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Graphical comparisons of relative disease burden across multiple risk factors.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Population attributable fractions (PAF) measure the proportion of disease prevalence that would be avoided in a hypothetical population, similar to the population of interest, but where a particular risk factor is eliminated. They are extensively used in epidemiology to quantify and compare disease burden due to various risk factors, and directly influence public policy regarding possible health interventions. In contrast to individual specific metrics such as relative risks and odds ratios, attributable fractions depend jointly on both risk factor prevalence and relative risk. The relative contributions of these two components is important, and usually needs to be presented in summary tables that are presented together with the attributable fraction calculation. However, representing PAF in an accessible graphical format, that captures both prevalence and relative risk, may assist interpretation. METHODS:Taylor-series approximations to PAF in terms of risk factor prevalence and log-odds ratio are derived that facilitate simultaneous representation of PAF, risk factor prevalence and risk-factor/disease log-odds ratios on a single co-ordinate axis. Methods are developed for binary, multi-category and continuous exposure variables. RESULTS:The methods are demonstrated using INTERSTROKE, a large international case control dataset focused on risk factors for stroke. CONCLUSIONS:The described methods could be used as a complement to tables summarizing prevalence, odds ratios and PAF, and may convey the same information in a more intuitive and visually appealing manner. The suggested nomogram can also be used to visually estimate the effects of health interventions which only partially reduce risk factor prevalence. Finally, in the binary risk factor case, the approximations can also be used to quickly convert logistic regression coefficients for a risk factor into approximate PAFs.

SUBMITTER: Ferguson J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6737608 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Graphical comparisons of relative disease burden across multiple risk factors.

Ferguson John J O'Leary Neil N Maturo Fabrizio F Yusuf Salim S O'Donnell Martin M

BMC medical research methodology 20190911 1

<h4>Background</h4>Population attributable fractions (PAF) measure the proportion of disease prevalence that would be avoided in a hypothetical population, similar to the population of interest, but where a particular risk factor is eliminated. They are extensively used in epidemiology to quantify and compare disease burden due to various risk factors, and directly influence public policy regarding possible health interventions. In contrast to individual specific metrics such as relative risks a ...[more]

PMID: 31506063

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Project description:Background:According to the World Health Organization, Nigeria is one of the countries with a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) worldwide. Improving the burden of TB among HIV-negative people would require comprehensive and up-to-date data to inform targeted policy actions in Nigeria. The study aimed to describe the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and risk factors of tuberculosis in Nigeria between 1990 and 2016. Methods:This study used the most recent data from the global burden of disease study 2016. TB deaths were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model, while TB incidence, prevalence and DALYs, as well as years of life lost and years of life lived with disability were calculated in the DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Using a comparative risk assessment approach, TB burden attributable to risk factors was estimated in a spatial-temporal Gaussian Process Regression tool. Results:In 2016, the prevalence of TB among HIV-negative people was 27% (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 23-31%) in Nigeria. TB incidence rate (new and relapse cases) was 158 per 100,000 people (95% UI; 128-193), while the total number of TB mortality was 39,933 deaths (95% UI; 30,488-55,039) in 2016. Between 2000 and 2016, the age-standardised prevalence and incidence rates of TB-HIV negative decreased by 20.0 and 87.6%, respectively. The age-standardised mortality rate also dropped by 191.6% over the same period. DALYs due to TB among HIV-negative Nigerians was high but varied across the age groups. Of the risk factors studied, alcohol use accounted for the highest number of TB deaths and DALYs, followed by diabetes and smoking in 2016. Conclusion:The study shows an improving trend in TB disease burden among HIV-negative individuals in Nigeria from 1990 to 2016. Despite this progress, this study suggests that additional efforts are still needed to ensure that Nigeria is not left behind in the current global strategy to end TB disease. Reducing TB disease burden in the country will require a multipronged approach that includes increased funding, health system strengthening and improved TB surveillance, as well as preventive efforts for alcohol use, smoking and diabetes.

Project description:ImportanceAlthough multiple HLA alleles associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) risk have been identified, genotype-phenotype studies in the HLA region remain scarce and inconclusive.ObjectivesTo investigate whether MS risk-associated HLA alleles also affect disease phenotypes.Design, setting, and participantsA cross-sectional, case-control study comprising 652 patients with MS who had comprehensive phenotypic information and 455 individuals of European origin serving as controls was conducted at a single academic research site. Patients evaluated at the Multiple Sclerosis Center at University of California, San Francisco between July 2004 and September 2005 were invited to participate. Spinal cord imaging in the data set was acquired between July 2013 and March 2014; analysis was performed between December 2014 and December 2015.Main outcomes and measuresCumulative HLA genetic burden (HLAGB) calculated using the most updated MS-associated HLA alleles vs clinical and magnetic resonance imaging outcomes, including age at onset, disease severity, conversion time from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite MS, fractions of cortical and subcortical gray matter and cerebral white matter, brain lesion volume, spinal cord gray and white matter areas, upper cervical cord area, and the ratio of gray matter to the upper cervical cord area. Multivariate modeling was applied separately for each sex data set.ResultsOf the 652 patients with MS, 586 had no missing genetic data and were included in the HLAGB analysis. In these 586 patients (404 women [68.9%]; mean [SD] age at disease onset, 33.6 [9.4] years), HLAGB was higher than in controls (median [IQR], 0.7 [0-1.4] and 0 [-0.3 to 0.5], respectively; P = 1.8 × 10-27). A total of 619 (95.8%) had relapsing-onset MS and 27 (4.2%) had progressive-onset MS. No significant difference was observed between relapsing-onset MS and primary progressive MS. A higher HLAGB was associated with younger age at onset and the atrophy of subcortical gray matter fraction in women with relapsing-onset MS (standard β = -1.20 × 10-1; P = 1.7 × 10-2 and standard β = -1.67 × 10-1; P = 2.3 × 10-4, respectively), which were driven mainly by the HLA-DRB1*15:01 haplotype. In addition, we observed the distinct role of the HLA-A*24:02-B*07:02-DRB1*15:01 haplotype among the other common DRB1*15:01 haplotypes and a nominally protective effect of HLA-B*44:02 to the subcortical gray atrophy (standard β = -1.28 × 10-1; P = 5.1 × 10-3 and standard β = 9.52 × 10-2; P = 3.6 × 10-2, respectively).Conclusions and relevanceWe confirm and extend previous observations linking HLA MS susceptibility alleles with disease progression and specific clinical and magnetic resonance imaging phenotypic traits.

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Graphical comparisons of relative disease burden across multiple risk factors.

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Graphical comparisons of relative disease burden across multiple risk factors.

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