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Historical range contractions can predict extinction risk in extant mammals.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is amongst the main threats to biodiversity. Considering extant mammals endured Quaternary climate change, we analyzed the extent to which this past change predicts current mammals' extinction risk at global and biogeographical scales. We accessed range dynamics by modeling the potential distribution of all extant terrestrial mammals in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and in current climate conditions and used extinction risk from IUCN red list. We built General Linear Mixed-Effects Models to test the magnitude with which the variation in geographic range (?Range) and a proxy for abundance (?Suitability) between the LGM and present-day predicts current mammal's extinction risk. We found past climate change most strongly reduced the geographical range and climatic suitability of threatened rather than non-threatened mammals. Quaternary range contractions and reduced suitability explain around 40% of species extinction risk, particularly for small-bodied mammals. At global and biogeographical scales, all groups that suffered significant Quaternary range contractions now contain a greater proportion of threatened species when compared to groups whose ranges did not significantly contract. This reinforces the importance of using historical range contractions as a key predictor of extinction risk for species in the present and future climate change scenarios and supports current efforts to fight climate change for biodiversity conservation.

SUBMITTER: Borges CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6728145 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Historical range contractions can predict extinction risk in extant mammals.

Borges Christielly Mendonça CM Terribile Levi Carina LC de Oliveira Guilherme G Lima-Ribeiro Matheus de Souza MS Dobrovolski Ricardo R

PloS one 20190905 9

Climate change is amongst the main threats to biodiversity. Considering extant mammals endured Quaternary climate change, we analyzed the extent to which this past change predicts current mammals' extinction risk at global and biogeographical scales. We accessed range dynamics by modeling the potential distribution of all extant terrestrial mammals in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and in current climate conditions and used extinction risk from IUCN red list. We built General L ...[more]

PMID: 31487744

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Project description:BackgroundApproximately 50% of freshwater turtles worldwide are currently threatened by habitat loss, rural development and altered stream flows. Paradoxically, reptiles are understudied organisms, with many species lacking basic geographic distribution and abundance data. The iconic Irwin's turtle, Elseya irwini, belongs to a unique group of Australian endemic freshwater turtles capable of cloacal respiration. Water resource development, increased presence of saltwater crocodiles and its cryptic behaviour, have made sampling for Irwin's turtle in parts of its range problematic, resulting in no confirmed detections across much of its known range for > 25 years. Here, we used environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis for E. irwini detection along its historical and contemporary distribution in the Burdekin, Bowen and Broken River catchments and tributaries. Five replicate water samples were collected at 37 sites across those three river catchments. Environmental DNA was extracted using a glycogen-aided precipitation method and screened for the presence of E. irwini through an eDNA assay targeting a 127 base pair-long fragment of the NADH dehydrogenase 4 (ND4) mitochondrial gene.ResultsElseya irwini eDNA was detected at sites within its historic distribution in the lower Burdekin River, where the species had not been formally recorded for > 25 years, indicating the species still inhabits the lower Burdekin area. We also found higher levels of E. iriwni eDNA within its contemporary distribution in the Bowen and Broken Rivers, matching the prevailing scientific view that these areas host larger populations of E. irwini.ConclusionsThis study constitutes the first scientific evidence of E. irwini presence in the lower Burdekin since the original type specimens were collected as part of its formal description, shortly after the construction of the Burdekin Falls Dam. From the higher percentage of positive detections in the upper reaches of the Broken River (Urannah Creek), we conclude that this area constitutes the core habitat area for the species. Our field protocol comprises a user-friendly, time-effective sampling method. Finally, due to safety risks associated with traditional turtle sampling methods in the Burdekin River (e.g., estuarine crocodiles) we propose eDNA sampling as the most pragmatic detection method available for E. irwini.

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Historical range contractions can predict extinction risk in extant mammals.

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Historical range contractions can predict extinction risk in extant mammals.

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