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Utility of the 5-Minute Apgar Score as a Research Endpoint.

ABSTRACT: Although Apgar scores are commonly used as proxy outcomes, little evidence exists in support of the most common cutpoints (<7, <4). We used 2 data sets to explore this issue: one contained planned community births from across the United States (n = 52,877; 2012-2016), and the other contained hospital births from California (n = 428,877; 2010). We treated 5-minute Apgars as clinical "tests," compared against 18 known outcomes; we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for each. We used 3 different criteria to determine optimal cutpoints. Results were very consistent across data sets, outcomes, and all subgroups: The cutpoint that maximizes the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity is universally <9. However, extremely low positive predictive values for all outcomes at <9 indicate more misclassification than is acceptable for research. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (which treat Apgars as quasicontinuous) were generally indicative of adequate discrimination between infants destined to experience poor outcomes and those not; comparing median Apgars between groups might be an analytical alternative to dichotomizing. Nonetheless, because Apgar scores are not clearly on any causal pathway of interest, we discourage researchers from using them unless the motivation for doing so is clear.

SUBMITTER: Bovbjerg ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6736341 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Utility of the 5-Minute Apgar Score as a Research Endpoint.

Bovbjerg Marit L ML Dissanayake Mekhala V MV Cheyney Melissa M Brown Jennifer J Snowden Jonathan M JM

American journal of epidemiology 20190901 9

Although Apgar scores are commonly used as proxy outcomes, little evidence exists in support of the most common cutpoints (<7, <4). We used 2 data sets to explore this issue: one contained planned community births from across the United States (n = 52,877; 2012-2016), and the other contained hospital births from California (n = 428,877; 2010). We treated 5-minute Apgars as clinical "tests," compared against 18 known outcomes; we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predicti ...[more]

PMID: 31145428

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Project description:(1) Background: We aimed to study whether a low 5 min Apgar score is associated with pediatric neurological morbidities throughout childhood. (2) Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted. The exposed group was defined as offspring with a 5 min Apgar score <7, and the remaining offspring served as the comparison group. The primary outcome was defined as pediatric hospitalizations with any neurological morbidity. Multivariable survival models were used to evaluate the association between the exposure and outcome while adjusting for potential confounders. Additional models were used to study this association separately among term- and preterm-born offspring. (3) Results: The study population included 349,385 singletons born between the years 1991 and 2021, 0.6% (n = 2030) of whom had a 5 min Apgar score <7 (exposed). The cohort was followed for up to 18 years (median ~ 10.6). The incidence of neurological morbidity-related hospitalizations was higher among the exposed group versus the unexposed group (11.3% versus 7.5%, hazard ratio = 1.84; 95%CI 1.58-2.13). A low 5 min Apgar score remained a significant risk factor for neurological hospitalizations after adjusting for preterm delivery, maternal age, hypertension during pregnancy, gestational diabetes mellitus, chorioamnionitis, and delivery mode (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.61; 95%CI 1.39-1.87). However, after modeling term and preterm offspring separately, a low 5 min Apgar score was independently associated with neurological hospitalizations only among offspring born at term (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.16; 95%CI 0.87-1.55 and 1.70; 95%CI 1.42-2.02 for preterm and term offspring, respectively). (4) Conclusions: A low 5 min Apgar score is independently associated with childhood neurological morbidity, specifically among term-born offspring. Although not designed to identify risk for long-term health complications, Apgar scores may be a marker of risk for short- and long-term neurological morbidities among term newborns.

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Utility of the 5-Minute Apgar Score as a Research Endpoint.

Publications

Utility of the 5-Minute Apgar Score as a Research Endpoint.

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