Dataset Information

Association of China's universal two child policy with changes in births and birth related health factors: national, descriptive comparative study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To measure the association of China's universal two child policy, announced in October 2015, with changes in births and health related birth characteristics.

Design

National, descriptive before-and-after comparative study.

Setting

Every county in 28 of 31 provinces of mainland China.

Participants

Births included in two national databases: 67?786?749 births from county level monthly aggregated data between January 2014 and December 2017; and 31?786?279 deliveries from individual level delivery information records between January 2015 and December 2017.

Main outcome measures

Monthly mean number of births and mean proportion of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over, preterm deliveries, and caesarean deliveries.

Results

The study had two phases: the baseline period (up to and including June 2016, nine months after the policy announcement) and the effective period (from July 2016 to December 2017). The estimated number of additional births attributable to the new policy between July 2016 and December 2017 was 5.40 million (95% confidence interval 4.34 to 6.46). The monthly mean percentage of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over increased by 9.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval 6.4 to 11.7) and 5.8 percentage points (5.2 to 6.4), respectively. This increase in older mothers, however, was not associated with a concurrent increase in the overall rate of preterm birth. The monthly mean caesarean delivery rate among multiparous mothers increased by 1.2 percentage points (0.8 to 1.6) from 39.7% to 40.9%, and decreased by 3.0 percentage points (-3.5 to -2.5) among nulliparous mothers from 39.6% to 36.6%.

Conclusions

Since its announcement in October 2015, the universal two child policy has been associated with a rise in births in China and with changes in health related birth characteristics: women giving birth have been more likely to be multiparous, and more likely to be aged 35 and over. No evidence of concurrent worsening outcomes (that is, premature births) was seen.

SUBMITTER: Li HT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6699592 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Association of China's universal two child policy with changes in births and birth related health factors: national, descriptive comparative study.

Li Hong-Tian HT Xue Ming M Hellerstein Susan S Cai Yue Y Gao Yanqiu Y Zhang Yali Y Qiao Jie J Blustein Jan J Liu Jian-Meng JM

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20190821

<h4>Objective</h4>To measure the association of China's universal two child policy, announced in October 2015, with changes in births and health related birth characteristics.<h4>Design</h4>National, descriptive before-and-after comparative study.<h4>Setting</h4>Every county in 28 of 31 provinces of mainland China.<h4>Participants</h4>Births included in two national databases: 67 786 749 births from county level monthly aggregated data between January 2014 and December 2017; and 31 786 279 deliv ...[more]

PMID: 31434652

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Project description:BackgroundThe universal two-child policy in China which was announced in October 2015 might affect the caesarean birth rate. Few studies reported the caesarean birth rate affected by the policy especially after the universal two-child policy period. This study aimed to demonstrate the caesarean birth rate changes before and after the universal two-child policy and further elaborate the underlying influencing factors.MethodsThis nationwide, retrospective, population-based study was based on National Free Pre-Pregnancy Check-ups Project (NFPCP). Couples planning to conceive in next 6 months were encouraged to participate in NFPCP. Baseline information was collected using a standardized questionnaire with a face-to-face interview, and medical examinations were conducted. Two rounds of follow-up interviews were then conducted by trained nurses to update pregnancy status and outcomes. NFPCP participants who completed deliveries before December 31, 2018, were included in the current study. We used marginal effect of year to examine the trend of caesarean birth rate over time and interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to determine impacts of the universal two-child policy on the trend of caesarean birth rate.ResultsA total of 9,398,045 participants were included in the final analysis. High-risk factors to increase caesarean birth rate were identified. In the current study, the standardized caesarean birth rate declined from 34.1% in 2013 to 31.8% in 2015 and increased to 35.6% in 2018. ITS analysis showed the caesarean birth rate decreased by 0.1% (95% CI 0.1-0.1) per month before the release of universal two-child policy, 1.3% (95% CI 0.6-2.1%) absolute drop during the policy release month, and increased by 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.2%) per month after the policy implementation. For the period after the policy release, the increasing trends were observed in rural participants and urban primiparas. The prevalence of caesarean birth rates within China varied regionally.ConclusionsThe decreasing trend of caesarean birth rate was reported after immediate release of the universal two-child policy. An increasing trend of caesarean birth rate was observed 2-3 years after the policy. It reminds us that the caesarean birth rate control is a long-lasting process and all the strategies need to be continually reinforced.

Project description:BACKGROUND:China implemented a partial two-child policy (2013) followed by a universal two-child policy (2015), replacing the former one-child policy mandated by the government. The changes affect many aspects of China's population as well as maternal and infant health, but their potential impact on birth defects (BDs) remains unknown. In this study, we investigated the associations of these policy changes with BDs in Zhejiang Province, China. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We used data from the BD surveillance system in Zhejiang Province, China, which covers 90 hospitals in 30 urban districts and rural counties, capturing one-third of the total births in this province. To fully consider the time interval between conception and delivery, we defined the one-child policy period as data from 2013 (births from October 2012 to September 2013), the partial two-child policy period as data from 2015 (births from October 2014 to September 2015), and the universal two-child policy period as data from 2017 (births from October 2016 to September 2017). Data from 2009 and 2011 were also used to show the changes in the proportion of births to women with advanced maternal age (35 years and older) prior to the policy changes. Main outcome measures were changes in the proportion of mothers with advanced maternal age, prevalence of BDs, rankings of BD subtypes by prevalence, prenatal diagnosis rate, and live birth rate of BDs over time. A total of 1,260,684 births (including live births, early fetal losses, stillbirths, and early neonatal deaths) were included in the analyses. Of these, 644,973 (51.16%) births were to women from urban areas, and 615,711 (48.84%) births were to women from rural areas. In total, 135,543 (10.75%) births were to women with advanced maternal age. The proportion increased by 85.68%, from 8.52% in 2013 to 15.82% in 2017. However, it had remained stable prior to policy changes. Overall, 23,095 BDs were identified over the policy changes (2013-2017). The prevalence of BDs during 2013, 2015, and 2017 was 245.95, 264.86, and 304.36 per 10,000 births, respectively. Trisomy 21 and other chromosomal defects increased in both risk and ranking from 2013 to 2017 (crude odds ratio [95% confidence interval] 2.13 [1.75-2.60], from ranking 10th to 5th, and 3.63 [2.84-4.69], from ranking 16th to 6th, respectively). The prenatal diagnosis rate increased by 3.63 (2.2-5.1) percentage points (P < 0.001), from 31.10% to 34.72%, and identification of BDs occurred 1.88 (1.81-1.95) weeks earlier (P < 0.001). The live birth rate for infants with BDs born before 28 gestational weeks increased from 1.29% to 11.45%. The major limitations of this observational study include an inability to establish causality and the possible existence of unknown confounding factors, some of which could contribute to BDs. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we observed significant increases in maternal age and the prevalence of total and age-related anomalies following China's new two-child policy. Increases in live birth rate for infants with BDs born before 28 gestational weeks suggest that healthcare for very preterm births with BDs may be warranted in the future, as well as updating the definition of perinatal period.

Project description:Aging populations, along with low fertility rates, have become a pervasive world-wide problem. To address this challenge, China issued a universal 3-child policy on May 31, 2021. However, little is known regarding the intentions of childbearing-aged Chinese for a third child. The purpose of this study was to assess the fertility intentions of the Chinese as related to this third-child policy and identify risk factors for third-child refusal. In this cross-sectional study, a total of 2129 Chinese childbearing-aged participants were recruited nationwide from June 15 to July 22, 2021. Each participant was interviewed using questionnaires to establish their sociodemographic variables, psychosocial factors as related to third-child intentions, and reasons for third-child refusal. Finally, 2115 responses (866 men and 1249 women) were analyzed. IBM SPSS Statistical Software (version 19) was used for the statistical analyses. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess independent influences for third-child refusal. Approximately 30% of these participants reported an intention for having a third child. In those expressing a refusal for a third child, women showed a higher prevalence rate (74.1 vs 63.2%, P < .001). Results from multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that age (P = .033), unemployment (P = .045), and currently raising 2 children (P = .017) were risk factors for third-child refusal among men, while age (P < .001), >15 years of education (P = .017), current smokers (P = .005) and residing in Northern China (P = .035) were risk factors for women. Overall, increased demands upon time and energy (41.5%), as well as economic burdens (41.4%), were the most prevalent reasons for the refusal of a third child, while achieving mutual care among siblings (52.5%) and reducing child educational costs (33.3%) were the most effective persuasions. In response to the 3-child policy, Chinese childbearing-aged adults showed low rates of intention for a third child, with women showing a higher prevalence of third-child refusal. The identification of risk factors and the reasons for third-child refusal as revealed from the results of this study provide a foundation for the development of programs needed to aid in the implementation of this 3-child policy.

Dataset Information

Association of China's universal two child policy with changes in births and birth related health factors: national, descriptive comparative study.

Objective

Design

Setting

Participants

Main outcome measures

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Association of China's universal two child policy with changes in births and birth related health factors: national, descriptive comparative study.

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