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Prospects for narrowing bounds on Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity.

ABSTRACT: The concept of Earth's Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is reviewed. A particular problem in quantifying plausible bounds for ECS has been how to account for all of the diverse lines of relevant scientific evidence. It is argued that developing and refuting physical storylines (hypotheses) for values outside any proposed range has the potential to better constrain these bounds and to help articulate the science needed to narrow the range further. A careful reassessment of all important lines of evidence supporting these storylines, their limitations, and the assumptions required to combine them is therefore required urgently.

SUBMITTER: Stevens B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6686333 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prospects for narrowing bounds on Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Stevens Bjorn B Sherwood Steven C SC Bony Sandrine S Webb Mark J MJ

Earth's future 20161118 11

The concept of Earth's Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is reviewed. A particular problem in quantifying plausible bounds for ECS has been how to account for all of the diverse lines of relevant scientific evidence. It is argued that developing and refuting physical storylines (hypotheses) for values outside any proposed range has the potential to better constrain these bounds and to help articulate the science needed to narrow the range further. A careful reassessment of all important line ...[more]

PMID: 31423453

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Project description:Abstract We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult?to?quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6–3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3–4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5–95% ranges are 2.3–4.7 K, bounded by 2.0–5.7 K (although such high?confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing?feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes. Key Points We assess evidence relevant to Earth's climate sensitivity S: feedback process understanding and the historical and paleoclimate records All three lines of evidence are difficult to reconcile with S < 2 K, while paleo evidence provides the strongest case against S > 4.5 K A Bayesian calculation finds a 66% range of 2.6–3.9 K, which remains within the bounds 2.3–4.5 K under plausible robustness tests

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Prospects for narrowing bounds on Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Publications

Prospects for narrowing bounds on Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity.

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