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Evidence of Modeling Impact in Development of Policies for Controlling the Opioid Epidemic and Improving Public Health: A Scoping Review.

ABSTRACT: Background:Opioid addiction and overdose rates are reaching unprecedented levels in the U.S., with around 47,736 overdose deaths in 2017. Many stakeholders affect the opioid epidemic, including government entities, healthcare providers and policymakers, and opioid users. Simulation and conceptual modeling can help us understand the dynamics of the opioid epidemic by simplifying the real world and informing policymakers about different health interventions that could reduce the deaths caused by opioid overdose in the United States every year. Objectives:To conduct a scoping review of simulation and conceptual models that propose policies capable of controlling the opioid epidemic. We demonstrate the strengths and limitations of these models and provide a framework for further improvement of future decision support tools. Methods:Using the methodology of a scoping review, we identified articles published after 2000 from eight electronic databases to map the literature that uses simulation and conceptual modeling in developing public health policies to address the opioid epidemic. Results:We reviewed 472 papers of which 14 were appropriate for inclusion. Each used either system dynamics simulation modeling, mathematical modeling, conceptual modeling, or agent-based modeling. All included studies tested and proposed strategies to improve health outcomes related to the opioid epidemic. Factors considered in the models included physicians prescribing opioids, trafficking, users recruiting new users, and doctor shopping; no model investigated the impact of age and spatial factors on the dynamics of the epidemic. Key findings from these studies were (1) prevention of opioid initiation is better than treatment of opioid addiction, (2) the analysis of an intervention's impact should include both benefits and harms, and (3) interventions with short-term benefits might have a counterproductive impact on the epidemic in long run. Conclusions:While most studies examined the role of prescription opioids and trafficking on this epidemic, the transition of patients from prescription opioid use to nonprescription use including heroin and synthetic opioids such as fentanyl impacts the system significantly and results in an epidemic with quite different characteristics than what it had a decade ago. We recommend including the impact of age and geographic location on the opioid epidemic using modeling methods.

SUBMITTER: Sharareh N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6689912 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evidence of Modeling Impact in Development of Policies for Controlling the Opioid Epidemic and Improving Public Health: A Scoping Review.

Sharareh Nasser N Sabounchi Shabnam S SS McFarland Mary M Hess Rachel R

Substance abuse : research and treatment 20190809

<h4>Background</h4>Opioid addiction and overdose rates are reaching unprecedented levels in the U.S., with around 47,736 overdose deaths in 2017. Many stakeholders affect the opioid epidemic, including government entities, healthcare providers and policymakers, and opioid users. Simulation and conceptual modeling can help us understand the dynamics of the opioid epidemic by simplifying the real world and informing policymakers about different health interventions that could reduce the deaths cau ...[more]

PMID: 31447562

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Although long-term alcohol and tobacco use have widely been recognised as important risk factors for cancer, the impacts of alcohol and tobacco health policies on cancer mortality have not been examined in previous studies. This study aims to estimate the association of key alcohol and tobacco policy or events in Australia with changes in overall and five specific types of cancer mortality between the 1950s and 2013. METHODS:Annual population-based time-series data between 1911 and 2013 on per capita alcohol and tobacco consumption and head and neck (lip, oral cavity, pharynx, larynx and oesophagus), lung, breast, colorectum and anus, liver and total cancer mortality data from the 1950s to 2013 were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Cancer Council Victoria, the WHO Cancer Mortality Database and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. The policies with significant relations to changes in alcohol and tobacco consumption were identified in an initial model. Intervention dummies with estimated lags were then developed based on these key alcohol and tobacco policies and events and inserted into time-series models to estimate the relation of the particular policy changes with cancer mortality. RESULTS:Liquor licence liberalisation in the 1960s was significantly associated with increases in the level of population drinking and thereafter of male cancer mortality. The introduction of random breath testing programs in Australia after 1976 was associated with a reduction in population drinking and thereafter in cancer mortality for both men and women. Meanwhile, the release of UK and US public health reports on tobacco in 1962 and 1964 and the ban on cigarette ads on TV and radio in 1976 were found to have been associated with a reduction in Australian tobacco consumption and thereafter a reduction in mortality from all cancer types except liver cancer. Policy changes on alcohol and tobacco during the 1960s-1980s were associated with greater changes for men than for women, particularly for head and neck, lung and colorectum cancer sites. CONCLUSION:This study provides evidence that some changes to public health policies in Australia in the twentieth century were related to the changes in the population consumption of alcohol and tobacco, and in subsequent mortality from various cancers over the following 20?years.

Project description:IntroductionOpioids are one of the most important and effective drug classes in pain medicine with a key role in most medical fields. The increase of opioid prescription over time has led to higher numbers of prescription opioid misuse, abuse and opioid-related deaths in most developed OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries around the world. Whilst reliable data on the prevalence of opioid treatment is accessible for many countries, data on Germany specifically is still scarce. Considering Germany being the largest country in the European Union, the lack of evidence-based strategies from long-term studies is crucial. The aim of this work is to review and summarise relevant published literature on the prevalence of opioid prescription in Germany to adequately inform health policy strategies.MethodsA systematic review of the epidemiology of opioid prescription in Germany was conducted, searching PubMed and Web of Science. Eligibility criteria were defined prior to conducting the search. Literature concerning Germany, published in English and German was included and the search was replicated by three independent researchers. Two levels of screening were employed. Disagreement was resolved by face-to-face discussion, leading to a consensus judgement.ResultsOur electronic search yielded 735 articles. Reviewing titles and abstracts yielded 19 relevant articles. Three authors examined each article's full text more closely and determined that twelve papers should be included. Of the twelve identified studies-with publication dates ranging from 1985 to 2016-six were retrospective cross-sectional studies and six were retrospective repeated-measures cross-sectional studies. Sample sizes ranged from 92,842 to ? 11,000,000 participants. Data sources of included studies showed vast heterogeneity. The reviewed literature suggested an increase in the number of patients with opioid prescriptions and defined daily doses of opioids per recipient in Germany over time. The majority of opioid prescriptions was used for patients with non-cancer pain. Opioid use was more common in older people, women and in the north of Germany. Fentanyl was shown to be the most prescribed strong opioid in outpatient settings in Germany, despite not being the first-line choice for chronic pain conditions. All data published before 2000-but none of the more recent studies-suggested an insufficient treatment of pain using opioids. There were no signs for a current opioid epidemic in Germany.ConclusionsDespite some limitations of the review and the heterogeneity of studies, it can be stated that the number of opioid prescriptions overall as well as the number of people receiving opioid treatment have increased over time. Most prescriptions were found to be for strong opioids and patients with non-cancer pain. Even though patterns of opioid prescription follow trends observed in other developed countries, there are no signs of an opioid epidemic in Germany. Therefore, this review could currently not find a need for urgent health policy interventions regarding opioid prescription practices. However, critical gaps in the literature remain and more research is needed to make more reliable judgements.

Project description:Policy Points This scoping review reveals a growing literature on the effects of certain state opioid misuse prevention policies, but persistent gaps in evidence on other prevalent state policies remain. Policymakers interested in reducing the volume and dosage of opioids prescribed and dispensed can consider adopting robust prescription drug monitoring programs with mandatory access provisions and drug supply management policies, such as prior authorization policies for high-risk prescription opioids. Further research should concentrate on potential unintended consequences of opioid misuse prevention policies, differential policy effects across populations, interventions that have not received sufficient evaluation (eg, Good Samaritan laws, naloxone access laws), and patient-related outcomes.ContextIn the midst of an opioid crisis in the United States, an influx of state opioid misuse prevention policies has provided new opportunities to generate evidence of policy effectiveness that can inform policy decisions. We conducted a scoping review to synthesize the available evidence on the effectiveness of US state interventions to improve patient and provider outcomes related to opioid misuse and addiction.MethodsWe searched six online databases to identify evaluations of state opioid policies. Eligible studies examined legislative and administrative policy interventions that evaluated (a) prescribing and dispensing, (b) patient behavior, or (c) patient health.FindingsSeventy-one articles met our inclusion criteria, including 41 studies published between 2016 and 2018. These articles evaluated nine types of state policies targeting opioid misuse. While prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) have received considerable attention in the literature, far fewer studies addressed other types of state policy. Overall, evidence quality is very low for the majority of policies due to a small number of evaluations. Of interventions that have been the subject of considerable research, promising means of reducing the volume and dosages of opioids prescribed and dispensed include drug supply management policies and robust PDMPs. Due to low study number and quality, evidence is insufficient to draw conclusions regarding interventions targeting patient behavior and health outcomes, including naloxone access laws and Good Samaritan laws.ConclusionsRecent research has improved the evidence base on several state interventions targeting opioid misuse. Specifically, moderate evidence suggests that drug supply management policies and robust PDMPs reduce opioid prescribing. Despite the increase in rigorous evaluations, evidence remains limited for the majority of policies, particularly those targeting patient health-related outcomes.

Project description:Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved.

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Evidence of Modeling Impact in Development of Policies for Controlling the Opioid Epidemic and Improving Public Health: A Scoping Review.

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Evidence of Modeling Impact in Development of Policies for Controlling the Opioid Epidemic and Improving Public Health: A Scoping Review.

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