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Investigating causal pathways in severe falciparum malaria: A pooled retrospective analysis of clinical studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Severe falciparum malaria is a medical emergency characterised by potentially lethal vital organ dysfunction. Patient fatality rates even with parenteral artesunate treatment remain high. Despite considerable research into adjuvant therapies targeting organ and tissue dysfunction, none have shown efficacy apart from renal replacement therapy. Understanding the causal contributions of clinical and laboratory abnormalities to mortality is essential for the design and evaluation of novel therapeutic interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We used a structural model causal inference approach to investigate causal relationships between epidemiological, laboratory, and clinical variables in patients with severe falciparum malaria enrolled in clinical trials and their in-hospital mortality. Under this causal model, we analysed records from 9,040 hospitalised children (0-12 years, n = 5,635) and adults (n = 3,405, 12-87 years) with severe falciparum malaria from 15 countries in Africa and Asia who were studied prospectively over the past 35 years. On admission, patient covariates associated with increased in-hospital mortality were severity of acidosis (odds ratio [OR] 2.10 for a 7-mEq/L increase in base deficit [95% CI 1.93-2.28]), renal impairment (OR 1.71 for a 2-fold increase in blood urea nitrogen [95% CI 1.58, 1.86]), coma (OR 3.59 [95% CI 3.07-4.21]), seizures (OR 1.40 [95% CI 1.16-1.68]), shock (OR 1.51 [95% CI 1.14-1.99]), and presumed pulmonary oedema (OR 1.58 [95% CI 1.04-2.39]). Lower in-hospital mortality was associated with moderate anaemia (OR 0.87 for a decrease of 10 percentage points in haematocrit [95% CI 0.80-0.95]). Circulating parasite density was not associated with mortality (OR 1.02 for a 6-fold increase [95% CI 0.94-1.11]), so the pathological effects of parasitaemia appear to be mediated entirely by the downstream effects of sequestration. Treatment with an artemisinin derivative decreased mortality compared with quinine (OR 0.64 [95% CI 0.56-0.74]). These estimates were consistent across children and adults (mainly representing African and Asian patients, respectively). Using inverse probability weighting, transfusion was not estimated to be beneficial in children with admission haematocrit values between 15% and 25% (OR 0.99 [95% CI 0.97-1.02]). Except for the effects of artemisinin treatment and transfusion, causal interpretations of these estimates could be biased by unmeasured confounding from severe bacterial sepsis, immunity, and duration of illness. CONCLUSION:These data suggest that moderate anaemia is associated with a reduced risk of death in severe falciparum malaria. This is possibly a direct causal association. The severe anaemia threshold criteria for a definition of severe falciparum malaria should be reconsidered.

SUBMITTER: Leopold SJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6707545 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Investigating causal pathways in severe falciparum malaria: A pooled retrospective analysis of clinical studies.

Leopold Stije J SJ Watson James A JA Jeeyapant Atthanee A Simpson Julie A JA Phu Nguyen H NH Hien Tran T TT Day Nicholas P J NPJ Dondorp Arjen M AM White Nicholas J NJ

PLoS medicine 20190823 8

<h4>Background</h4>Severe falciparum malaria is a medical emergency characterised by potentially lethal vital organ dysfunction. Patient fatality rates even with parenteral artesunate treatment remain high. Despite considerable research into adjuvant therapies targeting organ and tissue dysfunction, none have shown efficacy apart from renal replacement therapy. Understanding the causal contributions of clinical and laboratory abnormalities to mortality is essential for the design and evaluation ...[more]

PMID: 31442221

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Project description:BackgroundClinical trials in severe falciparum malaria require a large sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in mortality. This means few interventions can be evaluated at any time. Using a validated surrogate endpoint for mortality would provide a useful alternative allowing a smaller sample size. Here we evaluate changes in coma score and plasma lactate as surrogate endpoints for mortality in severe falciparum malaria.MethodsThree datasets of clinical studies in severe malaria were re-evaluated: studies from Chittagong, Bangladesh (adults), the African 'AQUAMAT' trial comparing artesunate and quinine (children), and the Vietnamese 'AQ' study (adults) comparing artemether with quinine. The absolute change, relative change, slope of the normalization over time, and time to normalization were derived from sequential measurements of plasma lactate and coma score, and validated for their use as surrogate endpoint, including the proportion of treatment effect on mortality explained (PTE) by these surrogate measures.ResultsImprovements in lactate concentration or coma scores over the first 24 hours of admission, were strongly prognostic for survival in all datasets. In hyperlactataemic patients in the AQ study (n = 173), lower mortality with artemether compared to quinine closely correlated with faster reduction in plasma lactate concentration, with a high PTE of the relative change in plasma lactate at 8 and 12 hours of 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. In paediatric patients enrolled in the 'AQUAMAT' study with cerebral malaria (n = 785), mortality was lower with artesunate compared to quinine, but this was not associated with faster coma recovery.ConclusionsThe relative changes in plasma lactate concentration assessed at 8 or 12 hours after admission are valid surrogate endpoints for severe malaria studies on antimalarial drugs or adjuvant treatments aiming at improving the microcirculation. Measures of coma recovery are not valid surrogate endpoints for mortality.

Project description:BackgroundSevere malaria in pregnancy causes maternal mortality, morbidity, and adverse foetal outcomes. The factors contributing to adverse maternal and foetal outcomes are not well defined. We aimed to identify the factors predicting higher maternal mortality and to describe the foetal mortality and morbidity associated with severe falciparum malaria in pregnancy.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted of severe falciparum malaria in pregnancy, as defined by the World Health Organization severe malaria criteria. The patients were managed prospectively by the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit (SMRU) on the Thailand-Myanmar border or were included in hospital-based clinical trials in six Southeast Asian countries. Fixed-effects multivariable penalised logistic regression was used for analysing maternal mortality.ResultsWe included 213 (123 SMRU and 90 hospital-based) episodes of severe falciparum malaria in pregnancy managed between 1980 and 2020. The mean maternal age was 25.7 (SD 6.8) years, and the mean gestational age was 25.6 (SD 8.9) weeks. The overall maternal mortality was 12.2% (26/213). Coma (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 7.18, 95% CI 2.01-25.57, p = 0.0002), hypotension (aOR 11.21, 95%CI 1.27-98.92, p = 0.03) and respiratory failure (aOR 4.98, 95%CI 1.13-22.01, p = 0.03) were associated with maternal mortality. Pregnant women with one or more of these three criteria had a mortality of 29.1% (25/86) (95%CI 19.5 to 38.7%) whereas there were no deaths in 88 pregnant women with hyperparasitaemia (> 10% parasitised erythrocytes) only or severe anaemia (haematocrit < 20%) only. In the SMRU prospective cohort, in which the pregnant women were followed up until delivery, the risks of foetal loss (23.3% by Kaplan-Meier estimator, 25/117) and small-for-gestational-age (38.3%, 23/60) after severe malaria were high. Maternal death, foetal loss and preterm birth occurred commonly within a week of diagnosis of severe malaria.ConclusionsVital organ dysfunction in pregnant women with severe malaria was associated with a very high maternal and foetal mortality whereas severe anaemia or hyperparasitaemia alone were not associated with poor prognosis, which may explain the variation of reported mortality from severe malaria in pregnancy. Access to antenatal care must be promoted to reduce barriers to early diagnosis and treatment of both malaria and anaemia.

Project description:BackgroundP. falciparum malaria has been recognized as one of the prominent evolutionary selective forces of human genome that led to the emergence of multiple host protective alleles. A comprehensive understanding of the genetic bases of severe malaria susceptibility and resistance can potentially pave ways to the development of new therapeutics and vaccines. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have recently been implemented in malaria endemic areas and identified a number of novel association genetic variants. However, there are several open questions around heritability, epistatic interactions, genetic correlations and associated molecular pathways among others. Here, we assess the progress and pitfalls of severe malaria susceptibility GWASs and discuss the biology of the novel variants.ResultsWe obtained all severe malaria susceptibility GWASs published thus far and accessed GWAS dataset of Gambian populations from European Phenome Genome Archive (EGA) through the MalariaGen consortium standard data access protocols. We noticed that, while some of the well-known variants including HbS and ABO blood group were replicated across endemic populations, only few novel variants were convincingly identified and their biological functions remain to be understood. We estimated SNP-heritability of severe malaria at 20.1% in Gambian populations and showed how advanced statistical genetic analytic methods can potentially be implemented in malaria susceptibility studies to provide useful functional insights.ConclusionsThe ultimate goal of malaria susceptibility study is to discover a novel causal biological pathway that provide protections against severe malaria; a fundamental step towards translational medicine such as development of vaccine and new therapeutics. Beyond singe locus analysis, the future direction of malaria susceptibility requires a paradigm shift from single -omics to multi-stage and multi-dimensional integrative functional studies that combines multiple data types from the human host, the parasite, the mosquitoes and the environment. The current biotechnological and statistical advances may eventually lead to the feasibility of systems biology studies and revolutionize malaria research.

Project description:BackgroundDelay in receiving treatment for uncomplicated malaria (UM) is often reported to increase the risk of developing severe malaria (SM), but access to treatment remains low in most high-burden areas. Understanding the contribution of treatment delay on progression to severe disease is critical to determine how quickly patients need to receive treatment and to quantify the impact of widely implemented treatment interventions, such as 'test-and-treat' policies administered by community health workers (CHWs). We conducted a pooled individual-participant meta-analysis to estimate the association between treatment delay and presenting with SM.Methods and findingsA search using Ovid MEDLINE and Embase was initially conducted to identify studies on severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria that included information on treatment delay, such as fever duration (inception to 22nd September 2017). Studies identified included 5 case-control and 8 other observational clinical studies of SM and UM cases. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and all studies were ranked as 'Good', scoring ≥7/10. Individual-patient data (IPD) were pooled from 13 studies of 3,989 (94.1% aged <15 years) SM patients and 5,780 (79.6% aged <15 years) UM cases in Benin, Malaysia, Mozambique, Tanzania, The Gambia, Uganda, Yemen, and Zambia. Definitions of SM were standardised across studies to compare treatment delay in patients with UM and different SM phenotypes using age-adjusted mixed-effects regression. The odds of any SM phenotype were significantly higher in children with longer delays between initial symptoms and arrival at the health facility (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.07-1.64 for a delay of >24 hours versus ≤24 hours; p = 0.009). Reported illness duration was a strong predictor of presenting with severe malarial anaemia (SMA) in children, with an OR of 2.79 (95% CI:1.92-4.06; p < 0.001) for a delay of 2-3 days and 5.46 (95% CI: 3.49-8.53; p < 0.001) for a delay of >7 days, compared with receiving treatment within 24 hours from symptom onset. We estimate that 42.8% of childhood SMA cases and 48.5% of adult SMA cases in the study areas would have been averted if all individuals were able to access treatment within the first day of symptom onset, if the association is fully causal. In studies specifically recording onset of nonsevere symptoms, long treatment delay was moderately associated with other SM phenotypes (OR [95% CI] >3 to ≤4 days versus ≤24 hours: cerebral malaria [CM] = 2.42 [1.24-4.72], p = 0.01; respiratory distress syndrome [RDS] = 4.09 [1.70-9.82], p = 0.002). In addition to unmeasured confounding, which is commonly present in observational studies, a key limitation is that many severe cases and deaths occur outside healthcare facilities in endemic countries, where the effect of delayed or no treatment is difficult to quantify.ConclusionsOur results quantify the relationship between rapid access to treatment and reduced risk of severe disease, which was particularly strong for SMA. There was some evidence to suggest that progression to other severe phenotypes may also be prevented by prompt treatment, though the association was not as strong, which may be explained by potential selection bias, sample size issues, or a difference in underlying pathology. These findings may help assess the impact of interventions that improve access to treatment.

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Investigating causal pathways in severe falciparum malaria: A pooled retrospective analysis of clinical studies.

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Investigating causal pathways in severe falciparum malaria: A pooled retrospective analysis of clinical studies.

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