Dataset Information

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In 2013, Turkey introduced one-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) at 12 months of age. Inclusion of a second dose is being considered.

Methods

We developed a dynamic transmission model to evaluate three vaccination strategies: single dose at 12 months (1D) or second dose at either 18 months (2D-short) or 6 years of age (2D-long). Costs and utilization were age-stratified and separated into inpatient and outpatient costs for varicella and herpes zoster (HZ). We ran the model including and excluding HZ-related costs and impact of exogenous boosting.

Results

Five years post-introduction of UVV (1D), the projected varicella incidence rate decreases from 1,674 cases pre-vaccine to 80 cases/100,000 person-years. By 25 years, varicella incidence equilibrates at 39, 12, and 16 cases/100,000 person-years for 1D, 2D-short, and 2D-long strategies, respectively, using a highly effective vaccine. With or without including exogenous boosting impact and/or HZ-related costs and health benefits, the 1D strategy is least costly, but 2-dose strategies are cost-effective considering a willingness-to-pay threshold equivalent to the gross domestic product. The model predicted a modest increase in HZ burden during the first 20-30 years, after which time HZ incidence equilibrates at a lower rate than pre-vaccine.

Conclusions

Our findings support adding a second varicella vaccine dose in Turkey, as doing so is highly cost-effective across a wide range of assumptions regarding the burden associated with varicella and HZ disease.

SUBMITTER: Wolfson LJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6692038 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model.

Wolfson Lara J LJ Daniels Vincent J VJ Pillsbury Matthew M Kurugöl Zafer Z Yardimci Cuneyt C Kyle Jeffrey J Dinleyici Ener Cagri EC

PloS one 20190813 8

<h4>Background</h4>In 2013, Turkey introduced one-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) at 12 months of age. Inclusion of a second dose is being considered.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a dynamic transmission model to evaluate three vaccination strategies: single dose at 12 months (1D) or second dose at either 18 months (2D-short) or 6 years of age (2D-long). Costs and utilization were age-stratified and separated into inpatient and outpatient costs for varicella and herpes zoster (HZ). We r ...[more]

PMID: 31408505

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Project description:ObjectivesComprehensive cost-effectiveness analyses of introducing varicella and/or herpes zoster vaccination in the Swedish national vaccination programme.DesignCost-effectiveness analyses based on epidemiological results from a specifically developed transmission model.SettingNational vaccination programme in Sweden, over an 85- or 20-year time horizon depending on the vaccination strategy.ParticipantsHypothetical cohorts of people aged 12 months and 65-years at baseline.InterventionsFour alternative vaccination strategies; 1, not to vaccinate; 2, varicella vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at age 12 months and a second dose at age 18 months; 3, herpes zoster vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at 65 years of age; and 4, both vaccine against varicella and herpes zoster with the before-mentioned strategies.Main outcome measuresAccumulated cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for each strategy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).ResultsIt would be cost-effective to vaccinate against varicella (dominant), but not to vaccinate against herpes zoster (ICER of EUR 200,000), assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of EUR 50,000 per QALY. The incremental analysis between varicella vaccination only and the combined programme results in a cost per gained QALY of almost EUR 1.6 million.ConclusionsThe results from this study are central components for policy-relevant decision-making, and suggest that it was cost-effective to introduce varicella vaccination in Sweden, whereas herpes zoster vaccination with the live attenuated vaccine for the elderly was not cost-effective-the health effects of the latter vaccination cannot be considered reasonable in relation to its costs. Future observational and surveillance studies are needed to make reasonable predictions on how boosting affects the herpes zoster incidence in the population, and thus the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme against varicella. Also, the link between herpes zoster and sequelae need to be studied in more detail to include it suitably in health economic evaluations.

Project description:UnlabelledIntroductionPersistent infections with human papillomavirus (HPV) are a necessary cause of cervical cancer and are responsible for important morbidity in men and women. Since 2007, HPV vaccination has been recommended and funded for all girls aged 12 to 17 in Germany. A previously published cost-effectiveness analysis, using a static model, showed that a quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme for 12-year-old girls in Germany would be cost effective. Here we present the results from a dynamic transmission model that can be used to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of different vaccination schemas.MethodsWe adapted a HPV dynamic transmission model, which has been used in other countries, to the German context. The model was used to compare a cervical cancer screening only strategy with a strategy of combining vaccination of females aged 12-17 years old and cervical cancer screening, based on the current recommendations in Germany. In addition, the impact of increasing vaccination coverage in this cohort of females aged 12-17 years old was evaluated in sensitivity analysis.ResultsThe results from this analysis show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme of females ages 12 to 17 in Germany is cost-effective with an ICER of 5,525€/QALY (quality adjusted life year). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) increased to 10,293€/QALY when the vaccine effects on HPV6/11 diseases were excluded. At steady state, the model predicted that vaccinating girls aged 12 to 17 could reduce the number of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancers by 65% and genital warts among women and men by 70% and 48%, respectively. The impact on HPV-related disease incidence and costs avoided would occur relatively soon after initiating the vaccine programme, with much of the early impact being due to the prevention of HPV6/11-related genital warts.ConclusionsThese results show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening programmes in Germany will substantially reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and genital warts. The evaluated vaccination strategies were all found to be cost-effective. Future analyses should include more HPV-related diseases.

Project description:BackgroundDespite widespread immunization programs, a clear increase in pertussis incidence is apparent in many developed countries during the last decades. Consequently, additional immunization strategies are considered to reduce the burden of disease. The aim of this study is to design an individual-based stochastic dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population in order to predict the epidemiologic and economic consequences of the implementation of universal booster vaccination programs. Using this framework, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of universal adolescent pertussis booster vaccination at the age of 12 years in the Netherlands.Methods/principal findingsWe designed a discrete event simulation (DES) model to predict the epidemiological and economic consequences of implementing universal adolescent booster vaccination. We used national age-specific notification data over the period 1996-2000--corrected for underreporting--to calibrate the model assuming a steady state situation. Subsequently, booster vaccination was introduced. Input parameters of the model were derived from literature, national data sources (e.g. costing data, incidence and hospitalization data) and expert opinions. As there is no consensus on the duration of immunity acquired by natural infection, we considered two scenarios for this duration of protection (i.e. 8 and 15 years). In both scenarios, total pertussis incidence decreased as a result of adolescent vaccination. From a societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness was estimated at €4418/QALY (range: 3205-6364 € per QALY) and €6371/QALY (range: 4139-9549 € per QALY) for the 8- and 15-year protection scenarios, respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the outcomes are most sensitive to the quality of life weights used for pertussis disease.Conclusions/significanceTo our knowledge we designed the first individual-based dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population. This study indicates that adolescent pertussis vaccination is likely to be a cost-effective intervention for The Netherlands. The model is suited to investigate further pertussis booster vaccination strategies.

Dataset Information

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model.

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