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Cardiovascular disease incidence projections in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:We aimed to project the 10-year future incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and model several intervention scenarios based on a multi-site Asian HIV-positive cohort. METHODS:Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events for 2019-2028 were estimated with the D:A:D equation, accounting for age- and sex-adjusted mortality. Modelled intervention scenarios were treatment of high total cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) or high blood pressure, abacavir or lopinavir substitution, and smoking cessation. RESULTS:Of 3,703 included patients, 69% were male, median age was 46 (IQR 40-53) years and median time since ART initiation was 9.8 years (IQR 7.5-14.1). Cohort incidence rates of CVD were projected to increase from 730 per 100,000 person-years (pys) in 2019 to 1,432 per 100,000 pys in 2028. In the modelled intervention scenarios, most events can be avoided by smoking cessation, abacavir substitution, lopinavir substitution, decreasing total cholesterol, treating high blood pressure and increasing HDL. CONCLUSIONS:Our projections suggest a doubling of CVD incidence rates in Asian HIV-positive adults in our cohort. An increase in CVD can be expected in any ageing population, however, according to our models, this can be close to averted by interventions. Thus, there is an urgent need for risk screening and integration of HIV and CVD programmes to reduce the future CVD burden.

SUBMITTER: Bijker R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6728217 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cardiovascular disease incidence projections in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

Bijker Rimke R Kumarasamy Nagalingeswaran N Kiertiburanakul Sasisopin S Pujari Sanjay S Lam Wilson W Chaiwarith Romanee R Wong Wing W WW Kamarulzaman Adeeba A Kantipong Pacharee P Avihingsanon Anchalee A Nguyen Kinh V KV Tanuma Junko J Ng Oon Tek OT Sim Benedict Lh BL Merati Tuti P TP Choi Jun Y JY Ditangco Rossana R Yunihastuti Evy E Sun Ly P LP Do Cuong D CD Ross Jeremy J Law Matthew M

Antiviral therapy 20190101 4

<h4>Background</h4>We aimed to project the 10-year future incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and model several intervention scenarios based on a multi-site Asian HIV-positive cohort.<h4>Methods</h4>Analyses were based on patients recruited to the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), consisting of 21 sites in 12 countries. Patients on triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) were included if they were alive, without previous CVD, and had data on CVD risk factors. Annual new CVD events ...[more]

PMID: 30833516

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Project description:BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) has evolved rapidly since its beginnings. This analysis describes trends in first-line ART use in Asia and their impact on treatment outcomes.MethodsPatients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database receiving first-line ART for ? 6 months were included. Predictors of treatment failure and treatment modification were assessed.ResultsData from 4662 eligible patients was analysed. Patients started ART in 2003-2006 (n = 1419), 2007-2010 (n = 2690) and 2011-2013 (n = 553). During the observation period, tenofovir, zidovudine and abacavir use largely replaced stavudine. Stavudine was prescribed to 5.8% of ART starters in 2012/13. Efavirenz use increased at the expense of nevirapine, although both continue to be used extensively (47.5% and 34.5% of patients in 2012/13, respectively). Protease inhibitor use dropped after 2004. The rate of treatment failure or modification declined over time (22.1 [95%CI 20.7-23.5] events per 100 patient/years in 2003-2006, 15.8 [14.9-16.8] in 2007-2010, and 11.6 [9.4-14.2] in 2011-2013). Adjustment for ART regimen had little impact on the temporal decline in treatment failure rates but substantially attenuated the temporal decline in rates of modification due to adverse event. In the final multivariate model, treatment modification due to adverse event was significantly predicted by earlier period of ART initiation (hazard ratio 0.52 [95%CI 0.33-0.81], p = 0.004 for 2011-2013 versus 2003-2006), older age (1.56 [1.19-2.04], p = 0.001 for ? 50 years versus <30 years), female sex (1.29 [1.11-1.50], p = 0.001 versus male), positive hepatitis C status (1.33 [1.06-1.66], p = 0.013 versus negative), and ART regimen (11.36 [6.28-20.54], p<0.001 for stavudine-based regimens versus tenofovir-based).ConclusionsThe observed trends in first-line ART use in Asia reflect changes in drug availability, global treatment recommendations and prescriber preferences over the past decade. These changes have contributed to a declining rate of treatment modification due to adverse event, but not to reductions in treatment failure.

Project description:IntroductionAIDS-related deaths in people living with HIV/AIDS have been decreasing in number since the introduction of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART). However, data on recent causes of death in the Asia-Pacific region are limited. Hence, we analysed and compared AIDS-related and non-AIDS-related mortality in high- and low-income settings in the region.MethodsPatients from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) and Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD) receiving cART between 1999 and 2017 were included. Causes of death verification were based on review of the standardized Cause of Death (CoDe) form designed by the D:A:D group. Cohorts were grouped as AHOD (all high-income sites), TAHOD-high (high/upper-middle income countries) and TAHOD-low (lower-middle income countries). TAHOD sites were split into high/upper-middle income and lower-middle income country settings based on World Bank classifications. Competing risk regression was used to analyse factors associated with AIDS and non-AIDS-related mortality.ResultsOf 10,386 patients, 522 died; 187 from AIDS-related and 335 from non-AIDS-related causes. The overall incidence rate of deaths during follow-up was 0.28 per 100 person-years (/100 PYS) for AIDS and 0.51/100 PYS for non-AIDS. Analysis indicated that the incidence rate of non-AIDS mortality decreased from 0.78/100 PYS to 0.37/100 PYS from year groups 2003 to 2007 to 2013 to 2017 (p < 0.001). Similarly, incidence rates of AIDS-related deaths decreased from 0.51/100 PYS to 0.09/100 PYS from year groups 2003 to 2007 to 2013 to 2017 (p < 0.001). More recent years of follow-up were associated with reduced hazard for non-AIDS mortality (2008 to 2012: aSHR (adjusted sub-hazard ratio) 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54 to 0.96, p = 0.027; 2013 to 2017: aSHR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.87, p = 0.004) compared to years 2003 to 2007. The AHOD cohort had almost twice the hazard of non-AIDS mortality compared to TAHOD-low (lower-middle income sites) (aSHR 1.72, 95% CI, 1.20 to 2.46, p = 0.003); there were no differences between cohorts for AIDS-related mortality (p = 0.834).ConclusionAIDS and non-AIDS-related mortality rates have decreased over the past years in the Asia-Pacific region. There is a greater risk for non-AIDS-associated deaths in the AHOD cohort compared to lower-middle income settings in TAHOD.

Dataset Information

Cardiovascular disease incidence projections in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

Publications

Cardiovascular disease incidence projections in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD).

Similar Datasets

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