Dataset Information

Ecological niche modelling for predicting the risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Neotropical moist forest biome.

ABSTRACT: A major challenge of eco-epidemiology is to determine which factors promote the transmission of infectious diseases and to establish risk maps that can be used by public health authorities. The geographic predictions resulting from ecological niche modelling have been widely used for modelling the future dispersion of vectors based on the occurrence records and the potential prevalence of the disease. The establishment of risk maps for disease systems with complex cycles such as cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) can be very challenging due to the many inference networks between large sets of host and vector species, with considerable heterogeneity in disease patterns in space and time. One novelty in the present study is the use of human CL cases to predict the risk of leishmaniasis occurrence in response to anthropogenic, climatic and environmental factors at two different scales, in the Neotropical moist forest biome (Amazonian basin and surrounding forest ecosystems) and in the surrounding region of French Guiana. With a consistent data set never used before and a conceptual and methodological framework for interpreting data cases, we obtained risk maps with high statistical support. The predominantly identified human CL risk areas are those where the human impact on the environment is significant, associated with less contributory climatic and ecological factors. For both models this study highlights the importance of considering the anthropogenic drivers for disease risk assessment in human, although CL is mainly linked to the sylvatic and peri-urban cycle in Meso and South America.

SUBMITTER: Chavy A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6693739 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ecological niche modelling for predicting the risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Neotropical moist forest biome.

Chavy Agathe A Ferreira Dales Nava Alessandra A Luz Sergio Luiz Bessa SLB Ramírez Juan David JD Herrera Giovanny G Vasconcelos Dos Santos Thiago T Ginouves Marine M Demar Magalie M Prévot Ghislaine G Guégan Jean-François JF de Thoisy Benoît B

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20190814 8

A major challenge of eco-epidemiology is to determine which factors promote the transmission of infectious diseases and to establish risk maps that can be used by public health authorities. The geographic predictions resulting from ecological niche modelling have been widely used for modelling the future dispersion of vectors based on the occurrence records and the potential prevalence of the disease. The establishment of risk maps for disease systems with complex cycles such as cutaneous leishm ...[more]

PMID: 31412022

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Project description:The Asimina-Disepalum clade (Annonaceae subfam. Annonoideae tribe Annoneae) includes a major Neotropical-Asian biogeographical disjunction. We evaluate whether this disjunction can be explained by the Eocene boreotropics hypothesis, which relies on the existence of extensive boreotropical forests during the Late Palaeocene-Early Eocene thermal maximum (52-50 Ma), followed by disruption of boreotropical vegetation during post-Eocene cooling. Molecular dating using an uncorrelated relaxed molecular clock (UCLD) model with two fossil calibrations, ancestral range estimation, and ecological niche modelling across evolutionary time were performed. Our focus was the geographical origin of Disepalum and general biogeographic patterns within this genus. Comparison of ecological tolerance among extant species and niche reconstructions at ancestral nodes within the clade enabled insights in likely migration routes of lineages, as well as evaluating the role of bioclimatic ecological differentiation in the diversification of Disepalum within Southeast Asia.The inferred vicariance event associated with the Asimina-Disepalum disjunction is estimated to have originated ca. 40 Mya [95% highest posterior density (HPD): 44.3-35.5 Mya]. The Disepalum crown lineage is estimated to have originated ca. 9 Mya (95% HPD: 10.6-7.6), either in western Malesia and continental Southeast Asia, or exclusively in western Malesia. Ecological niche modelling shows that seasonality of temperature and precipitation are major contributors determining the geographical range of species. Ancestral niche modelling furthermore indicates that the ancestor of the Asimina-Disepalum clade likely had bioclimatic preferences close to conditions found in current tropical and subtropical climates across Asia, whereas the ancestors of the Asimina and Disepalum crown groups are projected onto the more subtropical and tropical regions, respectively.The vicariance event associated with the Neotropical-Asian disjunction within the Asimina-Disepalum clade likely coincided with climatic deterioration at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. Although detrended component analyses (DCA) indicate that altitude and seasonality of temperature and precipitation have the greatest influence in determining the geographical range of species, isolation due to palaeogeographic and palaeoclimatic events appears to be of greater significance than climate niche differentiation in driving diversification in Disepalum.

Project description:The present health economic evaluation in Afghanistan aims to support public health decision makers and health care managers to allocate resources efficiently to appropriate treatments for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) elicited by Leishmania tropica or Leishmania major.A decision tree was used to analyse the cost and the effectiveness of two wound care regimens versus intra-lesional antimony in CL patients in Afghanistan. Costs were collected from a societal perspective. Effectiveness was measured in wound free days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental net monetary benefit (NMB) were calculated. The model was parameterized with baseline parameters, sensitivity ranges, and parameter distributions. Finally, the model was simulated and results were evaluated with deterministic and probability sensitivity analyses. Final outcomes were the efficiency of the regimens and a budget impact analysis in the context of Afghanistan.Average costs per patients were US$ 11 (SE?=?0.016) (Group I: Intra-dermal Sodium Stibogluconate [IL SSG]), US$ 16 (SE?=?7.58) (Group II: Electro-thermo-debridement [ETD]?+?Moist wound treatment [MWT]) and US$ 25 (SE?=?0.48) (Group III: MWT) in patients with a single chronic CL ulcer. From a societal perspective the budget impact analysis shows that the regimens' drug costs are lower than indirect disease cost. Average effectiveness in wound free days are 177 (SE?=?0.36) in Group II, 147 (SE?=?0.33) in Group III, and 129 (SE?=?0.27) in Group I. The ICER of Group II versus Group I was US$ 0.09 and Group III versus Group I US$ 0.77, which is very cost-effective with a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 2 per wound free day. Within a Monte-Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis Group II was cost-effective in 80% of the cases starting at a willingness-to-pay of 80 cent per wound free day.Group II provided the most cost-effective treatment. The non-treatment alternative is not an option in the management of chronic CL ulcers. MWT of Group III should at least be practiced. The cost-effectiveness of Group III depends on the number of dressings necessary until complete wound closure.

Dataset Information

Ecological niche modelling for predicting the risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Neotropical moist forest biome.

Publications

Ecological niche modelling for predicting the risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Neotropical moist forest biome.

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