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BCG vaccination and tuberculosis prevention: A forty years cohort study, Monastir, Tunisia.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to describe incidence, trends of tuberculosis (TB) over 18 years and to evaluate the impact of the BCG vaccine after four decades of immunization program according to three protocols. We performed a cohort study including declared cases in Monastir from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We reported 997 cases of TB. The predominant site was pulmonarylocalization (n = 486). The age standardized incidence of pulmonary and lymph node TB per 100,000 inh were 5.71 and 2.57 respectively. Trends were negative for pulmonary TB (PTB) (b = - 0.82; r = -0.67; p<10-3) and positive for lymph node localization (b = 1.31; r = 0.63; p<10-3). We had not notified cases of HIV associated with TB. Crude incidence rate (CIR) of PTB per 100,000 inh was 8.17 in Non-Vaccinated Cohort (NVC) and 2.85 in Vaccinated Cohort (VC) (p < 0.0001). Relative risk reduction (RRR) of BCG vaccination was 65.1% (95%CI:57.5;71.4) for pulmonary localization and 65% (95%CI:55; 73) for other localizations. We have not established a significant RRR of BCG vaccination on lymph node TB. Protocol 3 (at birth) had the highest effectiveness with a RRR of 96.7% (95%CI: 86.6%; 99.2%) and 86% (95%CI:71%;91%) in patients with PTB and other localizations TB respectively. In Cox regression model the HR was 0.061 (95% CI 0.015-0.247) for PTB and 0.395 (95% CI 0.185-0.844) for other localizations TB in patients receiving protocol 3 compared to NVC. For lymph-node TB, HR was 1.390 (95% CI 1.043-1.851) for protocol 1 and 1.849 (95% CI 1.232-2.774) for protocol 2 compared to NVC. Depending on the three protocols, the BCG vaccine had a positive impact on PTB and other TB localizations that must be kept and improved. However, protocols 1 and 2 had a reverse effect on lymph node TB.

SUBMITTER: Bennasrallah C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6682306 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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BCG vaccination and tuberculosis prevention: A forty years cohort study, Monastir, Tunisia.

Bennasrallah Cyrine C Kacem Meriem M Dhouib Wafa W Zemni Imen I Ben Fredj Manel M Abroug Hela H Djobbi Amira A Green Assia A Said Samia Grira SG Maalel Issam I Stambouli Sarra S Zhir Wafa W Youssef Hichem Bel Haj HBH Sriha Belguith Asma A

PloS one 20190805 8

We aimed to describe incidence, trends of tuberculosis (TB) over 18 years and to evaluate the impact of the BCG vaccine after four decades of immunization program according to three protocols. We performed a cohort study including declared cases in Monastir from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We reported 997 cases of TB. The predominant site was pulmonarylocalization (n = 486). The age standardized incidence of pulmonary and lymph node TB per 100,000 inh were 5.71 and 2.57 respectively. T ...[more]

PMID: 31381577

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Project description:BackgroundBCG has been recommended at birth in countries with a high tuberculosis burden for decades, yet delayed vaccination is widespread. To support a WHO guidance review, we estimated the potential global tuberculosis mortality benefit of administering BCG on time and consequences of later administration.MethodsWe estimated age-specific BCG coverage in 152 high-burden countries using data from large, nationally representative household surveys, to parameterise a static mathematical model, calibrated to global childhood tuberculosis deaths in 2016. 12 hypothetical scenarios explored the effect of BCG delivery at birth, 6 weeks, 6 months, or 9-12 months, on tuberculosis deaths per global birth cohort by age 15 years, including delivery at the time of the first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP1) or the first measles-containing vaccine (MCV1). We assumed constant vaccine efficacy by age, but varied coverage and degree of vaccination delay, including no delay.FindingsIn 152 high-burden countries, we estimated that BCG coverage in 2016 was 37% at 1 week of age, 67% at 6 weeks, and 92% at 3 years. Modelled scenarios in which 92% BCG coverage was achieved at birth reduced tuberculosis deaths in the global birth cohort by 5449 (95% uncertainty range 218-15 071) or 2·8% (0·1-7·0) by age 15 years. 100% coverage at birth reduced tuberculosis deaths by 16·5% (0·7-41·9). Later administration increased tuberculosis deaths-eg, BCG vaccination at 6 weeks, the recommended age of DTP1, increased tuberculosis deaths by 0·2% (0-0·4), even if BCG reached DTP1 coverage levels (94% at 3 years).InterpretationReducing delays and increasing coverage at birth would substantially reduce global paediatric tuberculosis mortality. Modelled scenarios whereby BCG was administered later in the infant schedule were all estimated to increase tuberculosis deaths, even with increased coverage. The WHO recommendation for BCG at birth should be maintained and emphasised.FundingWHO.

Dataset Information

BCG vaccination and tuberculosis prevention: A forty years cohort study, Monastir, Tunisia.

Publications

BCG vaccination and tuberculosis prevention: A forty years cohort study, Monastir, Tunisia.

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