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What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts.

ABSTRACT: Pathogen circulation among reservoir hosts is a precondition for zoonotic spillover. Unlike the acute, high morbidity infections typical in spillover hosts, infected reservoir hosts often exhibit low morbidity and mortality. Although it has been proposed that reservoir host infections may be persistent with recurrent episodes of shedding, direct evidence is often lacking. We construct a generalized SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) framework encompassing 46 sub-models representing the full range of possible transitions among those four states of infection and immunity. We then use likelihood-based methods to fit these models to nine years of longitudinal data on henipavirus serology from a captive colony of Eidolon helvum bats in Ghana. We find that reinfection is necessary to explain observed dynamics; that acute infectious periods may be very short (hours to days); that immunity, if present, lasts about 1-2 years; and that recurring latent infection is likely. Although quantitative inference is sensitive to assumptions about serology, qualitative predictions are robust. Our novel approach helps clarify mechanisms of viral persistence and circulation in wild bats, including estimated ranges for key parameters such as the basic reproduction number and the duration of the infectious period. Our results inform how future field-based and experimental work could differentiate the processes of viral recurrence and reinfection in reservoir hosts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

SUBMITTER: Glennon EE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6711305 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts.

Glennon Emma E EE Becker Daniel J DJ Peel Alison J AJ Garnier Romain R Suu-Ire Richard D RD Gibson Louise L Hayman David T S DTS Wood James L N JLN Cunningham Andrew A AA Plowright Raina K RK Restif Olivier O

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20190812 1782

Pathogen circulation among reservoir hosts is a precondition for zoonotic spillover. Unlike the acute, high morbidity infections typical in spillover hosts, infected reservoir hosts often exhibit low morbidity and mortality. Although it has been proposed that reservoir host infections may be persistent with recurrent episodes of shedding, direct evidence is often lacking. We construct a generalized SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) framework encompassing 46 sub-models representi ...[more]

PMID: 31401962

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Project description:Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV) are biosafety level 4 zoonotic pathogens causing severe and often fatal neurological and respiratory disease. These agents have been recognized by the World Health Organization as top priority pathogens expected to result in severe future outbreaks. HeV has caused sporadic infections in horses and a small number of human cases in Australia since 1994. The NiV Malaysia genotype (NiV-M) was responsible for the 1998-1999 epizootic outbreak in pigs with spillover to humans in Malaysia and Singapore. Since 2001, the NiV Bangladesh genotype (NiV-B) has been the predominant strain leading to outbreaks almost every year in Bangladesh and India, with hundreds of infections in humans. The natural reservoir hosts of HeV and NiV are fruit bats, which carry the viruses without clinical manifestation. The transmission pathways of henipaviruses from bats to humans remain poorly understood. Transmissions are often bridged by an intermediate animal host, which amplifies and spreads the viruses to humans. Horses and pigs are known intermediate hosts for the HeV outbreaks in Australia and NiV-M epidemic in Malaysia and Singapore, respectively. During the NiV-B outbreaks in Bangladesh, following initial spillover thought to be through the consumption of date palm sap, the spread of infection was largely human-to-human transmission. Spillover of NiV-B in recent outbreaks in India is less understood, with the primary route of transmission from bat reservoir to the initial human infection case(s) unknown and no intermediate host established. This review aims to provide a concise update on the epidemiology of henipaviruses covering their previous and current outbreaks with emphasis on the known and potential role of livestock as intermediate hosts in disease transmission. Also included is an up-to-date summary of newly emerging henipa-like viruses and animal hosts. In these contexts we discuss knowledge gaps and new challenges in the field and propose potential future directions.

Dataset Information

What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts.

Publications

What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts.

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