Dataset Information

Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Mathematical and statistical models are used to project the future time course of infectious disease epidemics and the expected future burden on health care systems and economies. Influenza is a particularly important disease in this context because it causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics. In order to forecast health care utilization during epidemics-and the effects of hospitalizations and deaths on the contact network and, in turn, on transmission dynamics-modellers must make assumptions about the lengths of time between infection, visiting a physician, being admitted to hospital, leaving hospital, and death. More reliable forecasts could be be made if the distributions of times between these types of events ("delay distributions") were known. METHODS:We estimated delay distributions in the province of Ontario, Canada, between 2006 and 2010. To do so, we used encrypted health insurance numbers to link 1.34 billion health care billing records to 4.27 million hospital inpatient stays. Because the four year period we studied included three typical influenza seasons and the 2009 influenza pandemic, we were able to compare the delay distributions in non-pandemic and pandemic settings. We also estimated conditional probabilities such as the probability of hospitalization within the year if diagnosed with influenza. RESULTS:In non-pandemic [pandemic] years, delay distribution medians (inter-quartile ranges) were: Service to Admission 6.3 days (0.1-17.6 days) [2.4 days (-0.3-13.6 days)], Admission to Discharge 3 days (1.4-5.9 days) [2.6 days (1.2-5.1 days)], Admission to Death 5.3 days (2.1-11 days) [6 days (2.6-13.1 days)]. (Service date is defined as the date, within the year, of the first health care billing that included a diagnostic code for influenza-like-illness.) Among individuals diagnosed with either pneumonia or influenza in a given year, 19% [16%] were hospitalized within the year and 3% [2%] died in hospital. Among all individuals who were hospitalized, 10% [12%] were diagnosed with pneumonia or influenza during the year and 5% [5%] died in hospital. CONCLUSION:Our empirical delay distributions and conditional probabilities should help facilitate more accurate forecasts in the future, including improved predictions of hospital bed demands during influenza outbreaks, and the expected effects of hospitalizations on epidemic dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Li M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6731609 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada.

Li Michael M Bolker Benjamin M BM Dushoff Jonathan J Ma Junling J Earn David J D DJD

BMC public health 20190906 1

<h4>Background</h4>Mathematical and statistical models are used to project the future time course of infectious disease epidemics and the expected future burden on health care systems and economies. Influenza is a particularly important disease in this context because it causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics. In order to forecast health care utilization during epidemics-and the effects of hospitalizations and deaths on the contact network and, in turn, on transmission dynamics-modelle ...[more]

PMID: 31492122

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Project description:ObjectiveThe objective was to compare home care episode, standardised assessment, and service patterns in Ontario's publicly funded home care system during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., March to September 2020) using the previous year as reference.Study design and settingWe plotted monthly time series data from March 2019 to September 2020 for home care recipients in Ontario, Canada. Home care episodes were linked to interRAI Home Care assessments, interRAI Contact Assessments, and home care services. Health status measures from the patient's most recent interRAI assessment were used to stratify the receipt of personal support, nursing, and occupational or physical therapy services. Significant level and slope changes were detected using Poisson, beta, and linear regression models.ResultsThe March to September 2020 period was associated with significantly fewer home care admissions, discharges, and standardised assessments. Among those assessed with the interRAI Home Care assessment, significantly fewer patients received any personal support services. Among those assessed with either interRAI assessment and identified to have rehabilitation needs, significantly fewer patients received any therapy services. Among patients receiving services, patients received significantly fewer hours of personal support and fewer therapy visits per month. By September 2020, the rate of admissions and services had mostly returned to pre-pandemic levels, but completion of standardised assessments lagged behind.ConclusionThe first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with substantial changes in Ontario's publicly funded home care system. Although it may have been necessary to prioritise service delivery during a crisis situation, standardised assessments are needed to support individualised patient care and system-level monitoring. Given the potential disruptions to home care services, future studies should examine the impact of the pandemic on the health and well-being of home care recipients and their caregiving networks.

Project description:BackgroundHigh-quality estimates of health care costs are required to understand the burden of illness and to inform economic models. We estimated the costs associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection from the public payer perspective in Ontario, Canada.MethodsIn this population-based retrospective cohort study, we identified patients aged 18-105 years diagnosed with chronic HCV infection in Ontario from 2003 to 2014 using linked administrative data. We allocated the time from diagnosis until death or the end of follow-up (Dec. 31, 2016) to 9 mutually exclusive health states using validated algorithms: no cirrhosis, no cirrhosis (RNA negative) (i.e., cured HCV infection), compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, both decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, terminal (liver-related) and terminal (non-liver-related). We estimated direct medical costs (in 2018 Canadian dollars) per 30 days per health state and used regression models to identify predictors of the costs.ResultsWe identified 48 239 patients with chronic hepatitis C, of whom 30 763 (63.8%) were men and 35 891 (74.4%) were aged 30-59 years at diagnosis. The mean 30-day costs were $798 (95% confidence interval [CI] $780-$816) (n = 43 568) for no cirrhosis, $661 (95% CI $630-$692) (n = 6422) for no cirrhosis (RNA negative), $1487 (95% CI $1375-$1599) (n = 4970) for compensated cirrhosis, $3659 (95% CI $3279-$4039) (n = 3151) for decompensated cirrhosis, $4238 (95% CI $3480-$4996) (n = 550) for hepatocellular carcinoma, $8753 (95% CI $7130-$10 377) (n = 485) for both decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, $4539 (95% CI $3746-$5333) (n = 372) for liver transplantation, $11 202 (95% CI $10 645-$11 760) (n = 3201) for terminal (liver-related) and $8801 (95% CI $8331-$9271) (n = 5278) for terminal (non-liver-related) health states. Comorbidity was the most significant predictor of total costs for all health states.InterpretationOur findings suggest that the financial burden of HCV infection is substantially higher than previously estimated in Canada. Our comprehensive, up-to-date cost estimates for clinically defined health states of HCV infection should be useful for future economic evaluations related to this disorder.

Dataset Information

Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada.

Publications

Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada.

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