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The REDS score: a new scoring system to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis: a derivation and validation study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To derive and validate a new clinical prediction rule to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients admitted with suspected sepsis. DESIGN:Retrospective prognostic study of prospectively collected data. SETTING:ED. PARTICIPANTS:Patients aged ?18 years who met two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria or one Red Flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE:In-hospital all-cause mortality. METHOD:The data were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The simplified-Mortality in Severe Sepsis in the ED score and quick-SOFA scores, refractory hypotension and lactate were collectively termed 'component scores' and cumulatively termed the 'Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score'. Each patient in the derivation cohort received a score (0-3) for each component score. The REDS score ranged from 0 to 12. The component scores were subject to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the REDS and the components scores were constructed and their cut-off points identified. Scores above the cut-off points were deemed high-risk. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curves and sensitivity for mortality of the high-risk category of the REDS score and component scores were compared. The REDS score was internally validated. RESULTS:2115 patients of whom 282 (13.3%) died in hospital. Derivation cohort: 1078 patients with 140 deaths (13%). The AUROC curve with 95% CI, cut-off point and sensitivity for mortality (95% CI) of the high-risk category of the REDS score were: derivation: 0.78 (0.75 to 0.80); ?3; 85.0 (78 to 90.5). VALIDATION:0.74 (0.71 to 0.76); ?3; 84.5 (77.5 to 90.0). The AUROC curve and the sensitivity for mortality of the REDS score was better than that of the component scores. Specificity and mortality rates for REDS scores of ?3, ?5 and ?7 were 54.8%, 88.8% and 96.9% and 21.8%, 36.0% and 49.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION:The REDS score is a simple and objective score to risk-stratify ED patients with suspected sepsis.

SUBMITTER: Sivayoham N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6720479 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The REDS score: a new scoring system to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis: a derivation and validation study.

Sivayoham Narani N Blake Lesley A LA Tharimoopantavida Shafi E SE Chughtai Saad S Hussain Adil N AN Cecconi Maurizio M Rhodes Andrew A

BMJ open 20190826 8

<h4>Objective</h4>To derive and validate a new clinical prediction rule to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients admitted with suspected sepsis.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective prognostic study of prospectively collected data.<h4>Setting</h4>ED.<h4>Participants</h4>Patients aged ≥18 years who met two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria or one Red Flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted.<h4>Primary outcome measur ...[more]

PMID: 31455715

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Project description:BackgroundPrehospital recognition of sepsis may inform case management by ambulance clinicians, as well as inform transport decisions. The objective of this study was to develop a prehospital sepsis screening tool for use by ambulance clinicians.MethodsWe derived and validated a sepsis screening tool, utilising univariable logistic regression models to identify predictors for inclusion, and multivariable logistic regression to generate the SEPSIS score. We utilised a retrospective cohort of adult patients transported by ambulance (n?=?38483) to hospital between 01 July 2013 and 30 June 2014. Records were linked using LinkPlus® software. Successful linkage was achieved in 33289 cases (86%). Eligible patients included adult, non-trauma, non-mental health, non-cardiac arrest cases. Of 33289 linked cases, 22945 cases were eligible. Eligible cases were divided into derivation (n?=?16063, 70%) and validation (n?=?6882, 30%) cohorts. The primary outcome measure was high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis, as defined by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Sepsis guideline.Results'High risk of severe illness or death from sepsis' was present in 3.7% of derivation (n?=?593) and validation (n?=?254) cohorts. The SEPSIS score comprises the following variables: age, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturations, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, temperature and level of consciousness (p?<?0.001 for all variables). Area under the curve was 0.87 (95%CI 0.85-0.88) for the derivation cohort, and 0.86 (95%CI 0.84-0.88) for the validation cohort. In an undifferentiated adult medical population, for a SEPSIS score???5, sensitivity was 0.37 (0.31-0.44), specificity was 0.96 (0.96-0.97), positive predictive value was 0.27 (0.23-0.32), negative predictive value was 0.97 (0.96-0.97), positive likelihood value was 13.5 (9.7-18.73) and the negative likelihood value was 0.83 (0.78-0.88).ConclusionThis is the first screening tool developed to identify NICE high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis. The SEPSIS score is significantly associated with high risk of severe illness or death from sepsis on arrival at the Emergency Department. It may assist ambulance clinicians to identify those patients with sepsis in need of antibiotic therapy. However, it requires external validation, in clinical practice by ambulance clinicians, in an independent population.

Project description:PURPOSE:Sepsis is a common acute life-threatening condition that emergency physicians routinely face. Diagnostic options within the Emergency Department (ED) are limited due to lack of infrastructure, consequently limiting the use of invasive hemodynamic monitoring or imaging tests. The mortality rate due to sepsis can be assessed via multiple scoring systems, for example, mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score and sepsis patient evaluation in the emergency department (SPEED) score, both of which quantify the variation of mortality rates according to clinical findings, laboratory data, or therapeutic interventions. This study aims to improve the management processes of sepsis patients by comparing SPEED score and MEDS score for predicting the 28-day mortality in cases of emergency sepsis. METHODS:The study is a cross-sectional, prospective study including 61 sepsis patients in ED in Suez Canal University Hospital, Egypt, from August 2017 to June 2018. Patients were selected by two steps: (1) suspected septic patients presenting with at least one of the following abnormal clinical findings: (a) body temperature higher than 38 °C or lower than 36 °C, (b) heart rate higher than 90 beats/min, (c) hyperventilation evidenced by respiratory rate higher than 20 breaths/min or PaCO2 lower than 32 mmHg, and (d) white blood cell count higher than 12,000/?L or lower than 4000/?L; (2) confirmed septic patients with at least a 2-point increase from the baseline total sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score following infection. Other inclusion criteria included adult patients with an age ?18 years regardless of gender and those who had either systemic inflammatory response syndrome or suspected/confirmed infection. Patients were shortly follow-up for the 28-day mortality. Each patient was subject to SPEED score and MEDS score and then the results were compared to detect which of them was more effective in predicting outcome. The receiver operating characteristic curves were also done for MEDS and SPEED scores. RESULTS:Among the 61 patients, 41 died with the mortality rate of 67.2%. The mortality rate increased with a higher SPEED and MEDS scores. Both SPEED and MEDS scores revealed significant difference between the survivors and nonsurvivors (p = 0.004 and p < 0.001, respectively), indicating that both the two systems are effective in predicting the 28-day mortality of sepsis patients. Thereafter, the receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, which showed that SPEED was better than the MEDS score when applied to the complete study population with an area under the curve being 0.87 (0.788-0.963) as compared with 0.75 (0.634-0.876) for MEDS. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the best fitting predictor of 28-day mortality for sepsis patients was the SPEED scoring system. For every one unit increase in SPEED score, the odds of 28-day mortality increased by 37%. CONCLUSION:SPEED score is more useful and accurate than MEDS score in predicting the 28-day mortality among sepsis patients. Therefore SPEED rather than MEDS should be more widely used in the ED for sepsis patients.

Project description:Background and importancemRNA-based host response signatures have been reported to improve sepsis diagnostics. Meanwhile, prognostic markers for the rapid and accurate prediction of severity in patients with suspected acute infections and sepsis remain an unmet need. IMX-SEV-2 is a 29-host-mRNA classifier designed to predict disease severity in patients with acute infection or sepsis.ObjectiveValidation of the host-mRNA infection severity classifier IMX-SEV-2.Design, settings and participantsProspective, observational, convenience cohort of emergency department (ED) patients with suspected acute infections.Outcome measures and analysisWhole blood RNA tubes were analyzed using independently trained and validated composite target genes (IMX-SEV-2). IMX-SEV-2-generated risk scores for severity were compared to the patient outcomes in-hospital mortality and 72-h multiorgan failure.Main resultsOf the 312 eligible patients, 22 (7.1%) died in hospital and 58 (18.6%) experienced multiorgan failure within 72 h of presentation. For predicting in-hospital mortality, IMX-SEV-2 had a significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.84 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.76-0.93] compared to 0.76 (0.64-0.87) for lactate, 0.68 (0.57-0.79) for quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and 0.75 (0.65-0.85) for National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), ( P = 0.015, 0.001 and 0.013, respectively). For identifying and predicting 72-h multiorgan failure, the AUROC of IMX-SEV-2 was 0.76 (0.68-0.83), not significantly different from lactate (0.73, 0.65-0.81), qSOFA (0.77, 0.70-0.83) or NEWS2 (0.81, 0.75-0.86).ConclusionThe IMX-SEV-2 classifier showed a superior prediction of in-hospital mortality compared to biomarkers and clinical scores among ED patients with suspected infections. No improvement for predicting multiorgan failure was found compared to established scores or biomarkers. Identifying patients with a high risk of mortality or multiorgan failure may improve patient outcomes, resource utilization and guide therapy decision-making.

Dataset Information

The REDS score: a new scoring system to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis: a derivation and validation study.

Publications

The REDS score: a new scoring system to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis: a derivation and validation study.

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