Dataset Information

Road traffic injuries in China from 2007 to 2016: the epidemiological characteristics, trends and influencing factors.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Road traffic accidents are one of the serious disasters that cause public injury, fatality and great economic loss. They are a growing public health problem around the world.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to determine epidemiological characteristics, tendency and possible influencing factors of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in China, so as to give target suggestions on preventative measures.

Methods

Road traffic accident data were obtained from National Bureau of Statistics of China and Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China. Descriptive statistic such as RTIs frequency, trends of different accident types from 2007 to 2016; the RTIs difference between different regions and road surfaces were compared; and the possible influencing factors of RTIs were also explored.

Results

Over the past decade, with the mileage of constructed highway increased, the frequency of road traffic accidents have declined substantially in China, and the death toll from road traffic accidents with motor vehicles has declined from 2007 to 2015, Conversely, the number of deaths from non-motor vehicle accidents has risen rapidly since 2012. Our study showed that the traffic accident related mortality in Guizhou province was different from the level of the whole nation, and the Eastern, Central and Western areas of China were all significantly different (P < 0.001). Linear regression suggested a significant affected of gross domestic product (GDP)-per-capita, education level, the number of health institutions, populations, and car ownership status on traffic accident death tolls (P < 0.001). Moreover, cement concrete pavement roads were associated with the highest occurrence rates of RTI, and RTIs was statistically significant (P < 0.001) on different road surfaces.

Conclusion

Even though the frequency of road traffic accidents has declined, RTIs remain an urgent public health problem in China. Thus, the government should give some target preventative measures to reduce RTIs, aiming at different regions, the increasing trend of the death toll related to non-motor vehicles and the highest occurrence on cement concrete pavement roads.

SUBMITTER: Wang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6688591 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Road traffic injuries in China from 2007 to 2016: the epidemiological characteristics, trends and influencing factors.

Wang Xue X Yu Huiting H Nie Chan C Zhou Yanna Y Wang Haiyan H Shi Xiuquan X

PeerJ 20190806

<h4>Background</h4>Road traffic accidents are one of the serious disasters that cause public injury, fatality and great economic loss. They are a growing public health problem around the world.<h4>Objectives</h4>The aim of this study was to determine epidemiological characteristics, tendency and possible influencing factors of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in China, so as to give target suggestions on preventative measures.<h4>Methods</h4>Road traffic accident data were obtained from National Bur ...[more]

PMID: 31404405

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Project description:ObjectivesEvery day, an average of 3,400 deaths and tens of millions of injuries occur as a result of traffic accidents. This study aims to model and validate road traffic injury (RTI) times series, specifically considering gender.Study designTime trend studies of monthly road traffic injuries (RTI) in Iran from March 2005 to February 2016, as well as those of males and females from March 2009 to February 2016 were performed.MethodsThe seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average method (SARIMA) was employed to predict RTI time series. The final model was selected from various SARIMA models based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). To examine whether the residuals were white noise, the Ljung-Box (LB) test and residuals plots were used for un-correlation, and the zero mean and stationarity, respectively. Additionally, smoothing methods were utilized to validate the SARIMA models for fitting and out-of-range prediction of the time series models under study. The sample auto-correlation function (ACF) and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) with 20 lags were employed to determine the order of models and to ascertain if the residuals of the model were uncorrelated.ResultsBased on the obtained results, SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,1)12, SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12, SARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12, and SARIMA (2,0,0)(1,0,0)12 were chosen for the time series including incidence rates of total road traffic injuries (IRTI), IRTI of males, females, and males-to-females, respectively. The AIC values were -87.57, 413.38, -732.91, and -85.32, respectively. The LB test for the residuals of the time series models of (0.539) IRTI, (0.3) IRTI of males, (0.23) females, and (0.237) males-to-females indicated that residuals were uncorrelated. Furthermore, prediction values for the next 24 months (2016 to 2018) showed no decline in the incidence rate of male and female traffic injuries. Results of the predictions using exponential smoothing methods indicated out-of-range prediction validity of the SARIMA models.ConclusionThis study exemplified the high efficiency of SARIMA models in predicting road traffic injuries (RTIs). Based on observations, the IRTI mean in Iran was 35.57 in 2016. The predicted values of the IRTI for 2016-2018 by the SARIMA model showed no decreasing trend. During the studied period, the observed values of IRTI for males were two to three times the female values. Thus, prediction of RTI can provide a useful tool for traffic safety policymaking by simulating interrupted time series when applying new traffic enforcement interventions and regulations in the future. Additionally, IRTI analysis of males and females showed that men had a non-increasing trend but higher incidence of traffic injuries, whereas the IRTI for women revealed an increasing trend from 2009 to 2012 with a lower incidence of injuries. This growth could be attributed to the impact of increased outdoor activities of women and the increased number of issued driving licenses in the period of 2009-2012.

Dataset Information

Road traffic injuries in China from 2007 to 2016: the epidemiological characteristics, trends and influencing factors.

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Road traffic injuries in China from 2007 to 2016: the epidemiological characteristics, trends and influencing factors.

Similar Datasets

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