Dataset Information

Predictive factors for the mortality of acute pancreatitis on admission.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

The revised Atlanta classification is widely used for the evaluation of acute pancreatitis (AP) severity. However, this classification cannot be used within 48 hours of AP onset. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive factors of mortality in patients with AP on admission.

Methods

We evaluated the association between AP mortality and clinical parameters at the time of admission in patients with AP from April 2013 to December 2017 at one university hospital and one tertiary care referral center.

Results

A total of 203 consecutive patients were enrolled. Nine patients (4.4%) died despite multidisciplinary treatment. In a multivariable analysis, hematocrit ? 40% (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.13; P = 0.021), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) ? 40 mg/dL (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.11-1.42; P < 0.001), base excess < -3.0 mmol/L (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.04-1.26; P = 0.004), and inflammation extending to the rectovesical excavation (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.10-1.30; P < 0.001) on admission were significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusion

Among the imaging findings, inflammation extending to the rectovesical excavation was the only independent predictive factor for mortality in AP. This simple finding, obtained on computed tomography without contrast agent on admission, might be a promising prognostic factor for AP.

SUBMITTER: Jinno N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6706052 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predictive factors for the mortality of acute pancreatitis on admission.

Jinno Naruomi N Hori Yasuki Y Naitoh Itaru I Miyabe Katsuyuki K Yoshida Michihiro M Natsume Makoto M Kato Akihisa A Asano Go G Sano Hitoshi H Hayashi Kazuki K

PloS one 20190822 8

<h4>Background and aims</h4>The revised Atlanta classification is widely used for the evaluation of acute pancreatitis (AP) severity. However, this classification cannot be used within 48 hours of AP onset. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive factors of mortality in patients with AP on admission.<h4>Methods</h4>We evaluated the association between AP mortality and clinical parameters at the time of admission in patients with AP from April 2013 to December 2017 at one universi ...[more]

PMID: 31437218

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Project description:BackgroundAcute necrotizing pancreatitis (NP), a severe form of acute pancreatitis (AP), has higher mortality and worse outcome than non-necrotizing pancreatitis (non-NP). Infected NP is a devastating subgroup of NP. To date neither NP nor infected NP has robust prediction strategies, which may delay early recognition and timely intervention. Recent studies revealed correlations between disturbed gut microbiota and AP severity. Some features of intestinal microbiota have the potential to become biomarkers for NP prediction.MethodsWe performed 16S rRNA sequencing to analyze gut microbiota features in 20 healthy controls (HC), and 58 AP patients on hospital admission. The AP patients were later classified into NP and non-NP groups based on subsequent diagnostic imaging features. Random forest regression model and ROC curve were applied for NP and infected NP prediction. PIRCUSt2 was used for bacterial functional pathway prediction analysis.ResultsWe found that the three groups (HC, NP, and non-NP) had distinct microorganism composition. NP patients had reduced microbial diversity, higher abundance of Enterobacteriales, but lower abundance of Clostridiales and Bacteroidales compared with the non-NP group. Correlation analyses displayed that intestine bacterial taxonomic alterations were related to severity, ICU admission, and prognosis. By pathway prediction, species more abundant in NP patients had positive correlation with synthesis and degradation of ketone bodies, and benzoate degradation. Enterococcus faecium (ASV2) performed best in discriminating NP and non-NP patients. Finegoldia magna (ASV3) showed the maximal prediction capacity among all ASVs and had comparable accuracy with Balthazar CT to detect patients with infected NP.ConclusionsOur study suggests that NP patients have distinct intestinal microbiota on admission compared to non-NP patients. Dysbiosis of intestinal microbiota might influence NP progression through ketone body or benzoate metabolism. Enterococcus faecium and Finegoldia magna are potential predictors for NP and infected NP. Our findings explore biomarkers which may inform clinical decision-making in AP and shed light on further studies on NP pathophysiology and management.

Project description:IntroductionPediatric acute pancreatitis (PAP) has an increasing incidence and is now estimated to be almost as common as in adults. Up to 30% of patients with PAP will develop moderate or severe disease course (M/SPAP), characterized by organ failure, local or systemic complications. There is still no consensus regarding on-admission severity prediction in these patients. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of available predictive score systems and parameters, and differences between on-admission parameters in mild and M/SPAP.MethodsWe conducted a systematic search on the 14th February, 2022 in MEDLINE, Embase and CENTRAL. We performed random-effects meta-analysis of on-admission differences between mild and M/SPAP in laboratory parameters, etiology, demographic factors, etc. calculating risk ratios (RR) or mean differences (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and created forest plots. For the meta-analysis of predictive score systems, we generated hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves using a bivariate model. Chi-squared tests were performed and I2 values calculated to assess statistical heterogeneity.ResultsWe included 44 studies - mostly retrospective cohorts - in our review. Among predictive score systems examined by at least 5 studies, the modified Glasgow scale had the highest specificity (91.5% for values ≥3), and the Pediatric Acute Pancreatitis Severity score the highest sensitivity (63.1% for values ≥3). The performance of other proposed score systems and values were summarized. Traumatic (RR: 1.70 95% CI: 1.09-2.67) and drug-induced (RR: 1.33 95% CI: 0.98-1.87) etiologies were associated with a higher rate of M/SPAP, while anatomical (RR: 0.6195% CI: 0.38-0.96) and biliary (RR: 0.72 95% CI: 0.53-0.99) PAP tended to be less severe.DiscussionMany predictive score systems were proposed to assess the possibility of M/SPAP course. The most commonly used ones exhibit good specificity, but subpar sensitivity. Our systematic review provides a rigorous overview of predictive options assessed thus far, that can serve as a basis for future improvement of scores via the addition of parameters with a better observed sensitivity: e.g., lipase exceeding 7-times the upper threshold, hemoglobin, etc. The addition of etiological factors is another possibility, as they can herald a more severe disease course.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=307271, PROSPERO, identifier: CRD42022307271.

Dataset Information

Predictive factors for the mortality of acute pancreatitis on admission.

Background and aims

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Predictive factors for the mortality of acute pancreatitis on admission.

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