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Evidence for a link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and annual asthma mortality rates in the US.

ABSTRACT: An association between climatic conditions and asthma mortality has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether climatic variations have a fingerprint on asthma dynamics over long time intervals. The aim of this study is to detect a possible correlation between climatic indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and asthma mortality rates over the period from 1950 to 2015 in the contiguous US. To this aim, an analysis of non-stationary and non-linear signals was performed on time series of US annual asthma mortality rates, AMO and PDO indices to search for characteristic periodicities. Results revealed that asthma death rates evaluated for four different age groups (5-14 yr; 15-24 yr; 25-34 yr; 35-44 yr) share the same pattern of fluctuation throughout the 1950-2015 time interval, but different trends, i.e. a positive (negative) trend for the two youngest (oldest) categories. Annual asthma death rates turned out to be correlated with the dynamics of the AMO, and also modulated by the PDO, sharing the same averaged ∼44 year-periodicity. The results of the current study suggest that, since climate patterns have proved to influence asthma mortality rates, they could be advisable in future studies aimed at elucidating the complex relationships between climate and asthma mortality.

SUBMITTER: Bonomo S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6690970 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Importance:Multiple states publicly report a hospital's risk-adjusted mortality rate for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) as a quality measure. However, whether reported annual PCI mortality is associated with a hospital's future performance is unclear. Objective:To evaluate the association between reported risk-adjusted hospital PCI-related mortality and a hospital's future PCI-related mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants:This study used data from the New York Percutaneous Intervention Reporting System from January 1, 1998, to December 31, 2016, to assess hospitals that perform PCI. Exposures:Public-reported, risk-adjusted, 30-day mortality after PCI. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary analysis evaluated the association between a hospital's reported risk-adjusted PCI-related mortality and future PCI-related mortality. The correlation between a hospital's observed to expected (O/E) PCI-related mortality rates each year and future O/E mortality ratios was assessed. Multivariable linear regression was used to examine the association between index year O/E mortality and O/E mortality in subsequent years while adjusting for PCI volume and patient severity. Results:This study included 67 New York hospitals and 960 hospital-years. Hospitals with low PCI-related mortality (O/E mortality ratio, ?1) and high mortality (O/E mortality ratio, >1) had inverse associations between their O/E mortality ratio in the index year and the subsequent change in the ratio (hospitals with low mortality, r?=?-0.45; hospitals with high mortality, r?=?-0.60). Little of the variation in risk-adjusted mortality was explained by prior performance. An increase in the O/E mortality ratio from 1.0 to 2.0 in the index year was associated with a higher O/E mortality ratio of only 0.15 (95% CI, 0.02-0.27) in the following year. Conclusions and Relevance:At hospitals with high or low PCI-related mortality rates, the rates largely regressed to the mean the following year. A hospital's risk-adjusted mortality rate was poorly associated with its future mortality. The annual hospital PCI-related mortality may not be a reliable factor associated with hospital quality to consider in a practice change or when helping patients select high-quality hospitals.

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Evidence for a link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and annual asthma mortality rates in the US.

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