Dataset Information

Every which way? On predicting tumor evolution using cancer progression models.

ABSTRACT: Successful prediction of the likely paths of tumor progression is valuable for diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment purposes. Cancer progression models (CPMs) use cross-sectional samples to identify restrictions in the order of accumulation of driver mutations and thus CPMs encode the paths of tumor progression. Here we analyze the performance of four CPMs to examine whether they can be used to predict the true distribution of paths of tumor progression and to estimate evolutionary unpredictability. Employing simulations we show that if fitness landscapes are single peaked (have a single fitness maximum) there is good agreement between true and predicted distributions of paths of tumor progression when sample sizes are large, but performance is poor with the currently common much smaller sample sizes. Under multi-peaked fitness landscapes (i.e., those with multiple fitness maxima), performance is poor and improves only slightly with sample size. In all cases, detection regime (when tumors are sampled) is a key determinant of performance. Estimates of evolutionary unpredictability from the best performing CPM, among the four examined, tend to overestimate the true unpredictability and the bias is affected by detection regime; CPMs could be useful for estimating upper bounds to the true evolutionary unpredictability. Analysis of twenty-two cancer data sets shows low evolutionary unpredictability for several of the data sets. But most of the predictions of paths of tumor progression are very unreliable, and unreliability increases with the number of features analyzed. Our results indicate that CPMs could be valuable tools for predicting cancer progression but that, currently, obtaining useful predictions of paths of tumor progression from CPMs is dubious, and emphasize the need for methodological work that can account for the probably multi-peaked fitness landscapes in cancer.

SUBMITTER: Diaz-Uriarte R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6693785 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Every which way? On predicting tumor evolution using cancer progression models.

Diaz-Uriarte Ramon R Vasallo Claudia C

PLoS computational biology 20190802 8

Successful prediction of the likely paths of tumor progression is valuable for diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment purposes. Cancer progression models (CPMs) use cross-sectional samples to identify restrictions in the order of accumulation of driver mutations and thus CPMs encode the paths of tumor progression. Here we analyze the performance of four CPMs to examine whether they can be used to predict the true distribution of paths of tumor progression and to estimate evolutionary unpredictabi ...[more]

PMID: 31374072

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundAdenocarcinoma (ADC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are the most prevalent histological types among lung cancers. Distinguishing between these subtypes is critically important because they have different implications for prognosis and treatment. Normally, histopathological analyses are used to distinguish between the two, where the tissue samples are collected based on small endoscopic samples or needle aspirations. However, the lack of cell architecture in these small tissue samples hampers the process of distinguishing between the two subtypes. Molecular profiling can also be used to discriminate between the two lung cancer subtypes, on condition that the biopsy is composed of at least 50 % of tumor cells. However, for some cases, the tissue composition of a biopsy might be a mix of tumor and tumor-adjacent histologically normal tissue (TAHN). When this happens, a new biopsy is required, with associated cost, risks and discomfort to the patient. To avoid this problem, we hypothesize that a computational method can distinguish between lung cancer subtypes given tumor and TAHN tissue.MethodsUsing publicly available datasets for gene expression and DNA methylation, we applied four classification tasks, depending on the possible combinations of tumor and TAHN tissue. First, we used a feature selector (ReliefF/Limma) to select relevant variables, which were then used to build a simple naïve Bayes classification model. Then, we evaluated the classification performance of our models by measuring the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Finally, we analyzed the relevance of the selected genes using hierarchical clustering and IPA® software for gene functional analysis.ResultsAll Bayesian models achieved high classification performance (AUC > 0.94), which were confirmed by hierarchical cluster analysis. From the genes selected, 25 (93 %) were found to be related to cancer (19 were associated with ADC or SCC), confirming the biological relevance of our method.ConclusionsThe results from this study confirm that computational methods using tumor and TAHN tissue can serve as a prognostic tool for lung cancer subtype classification. Our study complements results from other studies where TAHN tissue has been used as prognostic tool for prostate cancer. The clinical implications of this finding could greatly benefit lung cancer patients.

Dataset Information

Every which way? On predicting tumor evolution using cancer progression models.

Publications

Every which way? On predicting tumor evolution using cancer progression models.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets