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Development and Application of a Risk Prediction Model for In-Hospital Stroke After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Stroke is a serious complication after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), yet predictive models are not available. A new risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed and used to estimate site-specific performance. METHODS:We included 97,600 TAVR procedures from 521 sites in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry from July 2014 to June 2017. Association between baseline covariates and in-hospital stroke was estimated by logistic regression. Discrimination was evaluated by C-statistic. Calibration was tested internally via cross-validation. Hierarchical modeling was used to estimate risk-adjusted site-specific performance. RESULTS:Median age was 82 years, 44,926 (46.0%) were women, and 1,839 (1.9%) had in-hospital stroke. Covariates associated with stroke (odds ratio) included transapical access (1.44), access excluding transapical and transfemoral (1.77), prior stroke (1.57), prior transient ischemic attack (1.50), preprocedural shock, inotropes or mechanical assist device (1.48), smoking (1.28), porcelain aorta (1.23), peripheral arterial disease (1.21), age per 5 years (1.11), glomerular filtration rate per 5 mL/min (0.97), body surface area per m2 (0.55 male; 0.43 female), and prior aortic valve (0.78) and nonaortic valvular (0.42) procedures. The C-statistic was 0.622. Calibration curves demonstrated agreement between observed and expected stroke rates. Hierarchical modeling showed 10 (1.9%) centers with significantly higher odds ratios for in-hospital stroke than their peers. CONCLUSIONS:A risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry and used to estimate site-specific stroke performance. This model can serve as a valuable resource for quality improvement, clinical decision making, and patient counseling.

SUBMITTER: Thourani VH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6726434 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and Application of a Risk Prediction Model for In-Hospital Stroke After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry.

Thourani Vinod H VH O'Brien Sean M SM Kelly John J JJ Cohen David J DJ Peterson Eric D ED Mack Michael J MJ Shahian David M DM Grover Frederick L FL Carroll John D JD Brennan J Matthew JM Forcillo Jessica J Arnold Suzanne V SV Vemulapalli Sreekanth S Fitzgerald Susan S Holmes David R DR Bavaria Joseph E JE Edwards Fred H FH

The Annals of thoracic surgery 20181207 4

<h4>Background</h4>Stroke is a serious complication after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), yet predictive models are not available. A new risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed and used to estimate site-specific performance.<h4>Methods</h4>We included 97,600 TAVR procedures from 521 sites in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry from July 2014 to June 2017. Association between baseline covariates and ...[more]

PMID: 30529671

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Project description:ImportanceGeographic access to transcatheter aortic replacement (TAVR) centers varies in the United States as a result of controlled expansion through minimum volume requirements.ObjectiveTo describe the current geographic access to TAVR centers in the United States.Design, setting, and participantsObservational study from June 1, 2015, to June 30, 2017. United States census data were used to describe access to TAVR center. Google Maps and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry were used to describe characteristics of patients undergoing successful TAVR according to proximity to implanting center. The study analyzed 47 527 537 individuals 65 years and older in the United States and 31 098 patients who underwent successful transfemoral TAVR, were linked to fee-for-service Medicare, and had a measurable driving time.Main outcomes and measuresMedian driving distance to a TAVR center.ResultsAmong 40 537 zip codes in the United States, 490 (1.2%) contained a TAVR center, and among 305 hospital referral regions (HRR), 234 (76.7%) contained a TAVR center. Of the 31 749 patients who underwent successful transfemoral TAVR and were linked to fee-for-service Medicare, 31 098 had a measurable driving time. Mean (SD) age was 82.4 (6.9) years, 14 697 patients (47.3%) were women, and 7422 (23.87%) lived in a rural area. This translated to 1 232 568 of 47 527 537 individuals (2.6%) 65 years and older living in a zip code with a TAVR center and 43 789 169 (92.1%) living in an HRR with a TAVR center. Among 31 749 patients who underwent successful transfemoral TAVR and were linked to fee-for-service Medicare, 31 098 had a measurable driving time. All of these patients (100.0%) underwent their procedure in a TAVR center within their HRR, with 1350 (4.3%) undergoing TAVR in a center within their home zip code. Median driving time to implanting TAVR center was 35.0 minutes (IQR, 20.0-70.0 minutes), ranging from 2.0 minutes to 18 hours and 48 minutes.Conclusions and relevanceMost US individuals 65 years and older live in an HRR with a TAVR center. Among patients undergoing successful transfemoral TAVR, median driving time to implanting center was 35.0 minutes. Within the context of the US health care system, where certain advanced procedures and specialized care are centralized, TAVR services have significant penetration. More studies are required to evaluate the effect of geographic location of TAVR sites on access to TAVR procedures among individuals with an indication for a TAVR within the US population.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty. BACKGROUND:Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients. METHODS:Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test). RESULTS:Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups. CONCLUSIONS:A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and to less experienced sites and will allow an objective comparison of short-term mortality rates across centers.

Project description:ImportanceClinical decisions are ideally based on evidence generated from multiple randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating clinical outcomes, but historically, few clinical guideline recommendations have been based entirely on this type of evidence.ObjectiveTo determine the class and level of evidence (LOE) supporting current major cardiovascular society guideline recommendations, and changes in LOE over time.Data sourcesCurrent American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) clinical guideline documents (2008-2018), as identified on cardiovascular society websites, and immediate predecessors to these guideline documents (1999-2014), as referenced in current guideline documents.Study selectionComprehensive guideline documents including recommendations organized by class and LOE.Data extraction and synthesisThe number of recommendations and the distribution of LOE (A [supported by data from multiple RCTs or a single, large RCT], B [supported by data from observational studies or a single RCT], and C [supported by expert opinion only]) were determined for each guideline document.Main outcomes and measuresThe proportion of guideline recommendations supported by evidence from multiple RCTs (LOE A).ResultsAcross 26 current ACC/AHA guidelines (2930 recommendations; median, 121 recommendations per guideline [25th-75th percentiles, 76-155]), 248 recommendations (8.5%) were classified as LOE A, 1465 (50.0%) as LOE B, and 1217 (41.5%) as LOE C. The median proportion of LOE A recommendations was 7.9% (25th-75th percentiles, 0.9%-15.2%). Across 25 current ESC guideline documents (3399 recommendations; median, 130 recommendations per guideline [25th-75th percentiles, 111-154]), 484 recommendations (14.2%) were classified as LOE A, 1053 (31.0%) as LOE B, and 1862 (54.8%) as LOE C. When comparing current guidelines with prior versions, the proportion of recommendations that were LOE A did not increase in either ACC/AHA (median, 9.0% [current] vs 11.7% [prior]) or ESC guidelines (median, 15.1% [current] vs 17.6% [prior]).Conclusions and relevanceAmong recommendations in major cardiovascular society guidelines, only a small percentage were supported by evidence from multiple RCTs or a single, large RCT. This pattern does not appear to have meaningfully improved from 2008 to 2018.

Project description:BackgroundThe past decade has witnessed an ever-increasing momentum of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and a subsequent paradigm shift in the contemporary management of severe aortic stenosis (AS). We conducted a multi-centric TAVR registry based on Chinese patients (the China Aortic valve tRanscatheter Replacement registrY [CARRY]) to delineate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of Chinese patients who underwent TAVR and compare the results between different valve types in different Chinese regions.MethodsCARRY is an all-comer registry of aortic valve disease patients undergoing TAVR across China and was designed as an observational study that retrospectively included all TAVR patients at each participating site. Seven hospitals in China participated in the CARRY, and 1204 patients from April 2012 to November 2020 were included. Categorical variables were compared using the chi-squared test, and continuous variables were analyzed using a t test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) test. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the risk of adverse events during follow-up.ResultsThe mean age of the patients was 73.8 ± 6.5 years and 57.2% were male. The median Society of Thoracic Surgeon-Predicted Risk of Mortality score was 6.0 (3.7-8.9). Regarding the aortic valve, the proportion of bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) was 48.5%. During the hospital stay, the stroke rate was 0.7%, and the incidence of high-degree atrioventricular block indicating permanent pacemaker implantation was 11.0%. The in-hospital all-cause mortality rate was 2.2%. After 1 year, the overall mortality rate was 4.5%. Compared to patients with tricuspid aortic valve (TAV), those with BAV had similar in-hospital complication rates, but a lower incidence of in-hospital mortality (1.4% vs. 3.3%) and 1 year mortality (2.3% vs. 5.8%).ConclusionsTAVR candidates in China were younger, higher proportion of BAV, and had lower rates of post-procedural complications and mortality than other international all-comer registries. Given the use of early generation valves in the majority of the population, patients with BAV had similar rates of complications, but lower mortality than those with TAV. These findings further propel the extension of TAVR in low-risk patients.Trial registrationhttps://www.chictr.org.cn/ (No. ChiCTR2000038526).

Project description:BackgroundStroke remains a devastating complication of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), which has persisted despite refinements in technique and increased operator experience. While cerebral embolic protection devices (EPDs) have been developed to mitigate this risk, data regarding their impact on stroke and other outcomes after TAVR are limited.MethodsWe performed an observational study using data from the Society for Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry. Patients were included if they underwent elective or urgent transfemoral TAVR between January 2018 and December 2019. The primary outcome was in-hospital stroke. To adjust for confounding, the association between EPD use and clinical outcomes was evaluated using instrumental variable analysis, a technique designed to support causal inference from observational data, with site-level preference for EPD use within the same quarter of the procedure as the instrument. We also performed a propensity score-based secondary analysis using overlap weights.ResultsOur analytic sample included 123 186 patients from 599 sites. The use of EPD during TAVR increased over time, reaching 28% of sites and 13% of TAVR procedures by December 2019. There was wide variation in EPD use across hospitals, with 8% of sites performing >50% of TAVR procedures with an EPD and 72% performing no procedures with an EPD in the last quarter of 2019. In our primary analysis using the instrumental variable model, there was no association between EPD use and in-hospital stroke (adjusted relative risk, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.68-1.13]; absolute risk difference, -0.15% [95% CI, -0.49 to 0.20]). However, in our secondary analysis using the propensity score-based model, EPD use was associated with 18% lower odds of in-hospital stroke (adjusted odds ratio, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.69-0.97]; absolute risk difference, -0.28% [95% CI, -0.52 to -0.03]). Results were generally consistent across the secondary end points, as well as subgroup analyses.ConclusionsIn this nationally representative observational study, we did not find an association between EPD use for TAVR and in-hospital stroke in our primary instrumental variable analysis, and found only a modestly lower risk of in-hospital stroke in our secondary propensity-weighted analysis. These findings provide a strong basis for large-scale randomized, controlled trials to test whether EPDs provide meaningful clinical benefit for patients undergoing TAVR.

Dataset Information

Development and Application of a Risk Prediction Model for In-Hospital Stroke After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry.

Publications

Development and Application of a Risk Prediction Model for In-Hospital Stroke After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report From The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry.

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