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Parameterization of the Durations of Phases of Foot-And-Mouth Disease in Cattle.

ABSTRACT: The objective of the current study was to update parameterization of mathematical simulation models for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) spread in cattle utilizing recent knowledge of FMD virus (FMDV) pathogenesis and infection dynamics to estimate the duration of distinct phases of FMD. Specifically, the durations of incubation, latent, and infectious periods were estimated for 3 serotypes (O, Asia1, and A) of FMDV, individually and collectively (pan-serotypic). Animal-level data were used in Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models to estimate the duration of the defined phases of infection, while also investigating the influence of factors related to the experimental design (exposure methods) and virus serotype on disease progression. Substantial influences upon the estimated duration of distinct phases of FMD included the quantity of viral shedding used as a proxy for the onset of infectiousness, virus serotypes, and experimental exposure methods. The use of detection of any viral RNA in nasal secretions as a proxy of infectiousness lengthened the total infectious period compared to use of threshold-based detection. Additionally, the experimental system used to infect the animals also had significant effects on the duration of distinct phases of disease. Overall, the mean [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] durations of pan-serotype disease phases in cattle were estimated to be: incubation phase = 3.6 days (2.7-4.8), latent phase = 1.5 days (1.1-2.1), subclinical infectious phase = 2.2 days (1.5-3.5), clinical infectious phase = 8.5 days (6.2-11.6), and total infectious phase = 10.8 days (8.2-14.2). This study highlights the importance of identifying appropriate proxy measures to define the onset and duration of infectiousness in FMDV-infected cattle in the absence of actual transmission data. Additionally, it is demonstrated herein that factors associated with experimental design, such as virus exposure methods, may significantly affect disease progression in individual animals and should be considered when data is extrapolated from experimental studies. Given limitations in experimental data availability, pan-serotypic parameters which include all routes of exposure and a threshold-defined onset of infectiousness may be the most robust parameters for exploratory disease spread modeling approaches, when information on the specific virus of interest is not available.

SUBMITTER: Yadav S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6696987 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Nigeria is a large densely populated country in West Africa. Most of its livestock is raised in a pastoralist production system with typical long distance migration in search of water and feed. As the demand for animal products largely exceeds the domestic production, large numbers of livestock are imported from neighboring countries without sanitary restrictions. In Nigeria, foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotypes O, A, and Southern African Territories (SAT)2 are endemic for a long time. Clinical outbreaks of FMD due to serotype SAT1 are described again since 2015, after an absence of more than 30 years. Historically, outbreaks of FMD due to serotypes O, A, SAT1, and SAT2 were each time associated with trade of cattle entering Nigeria from neighboring countries. In the present study, tissue samples from 27 outbreaks of FMD were collected in Nigerian cattle from 2012 until 2017 in six different States and in the Federal Capital Territory. FMDV was isolated and serotyped and further characterized by VP1 sequencing and phylogenetic analysis to gain more knowledge on FMDV circulation in Nigeria. Half of the outbreaks were characterized as FMDV topotype O/EA-3, while outbreaks with other serotypes and topotypes were-in descending order-less prevalent: A/Africa/G-IV, SAT1/X, SAT2/VII, and O/WA. The high dynamics and omnipresence of FMD in Nigeria were illustrated in Plateau State where FMDV serotypes O, SAT1, and SAT2 were isolated during the course of the study, while at some point in the study, outbreaks due to FMDV serotype A were observed in three remote States. The genetic and phylogenetic analysis suggests a mixed origin of FMD outbreaks. Some outbreaks seem to be caused by sustained local transmission of FMDV strains present in Nigeria since a number of years, while other outbreaks seem to be related to recent incursions with new FMDV strains. The role of African buffaloes in the etiology of FMD in Nigeria is unclear, and sampling of wildlife is needed. The results of the present study suggest that systematic sample collection is essential to understand the complex concomitance of FMDV strains in Nigeria and essential to support the implementation of a vaccination-based control plan.

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Parameterization of the Durations of Phases of Foot-And-Mouth Disease in Cattle.

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