective prevention and intervention programmes. We expect it to be informative for policy and practice, decision-making as well as for further research in public health and sociology of adolescents.Prospero registration numberCRD42019119836.

Project description:ObjectivesTo determine to what extent underlying data published as part of Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) can be used to estimate smoking prevalence within practice populations and local areas and to explore the usefulness of these estimates.DesignCross-sectional, observational study of QOF smoking data. Smoking prevalence in general practice populations and among patients with chronic conditions was estimated by simple manipulation of QOF indicator data. Agreement between estimates from the integrated household survey (IHS) and aggregated QOF-based estimates was calculated. The impact of including smoking estimates in negative binomial regression models of counts of premature coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths was assessed.SettingPrimary care in the East Midlands.ParticipantsAll general practices in the area of study were eligible for inclusion (230). 14 practices were excluded due to incomplete QOF data for the period of study (2006/2007-2012/2013). One practice was excluded as it served a restricted practice list.MeasurementsEstimates of smoking prevalence in general practice populations and among patients with chronic conditions.ResultsMedian smoking prevalence in the practice populations for 2012/2013 was 19.2% (range 5.8-43.0%). There was good agreement (mean difference: 0.39%; 95% limits of agreement (-3.77, 4.55)) between IHS estimates for local authority districts and aggregated QOF register estimates. Smoking prevalence estimates in those with chronic conditions were lower than for the general population (mean difference -3.05%), but strongly correlated (Rp=0.74, p<0.0001). An important positive association between premature CHD mortality and smoking prevalence was shown when smoking prevalence was added to other population and service characteristics.ConclusionsPublished QOF data allow useful estimation of smoking prevalence within practice populations and in those with chronic conditions; the latter estimates may sometimes be useful in place of the former. It may also provide useful estimates of smoking prevalence in local areas by aggregating practice based data.

Dataset Information

How Initial Prevalence Moderates Network-based Smoking Change: Estimating Contextual Effects with Stochastic Actor-based Models.

Publications

How Initial Prevalence Moderates Network-based Smoking Change: Estimating Contextual Effects with Stochastic Actor-based Models.

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