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Second primary malignancy in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: There have been no studies on implementing effective screening models for esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma survivors. We used a proportional subdistribution hazards model to estimate second primary malignancy risks among patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. We validated models using a bootstrap cross-validation method and performed decision curve analysis to evaluate their clinical utility. Age group and SEER historic stage were significantly associated with second primary malignancy risk after diagnosis of esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. Saving positive lymph nodes and distant metastasis were significant factors in the adenocarcinoma group, and marital status, tumor location, and chemotherapy were significant factors in the squamous cell carcinoma group. Calibration plots show good concordance between predicted and actual outcomes except in high-probability areas for the risk of a second primary malignancy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Discrimination performances of the Fine-Gray models were evaluated using c-indices, which were 0.691 and 0.662 for second primary malignancies in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, respectively. Decision curve analysis yielded a range of threshold probabilities (0.020-0.177 and 0.021-0.133 for patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, respectively) at which the clinical net benefit of the risk model was larger than those of hypothetical all-screening and no-screening scenarios. Our nomograms enable selection of patient populations at high risk for a second primary malignancy and thus will facilitate the design of prevention trials for affected populations.

SUBMITTER: Zhang G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6738979 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:p14(ARF) , an alternate reading frame (ARF) product of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2A locus, plays a critical role in crosstalk between the tumor protein 53 (p53) and retinoblastoma (Rb) pathways and in cellular anticancer mechanisms. Therefore, the authors of this report investigated the association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the p14(ARF) gene and the risk of developing a second primary malignancy (SPM) after an index squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). METHODS:The log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of 2 p14(ARF) SNPs (reference SNP [rs]3731217 and rs3088440) with SPM-free survival and with the risk of developing an SPM among 1287 patients who had SCCHN. RESULTS:Patients with either p14(ARF) variant genotypes of the 2 polymorphisms had a significantly reduced SPM-free survival compared with patients with no variant genotypes (log-rank test; P = .006). Compared with the p14(ARF) thymine-thymine (TT) and guanine-guanine (GG) genotypes, the variant genotypes of p14(ARF) TG/GG and guanine-adenine (GA)/AA were associated with a significantly moderately increased risk of developing an SPM (p14(ARF) rs3731217: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-2.19; p14(ARF) rs3088440: aHR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.07-2.43). Moreover, after combining the variant genotypes of the 2 SNPs, patients who had variant genotypes were at significantly greater risk of developing an SPM compared with patients who had no variant genotypes (aHR, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.54-6.12), and the risk was particularly pronounced in several subgroups. CONCLUSIONS:The current results suggested that there is a modestly increased risk of developing an SPM after an index SCCHN with each p14(ARF) polymorphism, and there is an even greater risk of developing an SPM for patients with combined variant genotypes of the 2 SNPs. Therefore, p14(ARF) polymorphisms may be susceptible markers of the risk of developing an SPM in patients with SCCHN.

Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies have reported increased risk of second cancer in both esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) survivors. This study aimed to examine the risk and influential factors of second cancer in ESCC and EAC patients.MethodsThis population-based cohort study included 7,297 ESCC patients and 11,812 EAC patients who were in 1992-2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in the United States. These patients were followed up until diagnosis of second cancer, death, or end of the study (December 31, 2019). We calculated standard incidence ratio (SIR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of second cancer and performed competing-risk regression to estimate the subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR) comparing categories of patients' characteristics.ResultsAfter a total of 49,509.38 person-years of follow-up, 431 (5.9%) ESCC patients and 636 (5.9%) EAC patients developed a second cancer. An overall increased risk of second cancer was observed in both ESCC patients (SIR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.51-1.83) and EAC patients (SIR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.20). ESCC patients were at increased risk of second malignancy in oral cavity and pharynx (SIR: 12.57, 95% CI: 9.87-15.79), stomach (SIR: 3.03, 95% CI: 1.77-4.85), nose and larynx (SIR: 4.79, 95% CI: 2.47-8.37), and lung and bronchus (SIR: 2.44, 95% CI: 1.96-2.99), but decreased risk of prostate cancer (SIR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.52-0.99). EAC patients had increased risk of second malignancies in stomach (SIR: 4.41, 95% CI: 3.23-5.89), lung and bronchus (SIR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.02-1.54), and kidney (SIR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.05-2.25). The risk of second cancer was higher in female ESCC patients than in males (sHR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.11-1.63) and decreased with more advanced tumor stage in both ESCC patients (sHR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.50-0.76 for regional stage; sHR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.20-0.36 for distant stage) and EAC patients (sHR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.40-0.56 for regional stage; sHR: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.07-0.13 for distant stage).ConclusionsBoth ESCC and EAC patients are at considerable risk of certain types of second cancer.

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Second primary malignancy in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma.

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