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Integrating social behaviour, demography and disease dynamics in network models: applications to disease management in declining wildlife populations.

ABSTRACT: The emergence and spread of infections can contribute to the decline and extinction of populations, particularly in conjunction with anthropogenic environmental change. The importance of heterogeneity in processes of transmission, resistance and tolerance is increasingly well understood in theory, but empirical studies that consider both the demographic and behavioural implications of infection are scarce. Non-random mixing of host individuals can impact the demographic thresholds that determine the amplification or attenuation of disease prevalence. Risk assessment and management of disease in threatened wildlife populations must therefore consider not just host density, but also the social structure of host populations. Here we integrate the most recent developments in epidemiological research from a demographic and social network perspective, and synthesize the latest developments in social network modelling for wildlife disease, to explore their applications to disease management in populations in decline and at risk of extinction. We use simulated examples to support our key points and reveal how disease-management strategies can and should exploit both behavioural and demographic information to prevent or control the spread of disease. Our synthesis highlights the importance of considering the combined impacts of demographic and behavioural processes in epidemics to successful disease management in a conservation context. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

SUBMITTER: Silk MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6710568 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Integrating social behaviour, demography and disease dynamics in network models: applications to disease management in declining wildlife populations.

Silk Matthew J MJ Hodgson David J DJ Rozins Carly C Croft Darren P DP Delahay Richard J RJ Boots Mike M McDonald Robbie A RA

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20190729 1781

The emergence and spread of infections can contribute to the decline and extinction of populations, particularly in conjunction with anthropogenic environmental change. The importance of heterogeneity in processes of transmission, resistance and tolerance is increasingly well understood in theory, but empirical studies that consider both the demographic and behavioural implications of infection are scarce. Non-random mixing of host individuals can impact the demographic thresholds that determine ...[more]

PMID: 31352885

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Project description:1. Understanding the demography of domestic dog populations is essential for effective disease control, particularly of canine-mediated rabies. Demographic data are also needed to plan effective population management. However, no study has comprehensively evaluated the contribution of demographic processes (i.e. births, deaths and movement) to variations in dog population size or density, or determined the factors that regulate these processes, including human factors. 2. We report the results of a 3-year cohort study of domestic dogs, which is the first to generate detailed data on the temporal variation of these demographic characteristics. The study was undertaken in two communities in each of Bali, Indonesia and Johannesburg, South Africa, in rabies-endemic areas and where the majority of dogs were free-roaming. None of the four communities had been engaged in any dog population management interventions by local authorities or animal welfare organizations. All identified dogs in the four communities were monitored individually throughout the study. 3. We observed either no population growth or a progressive decline in population size during the study period. There was no clear evidence that population size was regulated through environmental resource constraints. Rather, almost all of the identified dogs were owned and fed regularly by their owners, consistent with population size regulated by human demand. Finally, a substantial fraction of the dogs originated from outside the population, entirely through the translocation of dogs by people, rather than from local births. These findings demonstrate that previously reported growth of dog populations is not a general phenomenon and challenge the widely held view that free-roaming dogs are unowned and form closed populations. 4.Synthesis and applications. These observations have broad implications for disease and population control. The accessibility of dogs for vaccination and evaluation through owners and the movement of dogs (some of them infected) by people will determine the viable options for disease control strategies. The impact of human factors on population dynamics will also influence the feasibility of annual vaccination campaigns to control rabies and population control through culling or sterilization. The complex relationship between dogs and people is critically important in the transmission and control of canine-mediated rabies. For effective management, human factors must be considered in the development of disease and population control programmes.

Project description:Managing wildlife populations for conservation, control or harvesting involves uncertainty. Nevertheless, decisions need to be made based on the available evidence. The two main sources of uncertainty in population modelling are parameter estimates and structural uncertainty. Structural uncertainty in models is not included as often as parameter uncertainty.We present an approach where parameter and structural uncertainty (strength of density dependence) is included within a model, using the over-wintering English population of cormorants Phalacrocorax carbo L. Because of the damage caused to inland fishery interests by cormorants, there was a change in UK government policy in autumn 2004, increasing the numbers of birds that can be shot under licence.A stochastic Monte Carlo annual population model was produced to examine the effect of changes to the numbers of birds shot each year. Indices of annual population size were converted to population estimates and used to determine annual growth rates and strength of density dependence.There is strong evidence for density dependence in the data, which suggests the population is currently slightly above carrying capacity, with a mean growth rate of 4-6% per annum. The 1300 birds shot under licence in 2004/05 represent about 4.5% of the English population, and if this level of culling continues, the population would be expected to decline by 9% by 2007, compared to the long-term average. The a priori preferred model, which included all uncertainty, gave predictions for 2004/05 and 2005/06 in close agreement with field data.The model was used to produce short-term population projections, with the understanding that Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) will be adopted to iteratively update the parameters and model each year, feeding back into the numbers of available licences.Synthesis and applications. We recommend the approach used in this study of including parameter and structural uncertainty within a single model, where possible, with the proportion of iterations that utilize a particular structure dependent on the weight of evidence for that structure. This will produce results with wider confidence intervals, but ensures that the evidence for any particular model is not over-interpreted.

Dataset Information

Integrating social behaviour, demography and disease dynamics in network models: applications to disease management in declining wildlife populations.

Publications

Integrating social behaviour, demography and disease dynamics in network models: applications to disease management in declining wildlife populations.

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