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Estimated dengue force of infection and burden of primary infections among Indian children.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Comprehensive, age-stratified dengue surveillance data are unavailable from India and many more dengue cases occur than are reported. Additional information on dengue transmission dynamics can inform understanding of disease endemicity and infection risk. METHODS:Using age-stratified dengue IgG seroprevalence data from 2556 Indian children aged 5-10?years, we estimated annual force of infection (FOI) at each of 6 sites using a binomial regression model. We estimated the ages by which 50 and 70% of children were first infected; and predicted seroprevalence in children aged 1-10?years assuming constant force-of-infection. Applying these infection rates to national census data, we then calculated the number of primary dengue infections occurring, annually, in Indian children. RESULTS:Annual force-of-infection at all sites combined was 11.9% (95% CI 8.8-16.2), varying across sites from 3.5% (95% CI 2.8-4.4) to 21.2% (95% CI 18.4-24.5). Overall, 50 and 70% of children were infected by 5.8 (95% CI 4.3-7.9) and 10.1 (95% CI 7.4-13.7) years respectively. In all sites except Kalyani, >?70% of children had been infected before their 11th birthday, and goodness-of-fit statistics indicated a relatively constant force-of-infection over time except at two sites (Wardha and Hyderabad). Nationwide, we estimated 17,013,527 children (95% CI: 14,518,438- 19,218,733), equivalent to 6.5% of children aged

SUBMITTER: Bhavsar A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6694619 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimated dengue force of infection and burden of primary infections among Indian children.

Bhavsar Amit A Tam Clarence C CC Garg Suneela S Jammy Guru Rajesh GR Taurel Anne-Frieda AF Chong Sher-Ney SN Nealon Joshua J

BMC public health 20190814 1

<h4>Background</h4>Comprehensive, age-stratified dengue surveillance data are unavailable from India and many more dengue cases occur than are reported. Additional information on dengue transmission dynamics can inform understanding of disease endemicity and infection risk.<h4>Methods</h4>Using age-stratified dengue IgG seroprevalence data from 2556 Indian children aged 5-10 years, we estimated annual force of infection (FOI) at each of 6 sites using a binomial regression model. We estimated the ...[more]

PMID: 31412836

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Project description:BackgroundIndonesia reports the second highest dengue disease burden in the world; these data are from passive surveillance reports and are likely to be significant underestimates. Age-stratified seroprevalence data are relatively unbiased indicators of past exposure and allow understanding of transmission dynamics.Methodology/principal findingsTo better understand dengue infection history and associated risk factors in Indonesia, a representative population-based cross-sectional dengue seroprevalence study was conducted in 1-18-year-old urban children. From October to November 2014, 3,210 children were enrolled from 30 geographically dispersed clusters. Serum samples were tested for anti-dengue IgG antibodies by indirect ELISA. A questionnaire investigated associations between dengue serologic status and household socio-demographic and behavioural factors. Overall, 3,194 samples were tested, giving an adjusted national seroprevalence in this urban population of 69.4% [95% CI: 64.4-74.3] (33.8% [95% CI: 26.4-41.2] in the 1-4-year-olds, 65.4% [95% CI: 69.1-71.7] in the 5-9-year-olds, 83.1% [95% CI: 77.1-89.0] in the 10-14-year-olds, and 89.0% [95% CI: 83.9-94.1] in the 15-18-year-olds). The median age of seroconversion estimated through a linear model was 4.8 years. Using a catalytic model and considering a constant force of infection we estimated 13.1% of children experience a primary infection per year. Through a hierarchical logistic multivariate model, the subject's age group (1-4 vs 5-9 OR = 4.25; 1-4 vs. 10-14 OR = 12.60; and 1-4 vs 15-18 OR = 21.87; p<0.0001) and the number of cases diagnosed in the household since the subject was born (p = 0.0004) remained associated with dengue serological status.Conclusions/significanceThis is the first dengue seroprevalence study in Indonesia that is targeting a representative sample of the urban paediatric population. This study revealed that more than 80% of children aged 10 years or over have experienced dengue infection at least once. Prospective incidence studies would likely reveal dengue burdens far in excess of reported incidence rates.

Project description:BackgroundStratifying dengue risk within endemic countries is crucial for allocating limited control interventions. Current methods of monitoring dengue transmission intensity rely on potentially inaccurate incidence estimates. We investigated whether incidence or alternate metrics obtained from standard, or laboratory, surveillance operations represent accurate surrogate indicators of the burden of dengue and can be used to monitor the force of infection (FOI) across urban centres.MethodsAmong those who reported and resided in 13 cities across the Philippines, we collected epidemiological data from all dengue case reports between 2014 and 2017 (N 80,043) and additional laboratory data from a cross-section of sampled case reports (N 11,906) between 2014 and 2018. At the city level, we estimated the aggregated annual FOI from age-accumulated IgG among the non-dengue reporting population using catalytic modelling. We compared city-aggregated FOI estimates to aggregated incidence and the mean age of clinically and laboratory diagnosed dengue cases using Pearson's Correlation coefficient and generated predicted FOI estimates using regression modelling.ResultsWe observed spatial heterogeneity in the dengue average annual FOI across sampled cities, ranging from 0.054 [0.036-0.081] to 0.249 [0.223-0.279]. Compared to FOI estimates, the mean age of primary dengue infections had the strongest association (ρ -0.848, p value<0.001) followed by the mean age of those reporting with warning signs (ρ -0.642, p value 0.018). Using regression modelling, we estimated the predicted annual dengue FOI across urban centres from the age of those reporting with primary infections and revealed prominent spatio-temporal heterogeneity in transmission intensity.ConclusionsWe show the mean age of those reporting with their first dengue infection or those reporting with warning signs of dengue represent superior indicators of the dengue FOI compared to crude incidence across urban centres. Our work provides a framework for national dengue surveillance to routinely monitor transmission and target control interventions to populations most in need.

Project description:IntroductionDengue virus (DENV) infection is currently a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the world; it has become more common and virulent over the past half-century and has gained much attention. Thus, this review compared the percentage of severe cases of both primary and secondary infections with different serotypes of dengue virus.MethodsData related to the number of cases involving dengue fever (DF), dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), dengue shock syndrome (DSS) or severe dengue infections caused by different serotypes of dengue virus were obtained by using the SCOPUS, the PUBMED and the OVID search engines with the keywords "(dengue* OR dengue virus*) AND (severe dengue* OR severity of illness index* OR severity* OR DF* OR DHF* OR DSS*) AND (serotypes* OR serogroup*)", according to the MESH terms suggested by PUBMED and OVID.ResultsApproximately 31 studies encompassing 15,741 cases reporting on the dengue serotypes together with their severity were obtained, and meta-analysis was carried out to analyze the data. This study found that DENV-3 from the Southeast Asia (SEA) region displayed the greatest percentage of severe cases in primary infection (95% confidence interval (CI), 31.22-53.67, 9 studies, n = 598, I2 = 71.53%), whereas DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 from the SEA region, as well as DENV-2 and DENV-3 from non-SEA regions, exhibited the greatest percentage of severe cases in secondary infection (95% CI, 11.64-80.89, 4-14 studies, n = 668-3,149, I2 = 14.77-96.20%). Moreover, DENV-2 and DENV-4 from the SEA region had been found to be more highly associated with dengue shock syndrome (DSS) (95% CI, 10.47-40.24, 5-8 studies, n = 642-2,530, I2 = 76.93-97.70%), while DENV-3 and DENV-4 from the SEA region were found to be more highly associated with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) (95% CI, 31.86-54.58, 9 studies, n = 674-2,278, I2 = 55.74-88.47%), according to the 1997 WHO dengue classification. Finally, DENV-2 and DENV-4 from the SEA region were discovered to be more highly associated with secondary infection compared to other serotypes (95% CI, 72.01-96.32, 9-12 studies, n = 671-2,863, I2 = 25.01-96.75%).ConclusionThis study provides evidence that the presence of certain serotypes, including primary infection with DENV-3 from the SEA region and secondary infection with DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4 also from the SEA region, as well as DENV-2 and DENV-3 from non SEA regions, increased the risk of severe dengue infections. Thus, these serotypes are worthy of special consideration when making clinical predictions upon the severity of the infection.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42015026093 (http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO).

Project description:ImportanceA significant proportion of COVID-19 transmission occurs silently during the presymptomatic and asymptomatic stages of infection. Children, although important drivers of silent transmission, are not included in the current COVID-19 vaccination campaigns.ObjectiveTo estimate the benefits of identifying silent infections among children as a proxy for their vaccination.Design, setting, and participantsThis study used an age-structured disease transmission model, parameterized with census data and estimates from published literature, to simulate the estimated synergistic effect of interventions in reducing attack rates during the course of 1 year among a synthetic population representative of the US demographic composition. The population included 6 age groups of 0 to 4, 5 to 10, 11 to 18, 19 to 49, 50 to 64, and 65 years or older based on US census data. Data were analyzed from December 12, 2020, to February 26, 2021.ExposuresIn addition to the isolation of symptomatic cases within 24 hours of symptom onset, vaccination of adults was implemented to reach a 40% to 60% coverage during 1 year with an efficacy of 95% against symptomatic and severe COVID-19.Main outcomes and measuresThe combinations of proportion and speed for detecting silent infections among children that would suppress future attack rates to less than 5%.ResultsIn the base-case scenarios with an effective reproduction number Re = 1.2, a targeted approach that identifies 11% of silent infections among children within 2 days and 14% within 3 days after infection would bring attack rates to less than 5% with 40% vaccination coverage of adults. If silent infections among children remained undetected, achieving the same attack rates would require an unrealistically high vaccination coverage (≥81%) of this age group, in addition to 40% vaccination coverage of adults. The estimated effect of identifying silent infections was robust in sensitivity analyses with respect to vaccine efficacy against infection and reduced susceptibility of children to infection.Conclusions and relevanceIn this simulation modeling study of a synthetic US population, in the absence of vaccine availability for children, a targeted approach to rapidly identify silent COVID-19 infections in this age group was estimated to significantly mitigate disease burden. These findings suggest that without measures to interrupt transmission chains from silent infections, vaccination of adults is unlikely to contain the outbreaks in the near term.

Project description:A significant proportion of COVID-19 transmission occurs silently during the pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic stages of infection. Children, while being important drivers of silent transmission, are not included in the current COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. To investigate the benefits of identifying silent infections among children as a proxy for their vaccination. This study used an age-structured disease transmission model, parameterized with census data and estimates from published literature, to simulate the synergistic effect of interventions in reducing attack rates over the course of one year. A synthetic population representative of the United States (US) demographics. Six age groups of 0-4, 5-10, 11-18, 19-49, 50-64, 65+ years based on US census data. In addition to the isolation of symptomatic cases within 24 hours of symptom onset, vaccination of adults was implemented to reach a 40%-60% coverage over the course of one year with an efficacy of 95% against symptomatic and severe COVID-19. The combinations of proportion and speed for detecting silent infections among children which would suppress future attack rates below 5%. In the base-case scenarios with an effective reproduction number Re = 1.2, a targeted approach that identifies 11% and 14% of silent infections among children within 2 or 3 days post-infection, respectively, would bring attack rates under 5% with 40% vaccination coverage of adults. If silent infections among children remained undetected, achieving the same attack rates would require an unrealistically high vaccination coverage (at least 81%) of this age group, in addition to 40% vaccination coverage of adults. The effect of identifying silent infections was robust in sensitivity analyses with respect to vaccine efficacy against infection and reduced susceptibility of children to infection. In this simulation modeling study of a synthetic US population, in the absence of vaccine availability for children, a targeted approach to rapidly identify silent COVID-19 infections in this age group was estimated to significantly mitigate disease burden. Without measures to interrupt transmission chains from silent infections, vaccination of adults is unlikely to contain the outbreaks in the near term.

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Estimated dengue force of infection and burden of primary infections among Indian children.

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Estimated dengue force of infection and burden of primary infections among Indian children.

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