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Prognostic model of survival outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer patients initiated on afatinib: pooled analysis of clinical trial data.

ABSTRACT: Objective:Several predictors of survival have been identified in EGFR-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with first generation EGFR inhibitors. Prognostic models of survival outcomes with afatinib have not been evaluated. Methods:A prognostic tool for overall survival (OS)/ progression free survival (PFS) based on pre-treatment clinicopathological factors was developed for EGFR-positive advanced NSCLC patients treated with first-line afatinib using penalised regression of individual-participant data from LUX-Lung 3 and 6 (n = 468). Favourable, intermediate and poor risk groups were identified and externally validated using LUX-Lung 1 (n = 390) and LUX-Lung 2 (n = 129) trials that initiated afatinib following previous chemotherapy or EGFR inhibitor treatment. Results:Discriminative performance was good in the development and validation cohorts. For patients treated with first-line afatinib, the median OS for the favourable, intermediate and poor risk groups were > 47.7, 29.3 and 16.4 months, respectively, and the median PFS were 17.3, 13.2 and 8.3 months, respectively. The improvement in median OS with afatinib use compared to chemotherapy was > 12.4 months for the favourable risk group, whereas no OS benefit was apparent for the poor risk group. The improvement in median PFS with afatinib use compared to chemotherapy was 10.2 months for the favourable risk group and 3.2 months for the poor risk group. Conclusions:A prognostic tool was developed and validated to identify favourable, intermediate and poor risk groups for OS/PFS in EGFR-positive advanced NSCLC patients treated with afatinib. The prognostic groups can inform the likely absolute OS/PFS benefit expected from afatinib compared to chemotherapy in first-line treatment.

SUBMITTER: Hopkins AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6713630 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic model of survival outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer patients initiated on afatinib: pooled analysis of clinical trial data.

Hopkins Ashley M AM Shahnam Adel A Zhang Sasha S Karapetis Chris S CS Rowland Andrew A Sorich Michael J MJ

Cancer biology & medicine 20190501 2

<h4>Objective</h4>Several predictors of survival have been identified in EGFR-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with first generation EGFR inhibitors. Prognostic models of survival outcomes with afatinib have not been evaluated.<h4>Methods</h4>A prognostic tool for overall survival (OS)/ progression free survival (PFS) based on pre-treatment clinicopathological factors was developed for EGFR-positive advanced NSCLC patients treated with first-line afatinib using penali ...[more]

PMID: 31516754

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Project description:Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death, and >80% of lung cancer diagnoses are non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, when using current staging and prognostic indices, the prognosis can vary significantly. In the present study, we calculated a prognostic index for predicting overall survival (OS) in NSCLC patients. The data of 545 NSCLC patients were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of clinicopathological factors. Age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.54), TNM stage (III, HR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.08-2.48; IV, HR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.48-3.69), lung lobectomy (HR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.45-2.66), chemotherapy (HR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.15-1.74), and pretreatment hemoglobin level (HR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.28-2.02) were independent prognosticators. A prognostic index for NSCLC (PInscl, 0-6 points) was calculated based on age (≥65 years, 1 point), tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage (III, 1 point; IV, 2 points), lung lobectomy (no, 1 point), chemotherapy (no, 1 point), and pretreatment hemoglobin level (low, 1 point). In comparison with the "PInscl = 0" subgroup (survival time = 2.71 ± 1.86 years), the "PInscl = 2" subgroup (survival time = 1.86 ± 1.24 years), "PInscl = 3" subgroup (survival time = 1.45 ± 1.07 years), "PInscl = 4" subgroup (survival time = 1.17 ± 1.06 years), "PInscl = 5" subgroup (survival time = 0.81 ± 0.78 years), and "PInscl = 6" subgroup (survival time = 0.65 ± 0.56 years) exhibited significantly shorter survival times. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patients with higher PInscl scores had poorer OS than those with lower scores (log-rank test: χ2 = 155.82, P < 0.0001). The area under the curve of PInscl for predicting the 1-year OS was 0.73 (95 % CI = 0.69-0.77, P < 0.001), and the PInscl had a better diagnostic performance than the Karnofsky performance status or TNM stage (P < 0.01). In conclusion, the PInscl, which is calculated from age, TNM stage, lung lobectomy, chemotherapy, and pretreatment hemoglobin level, significantly predicted OS in NSCLC patients.

Dataset Information

Prognostic model of survival outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer patients initiated on afatinib: pooled analysis of clinical trial data.

Publications

Prognostic model of survival outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer patients initiated on afatinib: pooled analysis of clinical trial data.

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