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Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.

ABSTRACT: A key question in ecology is the relative impact of internal nonlinear dynamics and external perturbations on the long-term trajectories of natural systems. Measles has been analyzed extensively as a paradigm for consumer-resource dynamics due to the oscillatory nature of the host-pathogen life cycle, the abundance of rich data to test theory, and public health relevance. The dynamics of measles in London, in particular, has acted as a prototypical test bed for such analysis using incidence data from the pre-vaccination era (1944-1967). However, during this timeframe there were few external large-scale perturbations, limiting an assessment of the relative impact of internal and extra demographic perturbations to the host population. Here, we extended the previous London analyses to include nearly a century of data that also contains four major demographic changes: the First and Second World Wars, the 1918 influenza pandemic, and the start of a measles mass vaccination program. By combining mortality and incidence data using particle filtering methods, we show that a simple stochastic epidemic model, with minimal historical specifications, can capture the nearly 100 years of dynamics including changes caused by each of the major perturbations. We show that the majority of dynamic changes are explainable by the internal nonlinear dynamics of the system, tuned by demographic changes. In addition, the 1918 influenza pandemic and World War II acted as extra perturbations to this basic epidemic oscillator. Our analysis underlines that long-term ecological and epidemiological dynamics can follow very simple rules, even in a non-stationary population subject to significant perturbations and major secular changes.

SUBMITTER: Becker AD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6742223 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.

Becker Alexander D AD Wesolowski Amy A Bjørnstad Ottar N ON Grenfell Bryan T BT

PLoS computational biology 20190912 9

A key question in ecology is the relative impact of internal nonlinear dynamics and external perturbations on the long-term trajectories of natural systems. Measles has been analyzed extensively as a paradigm for consumer-resource dynamics due to the oscillatory nature of the host-pathogen life cycle, the abundance of rich data to test theory, and public health relevance. The dynamics of measles in London, in particular, has acted as a prototypical test bed for such analysis using incidence data ...[more]

PMID: 31513578

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Project description:In the 1997-98 academic year, we conducted a longitudinal study of meningococcal carriage and acquisition among first-year students at Nottingham University, Nottingham, United Kingdom. We examined the dynamics of long-term meningococcal carriage with detailed characterization of the isolates. Pharyngeal swabs were obtained from 2,453 first-year students at the start of the academic year (October), later on during the autumn term, and again in March. Swabs were immediately cultured on selective media, and meningococci were identified and serologically characterized. Nongroupable strains were genetically grouped using a PCR-based assay. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis was used to determine the link between sequential isolates. Of the carriers initially identified in October, 44.1% (98 of 222) were still positive later on in the autumn (November or December); 57.1% of these remained persistent carriers at 6 months. Of the index carriers who lost carriage during the autumn, 16% were recolonized at 6 months. Of 344 index noncarriers followed up, 22.1% acquired carriage during the autumn term and another 13.7% acquired carriage by March. Overall, 43.9% (397 of 904) of the isolates were noncapsulated (serologically nongroupable); by PCR-based genogrouping, a quarter of these belonged to the capsular groups B and C. The ratio of capsulated to noncapsulated forms for group B and C strains was 2.9 and 0.95, respectively. Sequential isolates of persistent carriers revealed that individuals may carry the same or entirely different organisms at different times. We identified three strains that clearly switched their capsular expression on and off at different times in vivo. One student developed invasive meningococcal disease after carrying the same organism for over 7 weeks. The study revealed a high rate of turnover of meningococcal carriage among students. Noncapsulated organisms are capable of switching their capsular expression on and off (both ways) in the nasopharynx, and group C strains are more likely to be noncapsulated than group B strains. Carriage of a particular meningococcal strain does not necessarily protect against colonization or invasion by a homologous or heterologous strain.

Dataset Information

Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.

Publications

Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.

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