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Pessimistic outcome expectancy does not explain ambiguity aversion in decision-making under uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: When faced with a decision, most people like to know the odds and prefer to avoid ambiguity. It has been suggested that this aversion to ambiguity is linked to people's assumption of worst possible outcomes. We used two closely linked behavioural tasks in 78 healthy participants to investigate whether such pessimistic prior beliefs can explain ambiguity aversion. In the risk-taking task, participants had to decide whether or not they place a bet, while in the beliefs task, participants were asked what they believed would be the outcome. Unexpectedly, we found that in the beliefs task, participants were not overly pessimistic about the outcome in the ambiguity condition and in fact closer to optimal levels of decision-making than in the risk conditions. While individual differences in pessimism could explain outcome expectancy, they had no effect on ambiguity aversion. Consequently, ambiguity aversion is more likely caused by general caution than by expectation of negative outcomes despite pessimism-dependent subjective weighting of probabilities.

SUBMITTER: Ahrends C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6704180 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pessimistic outcome expectancy does not explain ambiguity aversion in decision-making under uncertainty.

Ahrends C C Bravo F F Kringelbach M L ML Vuust P P Rohrmeier M A MA

Scientific reports 20190821 1

When faced with a decision, most people like to know the odds and prefer to avoid ambiguity. It has been suggested that this aversion to ambiguity is linked to people's assumption of worst possible outcomes. We used two closely linked behavioural tasks in 78 healthy participants to investigate whether such pessimistic prior beliefs can explain ambiguity aversion. In the risk-taking task, participants had to decide whether or not they place a bet, while in the beliefs task, participants were aske ...[more]

PMID: 31434966

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Project description:ObjectiveNumerous studies have identified impaired decision making (DM) under both ambiguity and risk in adult patients with schizophrenia. However, the assessment of DM in patients with adolescent-onset schizophrenia (AOS) has been challenging as a result of the instability and heterogeneity of manifestations. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Game of Dice Task (GDT), which are frequently used to evaluate DM respectively under ambiguity and risk, are sensitive to adolescents and neuropsychiatric patients. Our research intended to examine the performance of DM in a relatively large sample of patients with AOS using the above-mentioned two tasks. We also aimed to take a closer look at the relationship between DM and symptom severity of schizophrenia.MethodsWe compared the performance of DM in 71 patients with AOS and 53 well-matched healthy controls using IGT for DM under ambiguity and GDT for DM under risk through net scores, total scores and feedback ration. Neuropsychological tests were conducted in all participants. Clinical symptoms were evaluated by using Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) in 71 patients with AOS. Pearson's correlation revealed the relationship among total score of DM and clinical and neuropsychological data.ResultsCompared to healthy controls, patients with AOS failed to show learning effect and had a significant difference on the 5th block in IGT and conducted more disadvantageous choices as well as exhibited worse negative feedback rate in GDT. Apart from DM impairment under risk, diminished DM abilities under ambiguity were found related to poor executive function in AOS in the present study.ConclusionsOur findings unveiled the abnormal pattern of DM in AOS, mainly reflected under the risky condition, extending the knowledge on the performance of DM under ambiguity and risk in AOS. Inefficient DM under risk may account for the lagging impulse control and the combined effects of developmental disease. In addition, our study demonstrated that the performance on IGT was related to executive function in AOS.

Dataset Information

Pessimistic outcome expectancy does not explain ambiguity aversion in decision-making under uncertainty.

Publications

Pessimistic outcome expectancy does not explain ambiguity aversion in decision-making under uncertainty.

Similar Datasets

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